{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,2]],"date-time":"2026-10-02T13:17:36Z","timestamp":1790947056616,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":20,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,21]],"date-time":"2023-11-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1700524800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000780","name":"European Union","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000780","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100007601","name":"Horizon 2020 Program","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["734548"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["734548"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100007601","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:p>We developed mathematical models to analyze a large dengue virus (DENV) epidemic in Reunion Island in 2018\u20132019. Our models captured major drivers of uncertainty including the complex relationship between climate and DENV transmission, temperature trends, and underreporting. Early assessment correctly concluded that persistence of DENV transmission during the austral winter 2018 was likely and that the second epidemic wave would be larger than the first one. From November 2018, the detection probability was estimated at 10%\u201320% and, for this range of values, our projections were found to be remarkably accurate. Overall, we estimated that 8% and 18% of the population were infected during the first and second wave, respectively. Out of the 3 models considered, the best-fitting one was calibrated to laboratory entomological data, and accounted for temperature but not precipitation. This study showcases the contribution of modeling to strengthen risk assessments and planning of national and local authorities.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jiad468","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,21]],"date-time":"2023-11-21T23:22:17Z","timestamp":1700608937000},"page":"10-18","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":11,"title":["Comparing the Performance of Three Models Incorporating Weather Data to Forecast Dengue Epidemics in Reunion Island, 2018\u20132019"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"229","author":[{"given":"Alessio","family":"Andronico","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Universit\u00e9 Paris Cit\u00e9, UMR2000, CNRS , Paris , France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Luce","family":"Menudier","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Regional Unit Saint-Denis de la R\u00e9union, French Public Health Agency , Saint-Denis, R\u00e9union Island , France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3626-4254","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Henrik","family":"Salje","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge , Cambridge , United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Muriel","family":"Vincent","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Regional Unit Saint-Denis de la R\u00e9union, French Public Health Agency , Saint-Denis, R\u00e9union Island , France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Juliette","family":"Paireau","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Universit\u00e9 Paris Cit\u00e9, UMR2000, CNRS , Paris , France"},{"name":"Infectious Diseases Department, French Public Health Agency , Saint-Maurice , France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Henriette","family":"de Valk","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Vectorborn, Foodborn and Zoonotic Infections Department, French Public Health Agency , Saint-Maurice , France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Pierre","family":"Gallian","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Etablissement Fran\u00e7ais du Sang Provence Alpes C\u00f4te d\u2019Azur et Corse , Marseille , France"},{"name":"Unit\u00e9 des Virus \u00c9mergents, Aix-Marseille University, IRD 190, Inserm 1207 , Marseille , France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Boris","family":"Pastorino","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Unit\u00e9 des Virus \u00c9mergents, Aix-Marseille University, IRD 190, Inserm 1207 , Marseille , France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Oliver","family":"Brady","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , London , United Kingdom"},{"name":"Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , London , United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7895-2720","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Xavier","family":"de Lamballerie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Unit\u00e9 des Virus \u00c9mergents, Aix-Marseille University, IRD 190, Inserm 1207 , Marseille , France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Cl\u00e9ment","family":"Lazarus","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Surveillance and Health Security, Directorate General for Health, Ministry of Health , Paris , France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Marie-Claire","family":"Paty","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Vectorborn, Foodborn and Zoonotic Infections Department, French Public Health Agency , Saint-Maurice , France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Pascal","family":"Vilain","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Regional Unit Saint-Denis de la R\u00e9union, French Public Health Agency , Saint-Denis, R\u00e9union Island , France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Harold","family":"Noel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Vectorborn, Foodborn and Zoonotic Infections Department, French Public Health Agency , Saint-Maurice , France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9186-4549","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Simon","family":"Cauchemez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Universit\u00e9 Paris Cit\u00e9, UMR2000, CNRS , Paris , France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"2024011216432293500_jiad468-B1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"345","DOI":"10.1016\/S0065-308X(05)62010-6","article-title":"Climate change and vector-borne diseases","volume":"62","author":"Rogers","year":"2006","journal-title":"Adv Parasitol"},{"key":"2024011216432293500_jiad468-B2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7460","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1101377108","article-title":"Impact of daily temperature fluctuations on dengue virus transmission by Aedes aegypti","volume":"108","author":"Lambrechts","year":"2011","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci"},{"key":"2024011216432293500_jiad468-B3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0005568","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0005568","article-title":"Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models","volume":"11","author":"Mordecai","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"2024011216432293500_jiad468-B4","article-title":"Estimating