{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,17]],"date-time":"2026-08-17T23:19:38Z","timestamp":1787008778241,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":17,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,4]],"date-time":"2023-01-04T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1672790400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"European Research Council"},{"name":"European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020","award":["648131"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["648131"]}]},{"name":"European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020","award":["847770"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["847770"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100010447","name":"German Center for Cardiovascular Research","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["81Z1710103"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["81Z1710103"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100010447","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100010447","name":"German Center for Cardiovascular Research","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["81Z0710114"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["81Z0710114"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100010447","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"name":"German Ministry of Research and Education","award":["01ZX1408A"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["01ZX1408A"]}]},{"name":"German Ministry of Research and Education","award":["031L0239"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["031L0239"]}]},{"name":"German Ministry of Research and Education","award":["BMH4-CT98-3183"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["BMH4-CT98-3183"]}]},{"name":"German Ministry of Research and Education","award":["QLG2-CT-2002-01254"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["QLG2-CT-2002-01254"]}]},{"name":"German Ministry of Research and Education","award":["HEALTH-F4-2007-201413"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["HEALTH-F4-2007-201413"]}]},{"name":"German Ministry of Research and Education","award":["HEALTH-F3-2010-242244"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["HEALTH-F3-2010-242244"]}]},{"name":"German Ministry of Research and Education","award":["HEALTH-F2-2011-278913"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["HEALTH-F2-2011-278913"]}]},{"name":"German Ministry of Research and Education","award":["825903"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["825903"]}]},{"name":"Medical Research Council, London","award":["G0601463"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["G0601463"]}]},{"name":"Medical Research Council, London","award":["80983"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["80983"]}]},{"name":"MORGAM Data Centre"},{"name":"MORGAM Laboratories"},{"name":"MORGAM Participating Centres"},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100014578","name":"National Institute for Health and Welfare","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100014578","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100005633","name":"Finnish Foundation for Cardiovascular Research","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100005633","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004756","name":"Emil Aaltonen Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004756","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100002341","name":"Academy of Finland","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["321351"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["321351"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100002341","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100002341","name":"Academy of Finland","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["European Union"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["European Union"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100002341","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"name":"Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation"},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003196","name":"Ministero della Salute","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003196","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,30]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Aims<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>To identify robust circulating predictors for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) using classical regressions and machine learning (ML) techniques within a broad spectrum of candidate variables.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods and results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>In pooled European community cohorts (n = 42 280 individuals), 14 routinely available biomarkers mirroring distinct pathophysiological pathways including lipids, inflammation, renal, and myocardium-specific markers (N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP], high-sensitivity troponin I [hsTnI]) were examined in relation to incident AF using Cox regressions and distinct ML methods. Of 42 280 individuals (21 843 women [51.7%]; median [interquartile range, IQR] age, 52.2 [42.7, 62.0] years), 1496 (3.5%) developed AF during a median follow-up time of 5.7 years. In multivariable-adjusted Cox-regression analysis, NT-proBNP was the strongest circulating predictor of incident AF [hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD), 1.93 (95% CI, 1.82\u20132.04); P &amp;lt; 0.001]. Further, hsTnI [HR per SD, 1.18 (95% CI, 1.13\u20131.22); P &amp;lt; 0.001], cystatin C [HR per SD, 1.16 (95% CI, 1.10\u20131.23); P &amp;lt; 0.001], and C-reactive protein [HR per SD, 1.08 (95% CI, 1.02\u20131.14); P = 0.012] correlated positively with incident AF. Applying various ML techniques, a high inter-method consistency of selected candidate variables was observed. NT-proBNP was identified as the blood-based marker with the highest predictive value for incident AF. Relevant clinical predictors were age, the use of antihypertensive medication, and body mass index.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Using different variable selection procedures including ML methods, NT-proBNP consistently remained the strongest blood-based predictor of incident AF and ranked before classical cardiovascular risk factors. The clinical benefit of these findings for identifying at-risk individuals for targeted AF screening needs to be elucidated and tested prospectively.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/europace\/euac260","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,15]],"date-time":"2022-12-15T18:01:29Z","timestamp":1671127289000},"page":"812-819","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":20,"title":["Exploring the incremental utility of circulating biomarkers for robust risk prediction of incident atrial fibrillation in European cohorts using regressions and modern machine learning methods"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"25","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5233-0680","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Bet\u00fcl","family":"Toprak","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf , Martinistra\u00dfe 52, 20246 Hamburg , Germany"},{"name":"German Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner Site, Hamburg\/Kiel\/Luebeck , Potsdamer Stra\u00dfe 58, 10785 Berlin , Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Stephanie","family":"Brandt","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf , Martinistra\u00dfe 52, 20246 Hamburg , Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1457-9255","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jan","family":"Brederecke","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf , Martinistra\u00dfe 52, 20246 Hamburg , Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4615-0816","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Francesco","family":"Gianfagna","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medicine and Surgery, Research Center in Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine (EPIMED), University of Insubria , Via Rossi 9, 21100 Varese , Italy"},{"name":"Mediterranea Cardiocentro , Via Orazio 2, 80122 Napoli , Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1762-7750","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Julie K K","family":"Vishram-Nielsen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Clinical Research and Prevention, Bispebjerg and Frederiksberg Hospital, The Capital Region of Denmark , Nordre Fasanvej 57, 2000 Frederiksberg , Denmark"},{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Rigshospitalet, University Hospital of Copenhagen , Blegdamsvej 9, 2100 Copenhagen , Denmark"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4037-144X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Francisco M","family":"Ojeda","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf , Martinistra\u00dfe 52, 20246 Hamburg , Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4569-1186","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Simona","family":"Costanzo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Prevention, IRCCS Neuromed , Via dell\u00b4 Elettronica, 86077 Pozzilli , Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9920-0229","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Christin S","family":"B\u00f6rschel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf , Martinistra\u00dfe 52, 20246 Hamburg , Germany"},{"name":"German Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner Site, Hamburg\/Kiel\/Luebeck , Potsdamer Stra\u00dfe 58, 10785 Berlin , Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9225-1306","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Stefan","family":"S\u00f6derberg","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, and Heart Centre, Ume\u00e5 University , SE-901 87 Ume\u00e5 , Sweden"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ioannis","family":"Katsoularis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, and Heart Centre, Ume\u00e5 University , SE-901 87 Ume\u00e5 , 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