{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,13]],"date-time":"2026-10-13T07:45:41Z","timestamp":1791877541487,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":53,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,27]],"date-time":"2026-06-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1782518400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/pages\/standard-publication-reuse-rights"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100012166","name":"National Key R&D Program of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2021YFC2600400"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2021YFC2600400"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100012166","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["31972278"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["31972278"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"China Agriculture Research System","award":["CARS-28"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CARS-28"]}],"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/03p5eky76","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Human activities and climate change are driving the northward expansion of invasive fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae), posing increasing threats to temperate fruit production. Here, we combine the MaxEnt model with direct field observations to assess the potential range expansion of three tephritid species\u2014Bactrocera dorsalis, Zeugodacus tau, and Z. cucurbitae\u2014under climate change scenarios through 2060, and to evaluate the associated risks to temperate fruit production. Model projections indicate that the suitable habitat area for all three species will expand significantly in the future and shift to higher latitudes. By 2026, the net increase in suitable area for B. dorsalis, Z. tau, and Z. cucurbitae is predicted to be 5.14%, 3.50%, and 21.32%. Field monitoring in Chinese temperate orchards confirmed substantial fruit fly damage, with B. dorsalis dominating in most pear orchards and Z. tau densities increasing later in the season. The highly polyphagous B. dorsalis poses the greatest risk, especially to peach and plum orchards, whereas late\u2011maturing fruit varieties appear more vulnerable to Z. tau. These findings offer valuable insights for developing proactive management strategies in temperate orchards within the projected expansion ranges of these species.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1093\/jee\/toag181","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,11]],"date-time":"2026-06-11T11:44:44Z","timestamp":1781178284000},"page":"3439-3454","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Predicting range expansion of three tropical fruit flies and risks to pome and stone fruit production in temperate regions"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"119","author":[{"given":"Jinhong","family":"Chen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Agricultural and Forestry Biosecurity, MARA Key Lab of Pest Monitoring and Green Management, Department of Entomology, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University , Beijing,","place":["China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jiang","family":"Xie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Agriculture and Rural Affairs Bureau of Weining Yi, Hui and Miao Autonomous County , Bijie,","place":["China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4277-3119","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"J P","family":"Michaud","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Entomology, Kansas State University, Agricultural Research Center-Hays , Hays, KS,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2385-8224","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Xuguo","family":"Zhou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Entomology, School of Integrative Biology, College of Liberal Art & Science, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign , Urbana, IL,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xiaoxia","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Agricultural and Forestry Biosecurity, MARA Key Lab of Pest Monitoring and Green Management, Department of Entomology, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University , Beijing,","place":["China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5714-664X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Zhen","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Agricultural and Forestry Biosecurity, MARA Key Lab of Pest Monitoring and Green Management, Department of Entomology, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University , Beijing,","place":["China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"2026101302532829100_toag181-B1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e10784","DOI":"10.1002\/ece3.10784","article-title":"Evaluating the predictive performance of presence\u2013absence models: why can the same model appear excellent or poor?","volume":"13","author":"Abrego","year":"2023","journal-title":"Ecol. 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