{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,4]],"date-time":"2026-08-04T06:30:57Z","timestamp":1785825057599,"version":"3.56.0"},"reference-count":29,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"18","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,16]],"date-time":"2020-10-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1602806400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/journals\/pages\/open_access\/funder_policies\/chorus\/standard_publication_model"}],"funder":[{"name":"Health Research Council of NZ","award":["3\/183, 08\/121"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["3\/183, 08\/121"]}]},{"name":"New Zealand Heart Foundation Hynds Senior Fellow"},{"name":"New Zealand Heart Foundation Chair of Heart Health"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,9]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Aims<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Cardiovascular disease (CVD) guidelines dichotomize populations into primary and secondary prevention. We sought to develop a risk equation for secondary prevention of CVD that complements existing equations for primary prevention of CVD, and to describe the distributions of CVD risk across the population.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Methods and results<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Adults aged 30\u201379\u2009years who had routine CVD risk assessment in 2007\u201316 were identified from a large primary care cohort (PREDICT) with linkage to national and regional datasets. The 5-year risk of developing CVD among people without atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) was calculated using published equations (PREDICT-1\u00b0). A new risk equation (PREDICT-2\u00b0) was developed from Cox regression models to estimate the 5-year risk of CVD event recurrence among patients with known ASCVD. The outcome for both equations was hospitalization for a CVD event or cardiovascular death. Of the 475 161 patients, 12% (57\u2009061) had ASCVD. For those without ASCVD, median (interquartile range) 5-year risks with the PREDICT-1\u00b0 score were women 2.2% (1.2\u20134.2%), men 3.5% (2.0\u20136.6%), and whole group 2.9% (1.6\u20135.5%). For those with ASCVD, the 5-year risks with the new PREDICT-2\u00b0 equation were women 21% (15\u201333%), men 23% (16\u201335%), and whole group 22% (16\u201334%).<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>We developed CVD risk scores for people with ASCVD (PREDICT-2\u00b0) to complement the PREDICT-1\u00b0 scores. Median CVD risk is eight-fold higher among those with ASCVD than those without; however, there was overlap and the widest distribution of CVD risk was among people with ASCVD. This study describes a CVD risk continuum and the limitations of a \u2018one size fits all\u2019 approach to assessing risk in people with ASCVD.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/eurjpc\/zwaa098","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,1,1]],"date-time":"2021-01-01T04:13:55Z","timestamp":1609474435000},"page":"2010-2017","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":8,"title":["Predicting cardiovascular disease risk across the atherosclerotic disease continuum"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"28","author":[{"given":"Katrina K","family":"Poppe","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Section of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland 1142, New Zealand"},{"name":"Department of Medicine, University of Auckland, Auckland 1142, New Zealand"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sue","family":"Wells","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Section of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland 1142, New Zealand"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rod","family":"Jackson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Section of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland 1142, New Zealand"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Robert N","family":"Doughty","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medicine, University of Auckland, Auckland 1142, New Zealand"},{"name":"Green Lane Cardiovascular Service, Auckland City Hospital, Auckland 1142, New Zealand"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Andrew J","family":"Kerr","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Section of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland 1142, New Zealand"},{"name":"Cardiology Service, Counties Manukau District Health Board, Auckland 1640, New 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