{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,19]],"date-time":"2026-08-19T18:29:30Z","timestamp":1787164170714,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":24,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,10]],"date-time":"2026-08-10T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1786320000000},"content-version":"am","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100004312","name":"Eli Lilly and Company","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100004312","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Aims<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>This post hoc analysis assessed the durability of tirzepatide for primary cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention in obesity, based on predicted CVD risk, in the SURMOUNT-1 (SM-1) 3-year study.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods and results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>SM-1 was a phase 3, double-blind, randomized trial where individuals with obesity\/overweight and prediabetes received tirzepatide (5, 10, and 15\u2005mg) or placebo for 176 weeks. Predicted 10-year CVD risk was calculated using the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) equation. The use of the FHS equation to predict treatment effect [model-derived hazard ratio (HR)] was examined for consistency with the observed cardiovascular events in the REWIND trial. In SM-1, 2539 participants were randomized, 1032 of those had prediabetes, 976 did not have pre-existing CVD, and 962 participants had baseline and at least one post-baseline predicted CVD risk score for this post hoc analysis. For these participants, receiving tirzepatide 15\u2005mg was associated with a reduction in the predicted 10-year CVD risk at week 72 (absolute risk reduction, \u22121.92%), while placebo was associated with increased risk (absolute risk increase, 1.10%) (P &amp;lt; 0.001; HR = 0.73). At week 176, tirzepatide-treated participants had a predicted risk reduction (absolute risk reduction, \u22121.31%), while predicted risk in placebo increased (absolute risk increase, 3.84%) from baseline (P &amp;lt; 0.001; HR = 0.62).<\/jats:p>\n                    <jats:p>To test the predictability of FHS risk equations for treatment effect, REWIND data suggested that the HR for dulaglutide vs. placebo based on risk prediction is consistent with the HR based on observed cardiovascular events (HR 0.83 and 0.85, respectively).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>These findings suggest that tirzepatide was associated with a lower predicted 10-year CVD risk vs. placebo with long-term (3 years) treatment in individuals with obesity\/overweight and prediabetes. The risk equation\u2019s predictive performance for treatment effect was supported by observed CVD events in the REWIND trial. The potential benefit of tirzepatide for primary CVD prevention needs to be confirmed in event-based cardiovascular outcomes trials such as SURMOUNT-MMO.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/eurjpc\/zwag408","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,1]],"date-time":"2026-08-01T12:08:00Z","timestamp":1785586080000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk reduction with tirzepatide use over 3 years for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in obesity"],"prefix":"10.1093","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1604-2593","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Naveed","family":"Sattar","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Health, BHF Glasgow Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow , 126 University Place, Glasgow G12 8TA 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Indianapolis, IN ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Leonard","family":"Glass","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Eli Lilly and Company , Indianapolis, IN ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rachel L","family":"Batterham","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Eli Lilly and Company , Indianapolis, IN ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Georgios K","family":"Dimitriadis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Eli Lilly and Company , Indianapolis, IN ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hong","family":"Liu-Seifert","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Eli Lilly and Company , Indianapolis, IN 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