{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,23]],"date-time":"2026-06-23T08:30:38Z","timestamp":1782203438564,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":31,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,25]],"date-time":"2026-01-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1769299200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":23,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Italian Workers\u2019 Compensation Authority (INAIL), Rome, Italy","award":["BRiC 66\/2022"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["BRiC 66\/2022"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,2]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Italy, among the leading asbestos producers and users until the national ban in 1992, continues to register a high burden of asbestos-related diseases, mainly due to their long latency and delays in remediation. This study investigates the spatio-temporal evolution of pleural mesothelioma (PM) mortality over the past 40\u2009years.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Materials and methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Malignant pleural tumours and PM deaths (1980\u20132020) were extracted from the national death registry, adjusted for misclassification of pleural tumours, and analysed by region and birth cohort (1905\u20131984). The analyses by calendar period and cohort, stratified by sex assigned at birth, were followed by a space-cohort Bayesian Hierarchical Model with structured random effects for time (cohorts up to 1960\u20131969) and space (administrative regions).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>In Italy, from 1980 to 2020, 35 134 people died from PM (24 380 males and 10 754 females). A mortality decrease was observed in males after 2010\u201314 and in females after 2000\u20134. Mortality steadily declined in both males and females across cohorts after 1935\u201344. The space\u2013time analysis enabled the clear identification of the Italian regions most affected by PM.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Italy\u2019s trend mirrors those of other Western countries that have banned asbestos, with the highest risks for birth cohorts in working age before the ban. The results reveal distinct spatio-temporal patterns, with the northern regions exhibiting the highest rates. The Italian experience with asbestos-related diseases detection could help other countries to assess the impact of asbestos, raise awareness, and promote a global ban on asbestos.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyaf227","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,9]],"date-time":"2026-01-09T12:51:26Z","timestamp":1767963086000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Spatio-temporal trends in pleural mesothelioma mortality in Italy: a 40-year analysis by calendar period and birth cohort"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"55","author":[{"given":"Allegra","family":"Sartore","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Unit of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Public Health, DCTVPH, University of Padova , Padua,","place":["Italy"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Giorgia","family":"Stoppa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Unit of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Public Health, DCTVPH, University of Padova , Padua,","place":["Italy"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Giada","family":"Minelli","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Statistical Service, Italian National Institute of Health , Rome,","place":["Italy"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6465-1780","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lucia","family":"Fazzo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Environment and Health, Italian National Institute of Health , Rome,","place":["Italy"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Valerio","family":"Manno","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Statistical Service, Italian National Institute of Health , Rome,","place":["Italy"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Carolina","family":"Mensi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Occupational Health Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Ca\u2019 Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico , Milan,","place":["Italy"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alessandro","family":"Marinaccio","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Epidemiology and Hygiene Department, Italian Workers\u2019 Compensation Authority (INAIL) , Rome,","place":["Italy"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Annibale","family":"Biggeri","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Unit of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Public Health, DCTVPH, University of Padova , Padua,","place":["Italy"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dolores","family":"Catelan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Unit of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Public Health, DCTVPH, University of Padova , Padua,","place":["Italy"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B1","volume-title":"Some inorganic and organometallic compounds","author":"IARC Working Group on the Evaluation of the Carcinogenic Risk of Chemicals to Man\u2014Asbestos","year":"1973"},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B2","first-page":"11","article-title":"Arsenic, metals, fibres, and dusts","volume":"100","author":"IARC Working Group on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans","year":"2012","journal-title":"IARC Monogr Eval Carcinog Risks Hum"},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B3","author":"International Ban Asbestos Secretariat."},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1804","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph18041804","article-title":"Development of the \u201cNational Asbestos Profile\u201d to eliminate asbestos-related diseases in 195 countries","volume":"18","author":"Arachi","year":"2021","journal-title":"Int J Environ Res Public Health"},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"489","DOI":"10.1097\/CEJ.0b013e32832f9bee","article-title":"The health impact of nonoccupational exposure to asbestos: what do we know?","volume":"18","author":"Goldberg","year":"2009","journal-title":"Eur J Cancer Prev"},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B6","volume-title":"Il Registro Nazionale Dei Mesoteliomi (ReNaM)","author":"Marinaccio","year":"2024"},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"10012","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph181910012","article-title":"Burden of mortality from asbestos-related diseases in Italy","volume":"18","author":"Fazzo","year":"2021","journal-title":"Int J Environ Res Public Health"},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5957","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph20115957","article-title":"The epidemiological surveillance of mesothelioma mortality in Italy as a tool for the prevention of asbestos exposure","volume":"20","author":"Fazzo","year":"2023","journal-title":"Int J Environ Res Public Health"},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2555","DOI":"10.1002\/1097-0258(20000915\/30)19:17\/18&lt;2555::AID-SIM587&gt;3.0.CO;2-%23","article-title":"Bayesian modelling of inseparable space-time variation in disease risk","volume":"19","author":"Knorr-Held","year":"2000","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00116466","article-title":"Bayesian image restoration, with two applications in spatial statistics","volume":"43","author":"Besag","year":"1991","journal-title":"Ann Inst Stat