{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,1]],"date-time":"2026-04-01T11:23:13Z","timestamp":1775042593634,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":28,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,22]],"date-time":"2022-10-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1666396800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Data and Connectivity National Core Study"},{"name":"Health Data Research UK"},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100018517","name":"Office for National Statistics","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100018517","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100014013","name":"UK Research and Innovation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["MC_PC_20058"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["MC_PC_20058"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100014013","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"The Honest Broker Service"},{"name":"Business Services Organisation"},{"name":"Department of Health for Northern Ireland"},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000265","name":"Medical Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["MR\/V028367\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["MR\/V028367\/1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000265","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Health Data Research UK","award":["HDR-9006"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["HDR-9006"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000265","name":"UK Medical Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000265","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000266","name":"Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000266","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000269","name":"Economic and Social Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000269","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000276","name":"Department of Health and Social Care","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000276","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates, Health and Social Care Research and Development Division"},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001626","name":"Public Health Agency","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001626","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000274","name":"British Heart Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000274","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100010269","name":"Wellcome Trust","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100010269","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000269","name":"Economic and Social Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000269","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100014013","name":"UK Research and Innovation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100014013","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"ADR UK","award":["ES\/S007393\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ES\/S007393\/1"]}]},{"name":"Wales COVID-19 Evidence Centre"},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100012068","name":"Health and Care Research Wales","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100012068","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,2,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Several SARS-CoV-2 vaccines have been shown to provide protection against COVID-19 hospitalization and death. However, some evidence suggests that notable waning in effectiveness against these outcomes occurs within months of vaccination. We undertook a pooled analysis across the four nations of the UK to investigate waning in vaccine effectiveness (VE) and relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) against severe COVID-19 outcomes.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>We carried out a target trial design for first\/second doses of ChAdOx1(Oxford\u2013AstraZeneca) and BNT162b2 (Pfizer\u2013BioNTech) with a composite outcome of COVID-19 hospitalization or death over the period 8\u00a0December\u00a02020 to 30\u00a0June\u00a02021. Exposure groups were matched by age, local authority area and propensity for vaccination. We pooled event counts across the four UK nations.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>For Doses 1 and 2 of ChAdOx1 and Dose 1 of BNT162b2, VE\/rVE reached zero by approximately Days 60\u201380 and then went negative. By Day 70, VE\/rVE was \u201325% (95% CI: \u201380 to 14) and 10% (95% CI: \u201332 to 39) for Doses 1 and 2 of ChAdOx1, respectively, and 42% (95% CI: 9 to 64) and 53% (95% CI: 26 to 70) for Doses 1 and 2 of BNT162b2, respectively. rVE for Dose 2 of BNT162b2 remained above zero throughout and reached 46% (95% CI: 13 to 67) after 98\u2009days of follow-up.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>We found strong evidence of waning in VE\/rVE for Doses 1 and 2 of ChAdOx1, as well as Dose 1 of BNT162b2. This evidence may be used to inform policies on timings of additional doses of vaccine.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyac199","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,22]],"date-time":"2022-10-22T22:37:29Z","timestamp":1666478249000},"page":"22-31","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":20,"title":["Waning of first- and second-dose ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccinations: a pooled target trial study of 12.9 million individuals in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"52","author":[{"given":"Steven","family":"Kerr","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Medical Informatics, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Stuart","family":"Bedston","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea University , Swansea, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Declan T","family":"Bradley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Medicine, Dentistry and Biomedical Sciences, Queen\u2019s University Belfast , Belfast, UK"},{"name":"Public Health Agency , Belfast, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mark","family":"Joy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford , Oxford, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9362-0046","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Emily","family":"Lowthian","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea University , Swansea, UK"},{"name":"Department of Education and Childhood Studies, Swansea University , Swansea, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Rachel M","family":"Mulholland","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Medical Informatics, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0814-0801","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ashley","family":"Akbari","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea University , Swansea, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"F D Richard","family":"Hobbs","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford , Oxford, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6593-9092","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Srinivasa Vittal","family":"Katikireddi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"MRC\/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow , Glasgow, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8553-2641","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Simon","family":"de Lusignan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford , Oxford, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Igor","family":"Rudan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Medical Informatics, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Fatemeh","family":"Torabi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea University , Swansea, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ruby S M","family":"Tsang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford , Oxford, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ronan A","family":"Lyons","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Population Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea University , Swansea, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Chris","family":"Robertson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Public Health Scotland , Glasgow, UK"},{"name":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde , Glasgow, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Aziz","family":"Sheikh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Medical Informatics, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh, UK"},{"name":"BREATHE\u2014The Health Data Research Hub for Respiratory Health, The University of Edinburgh , Edinburgh, 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