{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,11]],"date-time":"2026-06-11T15:09:50Z","timestamp":1781190590451,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,24]],"date-time":"2025-01-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1737676800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Department of Medicine, University of Ottawa"},{"name":"Northbridge Financial Corporation Chair in Inflammatory Bowel Disease"},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100025092","name":"Ontario Ministry of Health","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100025092","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100025090","name":"Ministry of Long-Term Care","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100025090","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Individuals with ulcerative colitis (UC) are frequently re-hospitalized for persistent or recurrent severe disease flares. Accurate prediction of the risk of early re-hospitalization at the time of discharge could promote targeted outpatient interventions to reduce this risk.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>We conducted a retrospective study in adults with UC admitted to The Ottawa Hospital between 2009 and 2016 for an acute UC-related indication. We ascertained candidate demographic, clinical, and health services predictors through medical records and administrative health databases. We derived and bootstrap validated a multivariable logistic regression model of 90-day UC-related re-hospitalization risk. We chose a probability cut point that maximized Youden\u2019s index to differentiate high-risk from low-risk individuals and assessed model performance.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Among 248 UC-related hospitalizations, there were 27 (10.9%) re-hospitalizations within 90 days of discharge. Our multivariable model identified gastroenterologist consultation within the prior year (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.11, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.04-0.39), male sex (aOR 3.27, 95% CI, 1.33-8.05), length of stay (OR 0.94, 95% CI, 0.88-1.01), and narcotic prescription at discharge (OR 1.96, 95% CI, 0.73-5.27) as significant predictors of 90-day re-hospitalization. The optimism-corrected c-statistic value was 0.78, and the goodness-of-fit test P-value was .09. The chosen probability cut point produced a sensitivity of 77.8%, specificity of 80.9%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 33.0%, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 96.7% in the derivation cohort.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>A limited set of variables accessible at the point of hospital discharge can reasonably discriminate re-hospitalization risk among individuals with UC. Future studies are required to validate our findings.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/jcag\/gwae054","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,24]],"date-time":"2025-01-24T12:21:41Z","timestamp":1737721301000},"page":"76-82","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["A multivariable prediction model to stratify risk of 90-day rehospitalization among adults with ulcerative colitis"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"8","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7309-1316","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Claudia","family":"Dziegielewski","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medicine, University of Ottawa , Ottawa, ON K1H 8M5 ,","place":["Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4367-2216","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sarang","family":"Gupta","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medicine, University of Toronto , Toronto, ON M5S 3H2 ,","place":["Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Julia","family":"Lombardi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medicine, McMaster University , Hamilton, ON L8N 3Z5 ,","place":["Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Erin","family":"Kelly","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, University of Ottawa , Ottawa, ON K1H 8M5 ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, University of Ottawa , Ottawa, ON K1H 8L6 ,","place":["Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jeffrey D","family":"McCurdy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, University of Ottawa , Ottawa, ON K1H 8M5 ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, University of Ottawa , Ottawa, ON K1H 8L6 ,","place":["Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9085-6085","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Richmond","family":"Sy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, University of Ottawa , Ottawa, ON K1H 8M5 ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, University of Ottawa , Ottawa, ON K1H 8L6 ,","place":["Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nav","family":"Saloojee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, University of Ottawa , Ottawa, ON K1H 8M5 ,","place":["Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tim","family":"Ramsay","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, University of Ottawa , Ottawa, ON K1H 8L6 ,","place":["Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael","family":"Pugliese","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, University of Ottawa , Ottawa, ON K1H 8L6 ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"ICES uOttawa , Ottawa, ON K1Y 4E9 ,","place":["Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jahanara","family":"Begum","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, University of Ottawa , Ottawa, ON K1H 8L6 ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"ICES uOttawa , Ottawa, ON K1Y 4E9 ,","place":["Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Eric I","family":"Benchimol","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition, The Hospital for Sick Children , Toronto, ON M5G 1X8 ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"ICES , Toronto, ON M4N 3M5 ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"Department of Paediatrics and Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto , Toronto, ON M5T 3M6 ,","place":["Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sanjay K","family":"Murthy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, University of Ottawa , Ottawa, ON K1H 8M5 ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, University of Ottawa , Ottawa, ON K1H 8L6 ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"ICES uOttawa , Ottawa, ON K1Y 4E9 ,","place":["Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,24]]},"reference":[{"issue":"1","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0001","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"46","DOI":"10.1053\/j.gastro.2011.10.001","article-title":"Increasing incidence and prevalence of the inflammatory bowel diseases with time, based on systematic review","volume":"142","author":"Molodecky","year":"2012","journal-title":"Gastroenterology."