Math"},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1919","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.2063","article-title":"Space-time models with time-dependent covariates for the analysis of the temporal lag between socioeconomic factors and lung cancer mortality","volume":"24","author":"Dreassi","year":"2005","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"607","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph17020607","article-title":"Predictions of mortality from pleural mesothelioma in Italy after the ban of asbestos use","volume":"17","author":"Oddone","year":"2020","journal-title":"Int J Environ Res Public Health"},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"142","DOI":"10.1002\/ijc.20820","article-title":"Predictions of mortality from pleural mesothelioma in Italy: a model based on asbestos consumption figures supports results from age-period-cohort models","volume":"115","author":"Marinaccio","year":"2005","journal-title":"Int J Cancer"},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3338","DOI":"10.3390\/cancers13133338","article-title":"Effect of asbestos consumption on malignant pleural mesothelioma in Italy: forecasts of mortality up to 2040","volume":"13","author":"Oddone","year":"2021","journal-title":"Cancers (Basel)"},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B15","first-page":"27","article-title":"Asbestos exposure in the non-asbestos textile industry: the experience of the Lombardy Mesothelioma Registry","volume":"31","author":"Mensi","year":"2007","journal-title":"Epidemiol Prev"},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"108968","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envres.2019.108968","article-title":"Impact of an asbestos cement factory on mesothelioma incidence in a community in Italy","volume":"183","author":"Consonni","year":"2020","journal-title":"Environ Res"},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"815","DOI":"10.1136\/oem.2007.037689","article-title":"Excess of mesotheliomas after exposure to chrysotile in Balangero, Italy","volume":"65","author":"Mirabelli","year":"2008","journal-title":"Occup Environ Med"},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2636","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph17082636","article-title":"Asbestos air pollution: description of a mesothelioma cluster due to residential exposure from an asbestos cement factory","volume":"17","author":"Vimercati","year":"2020","journal-title":"Int J Environ Res Public Health"},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1401","DOI":"10.1289\/ehp.10195","article-title":"Cancer mortality and incidence of mesothelioma in a cohort of wives of asbestos workers in Casale Monferrato, Italy","volume":"115","author":"Ferrante","year":"2007","journal-title":"Environ Health Perspect"},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"103821","DOI":"10.1016\/j.critrevonc.2022.103821","article-title":"Global magnitude and temporal trend of mesothelioma burden along with the contribution of occupational asbestos exposure in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019","volume":"179","author":"Han","year":"2022","journal-title":"Crit Rev Oncol Hematol"},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"63","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejca.2020.09.011","article-title":"Mesothelioma in children and adolescents: the European Cooperative Study Group for Pediatric Rare Tumors (EXPeRT) contribution","volume":"140","author":"Orbach","year":"2020","journal-title":"Eur J Cancer"},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e5\u2013e10","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cllc.2023.10.010","article-title":"Long-term survival analysis of pleural mesothelioma patients undergoing surgery: brief report from a tertiary referral centre","volume":"25","author":"Orlandi","year":"2024","journal-title":"Clin Lung Cancer"},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1189","DOI":"10.1186\/s12885-021-08913-2","article-title":"Incidence, mortality and survival in malignant pleural mesothelioma before and after asbestos in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden","volume":"21","author":"Hemminki","year":"2021","journal-title":"BMC Cancer"},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"965","DOI":"10.1183\/09031936.00168111","article-title":"Mesothelioma incidence projections in South East England","volume":"40","author":"Riaz","year":"2012","journal-title":"Eur Respir J"},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"528","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2407-13-528","article-title":"Pleural cancer mortality in Spain: time-trends and updating of predictions up to 2020","volume":"13","author":"L\u00f3pez-Abente","year":"2013","journal-title":"BMC Cancer"},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"337","DOI":"10.1186\/s13104-018-3436-0","article-title":"Longevity and pleural mesothelioma: age-period-cohort analysis of incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program, 1973\u20132013","volume":"11","author":"Kerger","year":"2018","journal-title":"BMC Res Notes"},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"103","DOI":"10.1186\/s12940-021-00790-3","article-title":"Environmental asbestos exposure and clustering of malignant mesothelioma in community: a spatial analysis in a population-based case\u2013control study","volume":"20","author":"Airoldi","year":"2021","journal-title":"Environ Health"},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1233","DOI":"10.2138\/am.2014.4708","article-title":"Determination of the concentration of asbestos minerals in highly contaminated mine tailings: an example from abandoned mine waste of Cr\u00e8taz and \u00c8marese (Valle d\u2019Aosta, Italy)","volume":"99","author":"Gualtieri","year":"2014","journal-title":"Am Mineral"},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"607","DOI":"10.1136\/oemed-2016-103652","article-title":"Incidence of mesothelioma in Lombardy, Italy: exposure to asbestos, time patterns and future projections","volume":"73","author":"Mensi","year":"2016","journal-title":"Occup Environ Med"},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"496","DOI":"10.1016\/j.canep.2014.08.007","article-title":"Past trends and future prediction of mesothelioma incidence in an industrialized area of Italy, the Veneto Region","volume":"38","author":"Girardi","year":"2014","journal-title":"Cancer Epidemiol"},{"key":"2026012502423456400_dyaf227-B31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"205","DOI":"10.19191\/EP16.3-4.P205.087","article-title":"[Pleural mesothelioma mortality in Italy: time series reconstruction (1970-2009) and comparison with incidence (2003-2008)]","volume":"40","author":"Ferrante","year":"2016","journal-title":"Epidemiol Prev"}],"container-title":["International Journal of Epidemiology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/ije\/article-pdf\/55\/1\/dyaf227\/66568729\/dyaf227.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/ije\/article-pdf\/55\/1\/dyaf227\/66568729\/dyaf227.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,25]],"date-time":"2026-01-25T07:42:39Z","timestamp":1769326959000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/ije\/article\/doi\/10.1093\/ije\/dyaf227\/8440668"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,2]]},"references-count":31,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,2]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/ije\/dyaf227","relation":{},"ISSN":["0300-5771","1464-3685"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0300-5771","type":"print"},{"value":"1464-3685","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published-other":{"date-parts":[[2026,2]]},"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,2]]},"article-number":"dyaf227"}}