{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,28]],"date-time":"2026-09-28T16:19:36Z","timestamp":1790612376014,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":38,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,26]],"date-time":"2025-12-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1766707200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"SIRIUS","award":["NCT05974345"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NCT05974345"]}]},{"name":"Novartis Pharma SAS"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Aims<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Inclisiran, an siRNA-targeting hepatic PCSK9 mRNA, reduces low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), but its effect on major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) remains unconfirmed. The SIRIUS in-silico modelling programme aimed to predict the efficacy of inclisiran on MACE in virtual patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods and results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The SIRIUS simulation (NCT05974345) used a validated mechanistic model of ASCVD and lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) effects in a virtual population with established ASCVD and LDL-C \u2265 70\u2005mg\/dL. Each virtual patient served as their own control to compare inclisiran vs. placebo as an adjunct to high-intensity statin therapy, alone or with ezetimibe over 5 years. The model did not account for non-adherence, recurrent events, or adverse effects. Among 204 691 virtual patients, inclisiran was predicted to reduce LDL-C by 49.7% vs. placebo (from 91.1 to 48.3\u2005mg\/dL). Relative to placebo, inclisiran was predicted to lower 5 years risk of 3-point MACE by 25.2% (11.3% vs. 14.9%), myocardial infarction by 34.8% [5.7% vs. 8.6%; hazard ratio (HR) 0.65], ischaemic stroke by 26% (2.6% vs. 3.4%; HR 0.74), and major adverse limb event by 34.1% (0.5% vs. 0.8%; HR 0.66). A 7.1% relative reduction of cardiovascular death was predicted (4.2% vs. 4.5%; HR 0.93).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>SIRIUS is the first in-silico simulation using a knowledge-based mechanistic model to predict the efficacy of LLT on cardiovascular outcomes in ASCVD. These findings offer an early model-based prediction of inclisiran\u2019s potential cardiovascular benefit ahead of Phase 3 outcome trials.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Lay summary<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The SIRIUS in-silico simulation used a validated knowledge-based mechanistic computational model to computationally simulate inclisiran efficacy on 5-year MACE in 204 691 virtual patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD).Mean predicted percentage reduction in LDL-C with inclisiran vs. placebo was 49.7% at 5 years, with a 25.2% reduction in 3-point MACE.This simulation provides early insights into the potential effect of inclisiran on cardiovascular event reduction in advance of results from ongoing Phase 3 trial.<\/jats:p>\n                  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