},{"issue":"5","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0002","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"695","DOI":"10.1097\/MIB.0000000000001068","article-title":"Quality of care and outcomes among hospitalized inflammatory bowel disease patients: a multicenter retrospective study","volume":"23","author":"Nguyen","year":"2017","journal-title":"Inflamm Bowel Dis."},{"issue":"1","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0003","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"77","DOI":"10.1007\/s40258-018-0432-4","article-title":"Trends and factors associated with hospitalization costs for inflammatory bowel disease in the United States","volume":"17","author":"Xu","year":"2019","journal-title":"Appl Health Econ Health Policy."},{"issue":"Suppl 2","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0004","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"S1","DOI":"10.1093\/jcag\/gwad003","article-title":"The 2023 impact of inflammatory bowel disease in Canada: executive summary","volume":"6","author":"Windsor","year":"2023","journal-title":"J Can Assoc Gastroenterol."},{"issue":"1","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0005","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"128","DOI":"10.14309\/ajg.0000000000000503","article-title":"Longitudinal trends in the direct costs and health care utilization ascribable to inflammatory bowel disease in the biologic era: results from a Canadian population-based analysis","volume":"115","author":"Targownik","year":"2020","journal-title":"Am J Gastroenterol."},{"issue":"Suppl 1","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0006","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"S17","DOI":"10.1093\/jcag\/gwy055","article-title":"The impact of inflammatory bowel disease in Canada 2018: direct costs and health services utilization","volume":"2","author":"Kuenzig","year":"2019","journal-title":"J Can Assoc Gastroenterol."},{"issue":"22","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0007","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5413","DOI":"10.3390\/jcm10225413","article-title":"Long-term outcomes and predictive factors of hospitalized patients with severe ulcerative colitis treated with intravenous corticosteroids","volume":"10","author":"De Cristofaro","year":"2021","journal-title":"J Clin Med."},{"issue":"8","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0008","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e0182900","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0182900","article-title":"Factors associated with readmission to the hospital within 30 days in patients with inflammatory bowel disease","volume":"12","author":"Micic","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLoS One."},{"issue":"9","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0009","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1103","DOI":"10.3109\/00365521.2015.1020862","article-title":"Early readmission in patients hospitalized for ulcerative colitis: incidence and risk factors","volume":"50","author":"Tinsley","year":"2015","journal-title":"Scand J Gastroenterol."},{"issue":"3","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0010","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"343","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cgh.2017.06.016","article-title":"Natural history of adult ulcerative colitis in population-based cohorts: a systematic review","volume":"16","author":"Fumery","year":"2018","journal-title":"Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol."},{"issue":"6","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0011","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"875","DOI":"10.1097\/MIB.0000000000001121","article-title":"Modifiable risk factors for hospital readmission among patients with inflammatory bowel disease in a nationwide database","volume":"23","author":"Barnes","year":"2017","journal-title":"Inflamm Bowel Dis."},{"key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0012","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1756284820923836","DOI":"10.1177\/1756284820923836","article-title":"Rehospitalization rates, costs, and risk factors for inflammatory bowel disease: a 16-year nationwide study","volume":"13","author":"Santiago","year":"2020","journal-title":"Therap Adv Gastroenterol."},{"issue":"10","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0013","first-page":"474","article-title":"Inflammatory bowel disease readmissions are associated with utilization and comorbidity","volume":"25","author":"Cohen-Mekelburg","year":"2019","journal-title":"Am J Manag Care."},{"issue":"8","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0014","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1074","DOI":"10.1001\/archinte.160.8.1074","article-title":"Hospital readmissions as a measure of quality of health care: advantages and limitations","volume":"160","author":"Benbassat","year":"2000","journal-title":"Arch Intern Med."},{"key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0015","author":"Discharge Abstract Database metadata (DAD)","year":"2022"},{"issue":"11","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0016","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1891","DOI":"10.1097\/MIB.0000000000001213","article-title":"Predictors of early readmission in hospitalized patients with inflammatory bowel disease","volume":"23","author":"Christian","year":"2017","journal-title":"Inflamm Bowel Dis."},{"issue":"5","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0017","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"373","DOI":"10.1016\/0021-9681(87)90171-8","article-title":"A new method of classifying prognostic comorbidity in longitudinal studies: development and validation","volume":"40","author":"Charlson","year":"1987","journal-title":"J Chronic Dis."