{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,28]],"date-time":"2026-09-28T15:53:16Z","timestamp":1790610796816,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":37,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,20]],"date-time":"2024-11-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1732060800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/pages\/standard-publication-reuse-rights"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,5]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Survival prediction for patients with leptomeningeal metastasis (LM) is crucial for making proper management plans and counseling patients. Prognostic models in this patient domain have been limited, and existing models often include predictors that are not available in resource-limited settings. Our aim was to develop a practical, individualized survival prediction model for patients diagnosed with LM.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>We collected a retrospective cohort of patients diagnosed with LM from cerebrospinal fluid at Chiang Mai University Hospital from January 2015 to July 2021. Nine candidate predictors included male gender, age\u00a0&amp;gt;\u00a060\u00a0years, presence of extracranial involvement, types of primary cancer, the time between primary cancer and LM diagnosis, presence of cerebral symptoms, cranial symptoms, spinal symptoms, and abnormal CSF profiles. Flexible parametric survival analysis was used to develop the survival prognostic model for predicting survival at 3, 6, and 12\u00a0months after diagnosis. The model was evaluated for discrimination and calibration.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>161 patients with 133 events were included. The derived individual survival prediction model for patients with LM, or the LMsurv model, consists of three final predictors: types of primary cancer, presence of cerebral symptoms, and presence of spinal symptoms. The model showed acceptable discrimination (Harrell\u2019s C-statistics: 0.72; 95% confidence interval 0.68\u20130.76) and was well calibrated at 3, 6, and 12\u00a0months.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>The LMsurv model, incorporating three practical predictors, demonstrated acceptable discrimination and calibration for predicting survival in LM patients. This model could serve as an assisting tool during clinical decision-making. External validation is suggested to confirm the generalizability of the model.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/jjco\/hyae162","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,20]],"date-time":"2024-11-20T08:49:17Z","timestamp":1732092557000},"page":"237-245","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Individual survival prediction model for patients with leptomeningeal metastasis"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"55","author":[{"given":"Noraworn","family":"Jirattikanwong","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Clinical Statistics, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University , 110 Intawaroros, Si Phum, Muang, Chiang Mai 50200 ,","place":["Thailand"]},{"name":"Department of Biomedical Informatics and Clinical Epidemiology (BioCE) , Faculty of Medicine, , 110 Intawaroros, Si Phum, Muang, Chiang Mai 50200 ,","place":["Thailand"]},{"name":"Chiang Mai University , Faculty of Medicine, , 110 Intawaroros, Si Phum, Muang, Chiang Mai 50200 ,","place":["Thailand"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Chaiyut","family":"Charoentum","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Internal Medicine , Faculty of Medicine, , 110 Intawaroros, Si Phum, Muang, Chiang Mai 50200 ,","place":["Thailand"]},{"name":"Chiang Mai University , Faculty of Medicine, , 110 Intawaroros, Si Phum, Muang, Chiang Mai 50200 ,","place":["Thailand"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Niphitphon","family":"Phenphinan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Orthopedics , Faculty of Medicine, , 110 Intawaroros, Si Phum, Muang, Chiang Mai 50200 ,","place":["Thailand"]},{"name":"Chiang Mai University , Faculty of Medicine, , 110 Intawaroros, Si Phum, Muang, Chiang Mai 50200 ,","place":["Thailand"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Phurich","family":"Pooriwarangkakul","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Psychiatry , Faculty of Medicine, , 110 Intawaroros, Si Phum, Muang, Chiang Mai 50200 ,","place":["Thailand"]},{"name":"Chiang Mai University , Faculty of Medicine, , 110 Intawaroros, Si Phum, Muang, Chiang Mai 50200 ,","place":["Thailand"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Danusorn","family":"Ruttanaphol","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Otolaryngology , Faculty of Medicine, , 110 Intawaroros, Si Phum, Muang, Chiang Mai 50200 ,","place":["Thailand"]},{"name":"Chiang Mai University , Faculty of Medicine, , 110 Intawaroros, Si Phum, Muang, Chiang Mai 50200 ,","place":["Thailand"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8543-6254","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Phichayut","family":"Phinyo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Clinical Statistics, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University , 110 Intawaroros, Si Phum, Muang, Chiang Mai 50200 ,","place":["Thailand"]},{"name":"Department of Biomedical Informatics and Clinical Epidemiology (BioCE) , Faculty of Medicine, , 110 Intawaroros, Si Phum, Muang, Chiang Mai 50200 ,","place":["Thailand"]},{"name":"Chiang Mai University , Faculty of Medicine, , 110 Intawaroros, Si Phum, Muang, Chiang Mai 50200 ,","place":["Thailand"]},{"name":"Center