drivers of autochthonous transmission of Chikungunya virus in its invasion of the Americas","volume":"7","author":"Perkins","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS Curr"},{"key":"2024011216432293500_jiad468-B5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e91170","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0091170","article-title":"Spatial and temporal heterogeneities of Aedes albopictus density in la Reunion Island: rise and weakness of entomological indices","volume":"9","author":"Boyer","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"2024011216432293500_jiad468-B6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0010547","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010547","article-title":"Overview of dengue outbreaks in the southwestern Indian ocean and analysis of factors involved in the shift toward endemicity in Reunion Island: a systematic review","volume":"16","author":"Hafsia","year":"2022","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"2024011216432293500_jiad468-B7","first-page":"71","article-title":"A serological survey regarding Flaviviridae infections on the island of R\u00e9union (1971\u20131989)","volume":"87","author":"Kles","year":"1994","journal-title":"Bull Soc Pathol Exot"},{"key":"2024011216432293500_jiad468-B8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.1051\/parasite\/2008151003","article-title":"Aedes albopictus, vecteur des virus du chikungunya et de la dengue \u00e0 la R\u00e9union\u202f: biologie et contr\u00f4le","volume":"15","author":"Delatte","year":"2008","journal-title":"Parasite"},{"key":"2024011216432293500_jiad468-B9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"727","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2007.77.727","article-title":"A major epidemic of chikungunya virus infection on Reunion Island, France, 2005\u20132006","volume":"77","author":"Renault","year":"2007","journal-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg"},{"key":"2024011216432293500_jiad468-B10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"57","DOI":"10.1093\/trstmh\/trt110","article-title":"Dengue outbreaks: a constant risk for Reunion Island. Results from a seroprevalence study among blood donors","volume":"108","author":"Larrieu","year":"2014","journal-title":"Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg"},{"key":"2024011216432293500_jiad468-B11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"475","DOI":"10.1016\/j.medmal.2010.11.021","article-title":"Dengue \u00e0 La R\u00e9union et dans les \u00eeles du sud-ouest de l\u2019Oc\u00e9an Indien","volume":"41","author":"D\u2019Ortenzio","year":"2011","journal-title":"Med Mal Infect"},{"key":"2024011216432293500_jiad468-B12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"251","DOI":"10.1111\/mve.12284","article-title":"Vectorial status of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus of La R\u00e9union Island for Zika virus: Ae. albopictus of La R\u00e9union Island","volume":"32","author":"Vazeille","year":"2018","journal-title":"Med Vet Entomol"},{"key":"2024011216432293500_jiad468-B13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1076","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-3156.2012.03040.x","article-title":"Space-time analysis of hospitalised dengue patients in rural Thailand reveals important temporal intervals in the pattern of dengue virus transmission: space-time dengue transmission intervals","volume":"17","author":"Aldstadt","year":"2012","journal-title":"Trop Med Int Health"},{"key":"2024011216432293500_jiad468-B14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e50972","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0050972","article-title":"The incubation periods of dengue viruses","volume":"7","author":"Chan","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"2024011216432293500_jiad468-B15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"719","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-018-0157-4","article-title":"Reconstruction of antibody dynamics and infection histories to evaluate dengue risk","volume":"557","author":"Salje","year":"2018","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"2024011216432293500_jiad468-B16","author":"Agence de Sant\u00e9 Oc\u00e9an Indien"},{"key":"2024011216432293500_jiad468-B17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"13422","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1303117110","article-title":"Increased transmissibility explains the third wave of infection by the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus in England","volume":"110","author":"Dorigatti","year":"2013","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"key":"2024011216432293500_jiad468-B18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1690","DOI":"10.1111\/ele.13335","article-title":"Thermal biology of mosquito-borne disease","volume":"22","author":"Mordecai","year":"2019","journal-title":"Ecol Lett"},{"key":"2024011216432293500_jiad468-B19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104687","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rinp.2021.104687","article-title":"Dynamic mapping of dengue basic reproduction number","volume":"29","author":"Benkimoun","year":"2021","journal-title":"Results Phys"},{"key":"2024011216432293500_jiad468-B20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"162484","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2023.162484","article-title":"Impact of regional climate change on the mosquito vector Aedes albopictus in a tropical island environment: La R\u00e9union","volume":"875","author":"Lamy","year":"2023","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ"}],"container-title":["The Journal of Infectious Diseases"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jid\/advance-article-pdf\/doi\/10.1093\/infdis\/jiad468\/53651517\/jiad468.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"am","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jid\/article-pdf\/229\/1\/10\/55572472\/jiad468.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jid\/article-pdf\/229\/1\/10\/55572472\/jiad468.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,12]],"date-time":"2024-01-12T18:17:37Z","timestamp":1705083457000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jid\/article\/229\/1\/10\/7438952"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,21]]},"references-count":20,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,21]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,12]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/infdis\/jiad468","relation":{},"ISSN":["0022-1899","1537-6613"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0022-1899","type":"print"},{"value":"1537-6613","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published-other":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,15]]},"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,21]]}}}