{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,22]],"date-time":"2026-10-22T03:44:02Z","timestamp":1792640642983,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,21]],"date-time":"2026-10-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1792540800000},"content-version":"am","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/pages\/standard-publication-reuse-rights"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Aims<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Heat and cold stress are established cardiovascular risk factors. As climate patterns shift and Europe\u2019s population ages, quantifying their separate attributable fractions\u2014and projecting future temperature-attributable cardiovascular disease (tCVD) burden\u2014is essential for clinical and policy decision-making.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods and results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Europe was divided into a 0.25\u00b0 \u00d7 0.25\u00b0 grid (12 411 land cells across 37 countries). Annual cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths (2016\u201323) were downscaled from national estimates using population data. Temperature\u2013mortality relative risk coefficients were drawn from a 27-country pooled study and applied via population attributable fractions with 1000 Monte Carlo simulations. Daily mean temperature projections from five bias-corrected climate models were obtained under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and high (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios. Population ageing was incorporated using country-level age projections; climate-only analyses held age structure constant at 2020 levels. At baseline, non-optimal temperature accounted for 168 586 (144 961\u2013192 293) CVD deaths annually [31.4 (27.0\u201335.8) per 100 000], with a cold-to-heat ratio of 5:1. Under SSP5-8.5, total tCVD mortality is projected to nearly double to 62.4 (48.5\u201376.2) per 100 000 by late-century [441 772 (343 627\u2013540 116) annual deaths], with heat-attributable rates projected to rise 472%. Population ageing may amplify total projected mortality by over 80% by late-century beyond climate change alone; without ageing, cold-attributable rates may decline over the century rather than rise.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Temperature-attributable cardiovascular disease mortality across Europe is projected to double by late-century, driven by dramatic heat increases and substantially amplified by population ageing. These findings support greater integration of temperature-related CVD risk into clinical practice and public health policy.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/eurjpc\/zwag533","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,19]],"date-time":"2026-10-19T15:22:47Z","timestamp":1792423367000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Temperature-attributable cardiovascular mortality in Europe under future climate scenarios: projected impacts of population ageing and climate change to 2080"],"prefix":"10.1093","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2190-3386","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gokul","family":"Parameswaran","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Cardiovascular Research Institute, Case Western Reserve School of Medicine , 11100 Euclid Avenue, Cleveland, OH 44106, USA"},{"name":"Harrington Heart and Vascular Institute, University Hospitals , 11100 Euclid Avenue, Cleveland, OH 44106, 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