of Multidisciplinary Technology for Advanced Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University , 110 Intawaroros, Si Phum, Muang, Chiang Mai 50200 ,","place":["Thailand"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,20]]},"reference":[{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"225","DOI":"10.1007\/BF02341153","article-title":"Leptomeningeal metastases: comparison of clinical features and laboratory data of solid tumors, lymphomas and leukemias","volume":"9","author":"Kaplan","year":"1990","journal-title":"J Neurooncol"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"773","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.annonc.a010755","article-title":"Carcinomatous meningitis in solid tumours","volume":"7","author":"Jayson","year":"1996","journal-title":"Ann Oncol"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"103","DOI":"10.1053\/ctrv.1999.0119","article-title":"Leptomeningeal carcinomatosis","volume":"25","author":"Grossman","year":"1999","journal-title":"Cancer Treat Rev"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"iv285","DOI":"10.1093\/annonc\/mdh941","article-title":"The diagnostic and therapeutic management of leptomeningeal carcinomatosis","volume":"15","author":"Pavlidis","year":"2004","journal-title":"Ann Oncol"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"249","DOI":"10.1007\/s11910-008-0038-6","article-title":"Neoplastic meningitis","volume":"8","author":"Chamberlain","year":"2008","journal-title":"Curr Neurol Neurosci Rep"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1449","DOI":"10.1212\/WNL.0b013e3181dc1a69","article-title":"Leptomeningeal metastases in the MRI era","volume":"74","author":"Clarke","year":"2010","journal-title":"Neurology"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"973","DOI":"10.1590\/S0004-282X2011000700024","article-title":"Meningeal carcinomatosis in solid tumors","volume":"69","author":"Martins","year":"2011","journal-title":"Arq Neuropsiquiatr"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"233","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1524-4741.2012.01228.x","article-title":"Clinical features and prognostic factors in patients with carcinomatous meningitis secondary to breast cancer","volume":"18","author":"Lara-Medina","year":"2012","journal-title":"Breast J"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"iv84","DOI":"10.1093\/annonc\/mdx221","article-title":"EANO-ESMO clinical practice guidelines for diagnosis, treatment and follow-up of patients with leptomeningeal metastasis from solid tumours","volume":"28","author":"Le Rhun","year":"2017","journal-title":"Ann Oncol"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"101624","DOI":"10.1016\/j.esmoop.2023.101624","article-title":"Leptomeningeal metastasis from solid tumours: EANO\u2013ESMO clinical practice guideline for diagnosis, treatment and follow-up","volume":"8","author":"Le Rhun","year":"2023","journal-title":"ESMO Open"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"599","DOI":"10.1097\/JTO.0b013e318287c943","article-title":"Analysis of treatment outcomes of intraventricular chemotherapy in 105 patients for leptomeningeal Carcinomatosis from non\u2013small-cell lung cancer","volume":"8","author":"Gwak","year":"2013","journal-title":"J Thorac Oncol"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"54","DOI":"10.1016\/j.breast.2017.07.015","article-title":"Treatment and prognosis of leptomeningeal disease secondary to metastatic breast cancer: a single-centre experience","volume":"36","author":"Kingston","year":"2017","journal-title":"The Breast"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"191","DOI":"10.1007\/s11060-018-2790-z","article-title":"Determinants of prolonged survival for breast cancer patient groups with leptomeningeal metastasis (LM)","volume":"138","author":"Niwi\u0144ska","year":"2018","journal-title":"J Neurooncol"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"185","DOI":"10.1097\/JTO.0b013e3182773f21","article-title":"Leptomeningeal carcinomatosis in non-small-cell lung cancer patients: impact on survival and correlated prognostic factors","volume":"8","author":"Lee","year":"2013","journal-title":"J Thorac Oncol"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1289","DOI":"10.1634\/theoncologist.2018-0200","article-title":"Clinicopathological and treatment-associated prognostic factors in patients with breast cancer leptomeningeal metastases in relation to tumor biology","volume":"23","author":"Griguolo","year":"2018","journal-title":"Oncologist"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"499","DOI":"10.1007\/s11060-019-03121-2","article-title":"Predictors of survival in metastatic melanoma patients with leptomeningeal disease (LMD)","volume":"142","author":"Ferguson","year":"2019","journal-title":"J Neurooncol"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1758","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtho.2020.06.018","article-title":"Osimertinib improves overall survival in patients with EGFR-mutated NSCLC with leptomeningeal metastases regardless of T790M mutational status","volume":"15","author":"Lee","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Thorac Oncol"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2769","DOI":"10.1002\/cam4.2156","article-title":"The clinical characteristic and prognostic factors of leptomeningeal metastasis in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer-a retrospective study from one single cancer institute","volume":"8","author":"Yan","year":"2019","journal-title":"Cancer