{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,17]],"date-time":"2026-09-17T12:25:22Z","timestamp":1789647922603,"version":"4.0.0"},"reference-count":31,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"Supplement_5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,3,16]],"date-time":"2020-03-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1584316800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000865","name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["OPP1184344"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OPP1184344"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000865","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000265","name":"Medical Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000265","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100002992","name":"Department for International Development","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100002992","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000780","name":"European Commission","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["MR\/R015600\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["MR\/R015600\/1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000780","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Dutch Research Council","award":["016.Veni.178.023"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["016.Veni.178.023"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,6,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>The World Health Organization recommends monitoring Onchocerca volvulus Ov16 serology in children aged &amp;lt;10 years for stopping mass ivermectin administration. Transmission models can help to identify the most informative age groups for serological monitoring and investigate the discriminatory power of serology-based elimination thresholds. Model predictions depend on assumed age-exposure patterns and transmission efficiency at low infection levels.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>The individual-based transmission model, EPIONCHO-IBM, was used to assess (1) the most informative age groups for serological monitoring using receiver operating characteristic curves for different elimination thresholds under various age-dependent exposure assumptions, including those of ONCHOSIM (another widely used model), and (2) the influence of within-human density-dependent parasite establishment (included in EPIONCHO-IBM but not ONCHOSIM) on positive predictive values for different serological thresholds.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>When assuming EPIONCHO-IBM exposure patterns, children aged &amp;lt;10 years are the most informative for seromonitoring; when assuming ONCHOSIM exposure patterns, 5\u201314 year olds are the most informative (as published elsewhere). Omitting density-dependent parasite establishment results in more lenient seroprevalence thresholds, even for higher baseline infection prevalence and shorter treatment durations.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Selecting appropriate seromonitoring age groups depends critically on age-dependent exposure patterns. The role of density dependence on elimination thresholds largely explains differing EPIONCHO-IBM and ONCHOSIM elimination predictions.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jiz674","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,12,20]],"date-time":"2019-12-20T20:10:12Z","timestamp":1576872612000},"page":"S510-S518","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":27,"title":["Structural Uncertainty in Onchocerciasis Transmission Models Influences the Estimation of Elimination Thresholds and Selection of Age Groups for Seromonitoring"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"221","author":[{"given":"Jonathan I D","family":"Hamley","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK"},{"name":"Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Martin","family":"Walker","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK"},{"name":"London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, Royal Veterinary College, University of London, Hatfield, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Luc E","family":"Coffeng","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Philip","family":"Milton","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK"},{"name":"Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sake J","family":"de Vlas","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wilma A","family":"Stolk","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5031-3361","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Maria-Gloria","family":"Bas\u00e1\u00f1ez","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK"},{"name":"Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,3,16]]},"reference":[{"key":"2020061115550931400_CIT0001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"21","DOI":"10.1186\/s40249-018-0406-7","article-title":"From river blindness control to elimination: bridge over troubled water","volume":"7","author":"Colebunders","year":"2018","journal-title":"Infect Dis Poverty"},{"key":"2020061115550931400_CIT0002","volume-title":"Onchocerciasis. 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