{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,1]],"date-time":"2026-10-01T04:47:24Z","timestamp":1790830044086,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":33,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,8,1]],"date-time":"2020-08-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1596240000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/journals\/pages\/open_access\/funder_policies\/chorus\/standard_publication_model"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100006364","name":"Institut National du Cancer","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["N\u00b02016-192"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["N\u00b02016-192"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100006364","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,8,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>Cancer-incidence and mortality-trend analyses require appropriate statistical modelling. In countries without a nationwide cancer registry, an additional issue is estimating national incidence from local-registry data. The objectives of this study were to (i) promote the use of multidimensional penalized splines (MPS) for trend analyses; (ii) estimate the national cancer-incidence trends, using MPS, from only local-registry data; and (iii) propose a validation process of these estimates.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>We used an MPS model of age and year for trend analyses in France over 1990\u20132015 with a projection up to 2018. Validation was performed for 22 cancer sites and relied essentially on comparison with reference estimates that used the incidence\/health-care ratio over the period 2011\u20132015. Alternative estimates that used the incidence\/mortality ratio were also used to validate the trends.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>In the validation assessment, the relative differences of the incidence estimates (2011\u20132015) with the reference estimates were &amp;lt;5% except for testis cancer in men and &amp;lt; 7% except for larynx cancer in women. Trends could be correctly derived since 1990 despite incomplete histories in some registries. The proposed method was applied to estimate the incidence and mortality trends of female lung cancer and prostate cancer in France.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>The validation process confirmed the validity of the national French estimates; it may be applied in other countries to help in choosing the most appropriate national estimation method according to country-specific contexts. MPS form a powerful statistical tool for trend analyses; they allow trends to vary smoothly with age and are suitable for modelling simple as well as complex trends thanks to penalization. Detailed trend analyses of lung and prostate cancers illustrated the suitability of MPS and the epidemiological interest of such analyses.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyaa078","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,4,14]],"date-time":"2020-04-14T11:10:00Z","timestamp":1586862600000},"page":"1294-1306","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":20,"title":["Multidimensional penalized splines for incidence and mortality-trend analyses and validation of national cancer-incidence estimates"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"49","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9993-7121","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Zo\u00e9","family":"Uhry","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Direction des Maladies Non Transmissibles et des Traumatismes, Sant\u00e9 Publique France, Saint-Maurice, France"},{"name":"Service de Biostatistique-Bioinformatique, P\u00f4le Sant\u00e9 Publique, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Edouard","family":"Chatignoux","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Direction des Maladies Non Transmissibles et des Traumatismes, Sant\u00e9 Publique France, Saint-Maurice, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Emmanuelle","family":"Dantony","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Service de Biostatistique-Bioinformatique, P\u00f4le Sant\u00e9 Publique, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon, France"},{"name":"Laboratoire de Biom\u00e9trie et Biologie \u00c9volutive, UMR 5558, CNRS, Universit\u00e9 Lyon 1, Universit\u00e9 de Lyon, Villeurbanne, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Marc","family":"Colonna","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Registre des cancers de l\u2019Is\u00e8re, Grenoble, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Laurent","family":"Roche","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Service de Biostatistique-Bioinformatique, P\u00f4le Sant\u00e9 Publique, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon, France"},{"name":"Laboratoire de Biom\u00e9trie et Biologie \u00c9volutive, UMR 5558, CNRS, Universit\u00e9 Lyon 1, Universit\u00e9 de Lyon, Villeurbanne, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mathieu","family":"Fauvernier","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Service de Biostatistique-Bioinformatique, P\u00f4le Sant\u00e9 Publique, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon, France"},{"name":"Laboratoire de Biom\u00e9trie et Biologie \u00c9volutive, UMR 5558, CNRS, Universit\u00e9 Lyon 1, Universit\u00e9 de Lyon, Villeurbanne, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Gautier","family":"Defossez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Registre des cancers du Poitou-Charentes, Poitiers, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sandra","family":"Leguyader-Peyrou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Registre des h\u00e9mopathies malignes de la Gironde, Institut Bergoni\u00e9, Bordeaux, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alain","family":"Monnereau","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Registre des h\u00e9mopathies malignes de la Gironde, Institut Bergoni\u00e9, Bordeaux, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Pascale","family":"Grosclaude","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Registre des cancers du Tarn Cancer, Institut Claudius Regaud, Institut universitaire du cancer de Toulouse Oncopole (IUCT-O), Toulouse, France"},{"name":"Laboratoire d'Epid\u00e9miologie et Analyses en Sant\u00e9 Publique (LEASP), UMR 1027, Inserm; Universit\u00e9 Toulouse III, Toulouse, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nadine","family":"Bossard","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Service de Biostatistique-Bioinformatique, P\u00f4le Sant\u00e9 Publique, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon, France"},{"name":"Laboratoire de Biom\u00e9trie et Biologie \u00c9volutive, UMR 5558, CNRS, Universit\u00e9 Lyon 1, Universit\u00e9 de Lyon, Villeurbanne, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Laurent","family":"Remontet","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Service de Biostatistique-Bioinformatique, P\u00f4le Sant\u00e9 Publique, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon, France"},{"name":"Laboratoire de Biom\u00e9trie et Biologie \u00c9volutive, UMR 5558, CNRS, Universit\u00e9 Lyon 1, Universit\u00e9 de Lyon, Villeurbanne, 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