{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,28]],"date-time":"2026-09-28T18:28:57Z","timestamp":1790620137061,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"Supplement_1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,27]],"date-time":"2021-08-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1630022400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/journals\/pages\/open_access\/funder_policies\/chorus\/standard_publication_model"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,27]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Pandemics threaten lives and economies. This article addresses the global threat of the anticipated overlap of COVID-19 with seasonal-influenza.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Objectives<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Scientific evidence based on simulation methodology is presented to reveal the impact of a dual outbreak, with scenarios intended for propagation analysis. This article aims at researchers, clinicians of family medicine, general practice and policy-makers worldwide. The implications for the clinical practice of primary health care are discussed. Current research is an effort to explore new directions in epidemiology and health services delivery.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Projections consisted of machine learning, dynamic modelling algorithms and whole simulations. Input data consisted of global indicators of infectious diseases. Four simulations were run for \u201820% versus 60% flu-vaccinated populations\u2019 and \u201810 versus 20 personal contacts\u2019. Outputs consisted of numerical values and mathematical graphs. Outputs consisted of numbers for \u2018never infected\u2019, \u2018vaccinated\u2019, \u2018infected\/recovered\u2019, \u2018symptomatic\/asymptomatic\u2019 and \u2018deceased\u2019 individuals. Peaks, percentages, R0, durations are reported.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>The best-case scenario was one with a higher flu-vaccination rate and fewer contacts. The reverse generated the worst outcomes, likely to disrupt the provision of vital community services. Both measures were proven effective; however, results demonstrated that \u2018increasing flu-vaccination rates\u2019 is a more powerful strategy than \u2018limiting social contacts\u2019.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Results support two affordable preventive measures: (i) to globally increase influenza-vaccination rates, (ii) to limit the number of personal contacts during outbreaks. The authors endorse changing practices and research incentives towards multidisciplinary collaborations. The urgency of the situation is a call for international health policy to promote interdisciplinary modern technologies in public health engineering.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/fampra\/cmab058","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,5,18]],"date-time":"2021-05-18T19:11:35Z","timestamp":1621365095000},"page":"i16-i22","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["COVID-19 and the flu: data simulations and computational modelling to guide public health strategies"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"38","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4965-9231","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Verda","family":"Tunaligil","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"SIMMERK Medical Simulation Center, Division of Public Health and Department of Emergency, Disaster Medical Services, TR MoH Health Directorate of Istanbul , Istanbul , Turkey"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0567-7702","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gulsen","family":"Meral","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"President\u2019s Office and Department of Pediatrics, Nutrigenetics and Epigenetics Association , Istanbul , Turkey"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0200-5409","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mustafa Resat","family":"Dabak","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Family Medicine, Divisions of Residency Training Programs and Clinical Practice Chieftaincy, TR MoH Haseki Research and Training Hospital , Istanbul , Turkey"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3332-7304","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mehmet","family":"Canbulat","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Data Management, Turkish Airlines , Istanbul , Turkey"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2086-9953","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"S\u0131dd\u0131ka Semahat","family":"Demir","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"President\u2019s Office and Departments of Biomedical, Electrical, Computer Engineering, Science Heroes Association , Istanbul , Turkey"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"2022060314444763900_CIT0001","volume-title":"Newsroom, Fact Sheets, Media Briefings, Opening Remarks by Director General Dr. T. 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