{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,16]],"date-time":"2025-10-16T01:01:10Z","timestamp":1760576470752,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,7]],"date-time":"2025-08-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1754524800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,15]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Vietnam, a high-burden tuberculosis (TB) country, experienced marked declines in TB notifications during the COVID-19 pandemic. We assessed the impact of pandemic-related disruptions on TB case detection and transmission using a dynamic transmission model calibrated to local demographic and epidemiological observations.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>We developed an age-structured compartmental TB transmission model to estimate COVID-19's impact on TB in Vietnam. Four model assumptions reflecting reductions in detection and\/or transmission were calibrated to notification data, with the best-fitting assumption used for future projections and to evaluate the effects of enhanced case detection scenarios.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>COVID-19 significantly disrupted TB services in Vietnam, resulting in an estimated 2000 additional TB episodes (95% credible interval [CrI]: 200\u20135100) and 1100 TB-related deaths (95% CrI: 100\u20132700) in 2021. By 2035, the cumulative impact of these disruptions could reach 22 000 additional TB episodes (95% CrI: 2200\u201363 000) and 5900 deaths (95% CrI: 600\u201316 600) by 2035. We predicted two hypothetical scenarios of enhancing TB case detection. Under the ambitious scenario, enhancing TB case detection could mitigate these potential impacts by preventing 17.8% of new TB episodes (95% CrI: 13.1%\u201321.9%) and 34.2% (95% CrI: 31.5%\u201337.0%) of TB-related deaths by 2035, compared with no enhancement.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>COVID-19-related disruptions have hindered TB detection in Vietnam, likely causing long-term increases in new TB episodes and deaths. However, the uncertainty around these effects is considerable. Sustained investment in diagnostics, system resilience, and patient-centric policies has the potential to achieve benefits that are substantially larger than these pandemic-related setbacks.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jiaf406","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,12]],"date-time":"2025-08-12T18:43:53Z","timestamp":1755024233000},"page":"e682-e690","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Impact of Case Detection and COVID-19-Related Disruptions on Tuberculosis in Vietnam: A Modeling Analysis"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"232","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9997-593X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Viet Long","family":"Bui","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University , Melbourne, Victoria ,","place":["Australia"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8520-2362","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Romain","family":"Ragonnet","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University , Melbourne, Victoria ,","place":["Australia"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Angus E","family":"Hughes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University , Melbourne, Victoria ,","place":["Australia"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"David S","family":"Shipman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University , Melbourne, Victoria ,","place":["Australia"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9570-9172","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Emma S","family":"McBryde","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Clinical Research, The University of Queensland , Brisbane, Queensland ,","place":["Australia"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1543-4907","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Binh Hoa","family":"Nguyen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Lung Hospital , Ha Noi ,","place":["Vietnam"]},{"name":"National Tuberculosis Program , Ha Noi ,","place":["Vietnam"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Hoang Nam","family":"Do","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Lung Hospital , Ha Noi ,","place":["Vietnam"]},{"name":"National Tuberculosis Program , Ha Noi 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