{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,11,10]],"date-time":"2026-11-10T15:50:05Z","timestamp":1794325805368,"version":"4.9.0"},"reference-count":44,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,28]],"date-time":"2024-08-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1724803200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000030","name":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000030","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"SHEPheRD) program","award":["200-2016-91781"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["200-2016-91781"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001691","name":"Japan Society for the Promotion of Science","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["20J00793"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["20J00793"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001691","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001691","name":"Japan Society for the Promotion of Science","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["21KK0107"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["21KK0107"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001691","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001700","name":"Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001700","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Joint Usage\/Research Center Leading Academia in Marine and Environment Pollution Research"},{"name":"European Union's Horizon 2023 research and innovation program"},{"name":"ESCAPE","award":["101095619"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["101095619"]}]},{"name":"Fusion of Science and Technology and Japan Science and Technology Agency"},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100009023","name":"Precursory Research for Embryonic Science and Technology","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["JPMJPR22R3"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["JPMJPR22R3"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100009023","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100010269","name":"Wellcome Trust","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["210758"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["210758"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100010269","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"JSPS Overseas Research Fellowships","award":["22K17329"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["22K17329"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001352","name":"National University of Singapore","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["A-0009841"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["A-0009841"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001352","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100009619","name":"Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["JP223fa627004"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["JP223fa627004"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100009619","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>During the 2022 global mpox outbreak, the cumulative number of countries reporting their first imported case quickly rose in the early phase, but the importation rate subsequently slowed down, leaving many countries reporting no cases by the 2022 year-end.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>We developed a mathematical model of international dissemination of mpox infections incorporating sexual networks and global mobility data. We used this model to characterize the mpox importation patterns observed in 2022 and to discuss the potential of further international spread.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Our proposed model better explained the observed importation patterns than models not assuming heterogeneity in sexual contacts. Estimated importation hazards decreased in most countries, surpassing the global case count decline, suggesting a reduced per-case risk of importation. We assessed each country's potential to export mpox cases until the end of an epidemic, identifying countries capable of contributing to the future international spread.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>The accumulation of immunity among high-risk individuals over highly heterogeneous sexual networks may have contributed to the slowdown in the rate of mpox importations. Nevertheless, the existence of countries with the potential to contribute to the global spread of mpox highlights the importance of equitable resource access to prevent the global resurgence of mpox.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jiae433","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,28]],"date-time":"2024-08-28T14:20:23Z","timestamp":1724854823000},"page":"e234-e243","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["Dynamic Landscape of Mpox Importation Risks Driven by Heavy-Tailed Sexual Contact Networks Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in 2022"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"231","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0787-4515","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sung-mok","family":"Jung","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8235-757X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Fuminari","family":"Miura","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment , Bilthoven ,","place":["The Netherlands"]},{"name":"Center for Marine Environmental Studies, Ehime University , Matsuyama, Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7219-5981","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hiroaki","family":"Murayama","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Medicine, International University of Health and Welfare , Narita ,","place":["Japan"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2842-3406","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sebastian","family":"Funk","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom"},{"name":"Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , London ,","place":["United Kingdom"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1725-5627","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jacco","family":"Wallinga","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment , Bilthoven ,","place":["The Netherlands"]},{"name":"Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center , Leiden ,","place":["The Netherlands"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9741-8109","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Justin","family":"Lessler","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA"},{"name":"Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA"},{"name":"Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health , Baltimore, Maryland, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6377-7296","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Akira","family":"Endo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom"},{"name":"Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , London ,","place":["United Kingdom"]},{"name":"Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore"},{"name":"School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University , Nagasaki ,","place":["Japan"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,28]]},"reference":[{"key":"2025020417142297100_jiae433-B1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2200620","DOI":"10.2807\/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.36.2200620","article-title":"A large multi-country outbreak of monkeypox across 41 countries in the WHO European region, 7 March to 23 August 2022","volume":"27:","author":"Vaughan","year":"2022","journal-title":"Euro Surveill"},{"key":"2025020417142297100_jiae433-B2","first-page":"73","article-title":"Human monkeypox: disease pattern, incidence and attack rates in a rural area of northern Zaire","volume":"40","author":"Jezek","year":"1988","journal-title":"Trop Geogr Med"},{"key":"2025020417142297100_jiae433-B3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0010141","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010141","article-title":"The changing epidemiology of human monkeypox\u2014a potential threat? 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