},{"issue":"29","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0018","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1925","DOI":"10.1093\/eurheartj\/ehu207","article-title":"Towards better clinical prediction models: seven steps for development and an ABCD for validation","volume":"35","author":"Steyerberg","year":"2014","journal-title":"Eur Heart J."},{"issue":"7","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0019","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1024","DOI":"10.1038\/ajg.2012.343","article-title":"Hospital readmissions in patients with inflammatory bowel disease","volume":"108","author":"Hazratjee","year":"2013","journal-title":"Am J Gastroenterol."},{"issue":"1","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0020","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5","DOI":"10.1186\/s40779-018-0153-x","article-title":"Risk factors for 90-day readmission in veterans with inflammatory bowel disease-Does post-discharge follow-up matter","volume":"5","author":"Malhotra","year":"2018","journal-title":"Mil Med Res."},{"issue":"4","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0021","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"467","DOI":"10.23736\/S0026-4806.21.07442-5","article-title":"Nonattendance to gastroenterologist follow-up after discharge is associated with a thirty-days re-admission in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: a multicenter study","volume":"112","author":"Sbeit","year":"2021","journal-title":"Minerva Med."},{"issue":"1","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0022","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"90","DOI":"10.1053\/j.gastro.2011.03.050","article-title":"Outcomes of patients with Crohn\u2019s disease improved from 1988 to 2008 and were associated with increased specialist care","volume":"141","author":"Nguyen","year":"2011","journal-title":"Gastroenterology."},{"issue":"10","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0023","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1410","DOI":"10.1136\/gutjnl-2011-301978","article-title":"Impact of gastroenterologist care on health outcomes of hospitalised ulcerative colitis patients","volume":"61","author":"Murthy","year":"2012","journal-title":"Gut."},{"issue":"12","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0024","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1904","DOI":"10.1093\/ibd\/izac021","article-title":"The relationship between opioid use and healthcare utilization in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis","volume":"28","author":"Sheehan","year":"2022","journal-title":"Inflamm Bowel Dis."},{"issue":"5","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0025","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"869","DOI":"10.1002\/ibd.21806","article-title":"Narcotic use for inflammatory bowel disease and risk factors during hospitalization","volume":"18","author":"Long","year":"2012","journal-title":"Inflamm Bowel Dis."},{"issue":"10","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0026","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1832","DOI":"10.1097\/MIB.0000000000001242","article-title":"Inflammatory bowel disease: predictors and causes of early and late hospital readmissions","volume":"23","author":"Mudireddy","year":"2017","journal-title":"Inflamm Bowel Dis."},{"issue":"9","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0027","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1858","DOI":"10.1097\/MIB.0b013e31828c84c5","article-title":"Cumulative incidence and risk factors for hospitalization and surgery in a population-based cohort of ulcerative colitis","volume":"19","author":"Samuel","year":"2013","journal-title":"Inflamm Bowel Dis."},{"issue":"6","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0028","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"592","DOI":"10.1016\/j.crohns.2011.06.002","article-title":"Prediction of disease complication occurrence in Crohn\u2019s disease using phenotype and genotype parameters at diagnosis","volume":"5","author":"Mazor","year":"2011","journal-title":"J Crohns Colitis."},{"issue":"12","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0029","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1157","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2036.2008.03698.x","article-title":"Review article: medication non-adherence in ulcerative colitis\u2013strategies to improve adherence with mesalazine and other maintenance therapies","volume":"27","author":"Hawthorne","year":"2008","journal-title":"Aliment Pharmacol Ther."},{"issue":"4","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0030","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"674","DOI":"10.1038\/ajg.2011.60","article-title":"Loss of response and need for adalimumab dose intensification in Crohn\u2019s disease: a systematic review","volume":"106","author":"Billioud","year":"2011","journal-title":"Am J Gastroenterol."},{"issue":"1","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0031","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"67","DOI":"10.1159\/000452459","article-title":"Short- and long-term outcomes of infliximab treatment for steroid-refractory ulcerative colitis and related prognostic factors: a single-center retrospective study","volume":"95","author":"Nasuno","year":"2017","journal-title":"Digestion."},{"issue":"11","key":"2025042603014651000_CIT0032","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2583","DOI":"10.1097\/MIB.0000000000000537","article-title":"Risk factors for rehospitalization within 90 days in patients with inflammatory bowel disease","volume":"21","author":"Allegretti","year":"2015","journal-title":"Inflamm Bowel Dis."}],"container-title":["Journal of the Canadian Association of Gastroenterology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jcag\/article-pdf\/8\/2\/76\/61619354\/gwae054.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jcag\/article-pdf\/8\/2\/76\/61619354\/gwae054.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,26]],"date-time":"2025-04-26T07:01:56Z","timestamp":1745650916000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jcag\/article\/8\/2\/76\/7978679"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,24]]},"references-count":32,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,11]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/jcag\/gwae054","relation":{},"ISSN":["2515-2084","2515-2092"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2515-2084","type":"print"},{"value":"2515-2092","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published-other":{"date-parts":[[2025,4]]},"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,24]]}}}