{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,19]],"date-time":"2026-10-19T15:40:37Z","timestamp":1792424437065,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":44,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,19]],"date-time":"2026-10-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1792368000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":5,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Health New Zealand | Te Whatu Ora as part of the review of the LRDG programme"},{"name":"Health New Zealand | Te Whatu Ora"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,14]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The present study aimed to estimate the alcohol-attributable mortality in Aotearoa New Zealand (Aotearoa) at varying levels of alcohol consumption to help inform low-risk-drinking guidelines (LRDGs) in Aotearoa.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We used the New Zealand Alcohol Intervention Model\u2014a multi-state life-table model parameterized with Aotearoa-specific alcohol and epidemiological data\u2014to estimate the health risks associated with a daily alcohol intake of 0\u2013100\u2009g\/day. We modelled a cohort of 12-year-olds for their life course, with exposure and disease rates fixed to 2018 levels. We used relative risk (RR) libraries developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD). The primary output was years of life lost (YLL), with 17.5 YLL used as a proxy for alcohol-related death, at lifetime-risk thresholds of 1-in-100 and 1-in-1000.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>When the WHO RR library was used, males reached a 1-in-100 risk of alcohol-attributable death at 8.6 standard drinks (SDs, 10\u2009g of ethanol) [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 3.1\u201312.0] per week, while females reach this threshold at 9.2 SDs (95% UI 3.7\u201312.4). The removal of health conditions receiving a one-star evidence rating from the GBD substantially reduced the number of SDs to 2.7 (95%\u00a0UI 2.1\u20134.6) for males and 3.5 (95%\u00a0UI 2.9\u20134.4) for females. Across all analyses, use of the GBD RR library led to more permissive results. Ethnicity-specific results showed that M\u0101ori breach the risk thresholds at lower levels of consumption than non-M\u0101ori.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Our modelling demonstrates that the Aotearoa LRDGs are outdated and need updating to reflect contemporary understandings of the harms associated with alcohol use.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyag191","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,19]],"date-time":"2026-10-19T00:01:45Z","timestamp":1792368105000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Health risks of alcohol consumption in Aotearoa New Zealand: modelling to inform low-risk-drinking guidelines"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"55","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2897-3002","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Anja","family":"Mizdrak","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health, University of Otago (Wellington) , Wellington,","place":["New Zealand"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Adam","family":"Sherk","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Canadian Centre on Substance Use and Addiction , Ottawa,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"Canadian Institute for Substance Use Research, University of Victoria , Victoria,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"School of Public Health and Social Policy, University of Victoria , Victoria,","place":["Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kristen","family":"Maynard","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Rongowhakaata, Ng\u0101ti Porou, Ng\u0101ti Kahungunu ki Te Wairoa, Ruapani, T\u016branganui-a-Kiwa,","place":["New Zealand"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5856-5600","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tim","family":"Chambers","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Ng\u0101i Tahu Research Centre, University of Canterbury , Christchurch,","place":["New Zealand"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,19]]},"reference":[{"key":"2026101911013671400_dyag191-B1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"987","DOI":"10.1016\/S2215-0366(18)30337-7","article-title":"The global burden of disease attributable to alcohol and drug use in 195 countries and territories, 1990\u20132016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016","volume":"5","author":"Degenhardt","year":"2018","journal-title":"Lancet Psychiatry"},{"key":"2026101911013671400_dyag191-B2","volume-title":"Alcohol Consumption and Ethyl 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