{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,21]],"date-time":"2025-02-21T09:32:23Z","timestamp":1740130343655,"version":"3.37.3"},"reference-count":37,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,12]],"date-time":"2021-03-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1615507200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/journals\/pages\/open_access\/funder_policies\/chorus\/standard_publication_model"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,30]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>There is a real possibility of successive COVID-19-epidemic waves with devastating consequences. In this context, it has become mandatory to design age-selective measures aimed at achieving an optimal balance between protecting public health and maintaining a viable economic activity.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>We programmed a Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Removed (SEIR) model in order to introduce epidemiologically relevant age classes into the outbreak-dynamics analysis. The model was fitted to the official death toll and calculated age distribution of deaths in Wuhan using a constrained linear least-squares algorithm. Subsequently, we used synthetic location-specific and age-structured contact matrices to quantify the effect of age-selective interventions both on mortality and on economic activity in Wuhan. For this purpose, we simulated four different scenarios ranging from an absence of measures to age-selective interventions with stronger physical-distancing measures for older individuals.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>An age-selective strategy could reduce the death toll by &amp;gt;30% compared with the non-selective measures applied during Wuhan\u2019s lockdown for the same workforce. Moreover, an alternative age-selective strategy could allow a 5-fold increase in the population working on site without a detrimental impact on the death toll compared with the Wuhan scenario.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Our results suggest that age-selective-distancing measures focused on the older population could have achieved a better balance between COVID-19 mortality and economic activity during the first COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan. However, the implications of this need to be interpreted along with considerations of the practical feasibility and potential wider benefits and drawbacks of such a strategy.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyab043","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,2,18]],"date-time":"2021-02-18T12:43:36Z","timestamp":1613652216000},"page":"1114-1123","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Impact of age-selective vs non-selective physical-distancing measures against coronavirus disease 2019: a mathematical modelling study"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"50","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4990-1075","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Daniel","family":"Ortega-Quijano","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto Ram\u00f3n y Cajal de Investigaci\u00f3n Sanitaria (IRYCIS), Ctra. de Colmenar Viejo, km. 9.100, 28034 Madrid, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5446-1214","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Noe","family":"Ortega-Quijano","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Deneb Medical. Paseo de Miram\u00f3n, 170, 20014, San Sebasti\u00e1n, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,12]]},"reference":[{"year":"2020","key":"2021083121312405900_dyab043-B1"},{"year":"2020","key":"2021083121312405900_dyab043-B2"},{"year":"2020","key":"2021083121312405900_dyab043-B3"},{"year":"2020","key":"2021083121312405900_dyab043-B4"},{"year":"2020","key":"2021083121312405900_dyab043-B5"},{"key":"2021083121312405900_dyab043-B6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e279","DOI":"10.1016\/S2468-2667(20)30090-6","article-title":"Impact assessment of non-pharmaceutical interventions against coronavirus disease 2019 and influenza in Hong Kong: an observational study","volume":"5","author":"Cowling","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet Public Health"},{"key":"2021083121312405900_dyab043-B7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1382","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30746-7","article-title":"First-wave 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