Med"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"134","DOI":"10.1016\/j.lungcan.2019.03.015","article-title":"A molecular graded prognostic assessment (molGPA) model specific for estimating survival in lung cancer patients with leptomeningeal metastases","volume":"131","author":"Yin","year":"2019","journal-title":"Lung Cancer"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1117","DOI":"10.1111\/tbj.13433","article-title":"Breast cancer patients with brain metastases or leptomeningeal disease: 10-year results of a national cohort with validation of prognostic indexes","volume":"25","author":"Znidaric","year":"2019","journal-title":"Breast J"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"19","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jns.2019.05.032","article-title":"Seizure prevalence, contributing factors, and prognostic factors in patients with leptomeningeal disease","volume":"403","author":"Zima","year":"2019","journal-title":"J Neurol Sci"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1729","DOI":"10.1007\/s00432-010-0831-x","article-title":"Prognostic factors and treatment options in patients with leptomeningeal metastases of different primary tumors: a retrospective analysis","volume":"136","author":"Oechsle","year":"2010","journal-title":"J Cancer Res Clin Oncol"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"22372","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-022-26131-z","article-title":"Brain parenchymal and leptomeningeal metastasis in non-small cell lung cancer","volume":"12","author":"Li","year":"2022","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"553","DOI":"10.1007\/s11060-019-03190-3","article-title":"Association of MRI findings with clinical characteristics and prognosis in patients with leptomeningeal carcinomatosis from non-small cell lung cancer","volume":"143","author":"Ko","year":"2019","journal-title":"J Neurooncol"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"167","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jns.2004.05.008","article-title":"Leptomeningeal metastasis: survival and prognostic factors in 155 patients","volume":"223","author":"Herrlinger","year":"2004","journal-title":"J Neurol Sci"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"130","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jocn.2015.11.012","article-title":"Management of leptomeningeal metastases: prognostic factors and associated outcomes","volume":"27","author":"Brower","year":"2016","journal-title":"J Clin Neurosci"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1100","DOI":"10.1093\/neuonc\/noaa298","article-title":"Prognostic validation and clinical implications of the EANO ESMO classification of leptomeningeal metastasis from solid tumors","volume":"23","author":"Le Rhun","year":"2021","journal-title":"Neuro Oncol"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"81","DOI":"10.1007\/s11060-022-03949-1","article-title":"Quantitative assessment of circulating tumor cells in cerebrospinal fluid as a clinical tool to predict survival in leptomeningeal metastases","volume":"157","author":"Diaz","year":"2022","journal-title":"J Neurooncol"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"899153","DOI":"10.3389\/fneur.2022.899153","article-title":"Development of two diagnostic prediction models for leptomeningeal metastasis in patients with solid Tumors","volume":"13","author":"Gao","year":"2022","journal-title":"Front Neurol"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref30","volume-title":"Cytology, in diagnostic principles and clinical correlates","author":"Cibas S DS.","year":"2021"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/B978-1-4160-3623-4.00061-4","volume-title":"Spinal puncture and cerebrospinal fluid examination","author":"Euerle","year":"2010"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1503","DOI":"10.1016\/0895-4356(95)00048-8","article-title":"Importance of events per independent variable in proportional hazards regression analysis. II. Accuracy and precision of regression estimates","volume":"48","author":"Peduzzi","year":"1995","journal-title":"J Clin Epidemiol"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref33","volume-title":"Flexible parametric survival analysis using Stata: beyond the cox model","author":"Royston","year":"2011"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"219","DOI":"10.1177\/0962280206074463","article-title":"Multiple imputation of discrete and continuous data by fully conditional specification","volume":"16","author":"Buuren","year":"2007","journal-title":"Stat Methods Med Res"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"699","DOI":"10.1177\/0049124117747303","article-title":"How many imputations do you need? A two-stage calculation using a quadratic rule","volume":"49","author":"Hippel","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sociol Methods Res"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"738","DOI":"10.1177\/1536867X1401400403","article-title":"Tools for checking calibration of a cox model in external validation: approach based on individual event probabilities","volume":"14","author":"Royston","year":"2014","journal-title":"Stata J"},{"key":"2025030608520701200_ref37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2691","DOI":"10.1016\/j.spinee.2014.03.009","article-title":"Primary spinal tumor mortality score (PSTMS): a novel scoring system for predicting poor survival","volume":"14","author":"Sz\u00f6v\u00e9rfi","year":"2014","journal-title":"Spine J"}],"container-title":["Japanese Journal of Clinical Oncology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jjco\/article-pdf\/55\/3\/237\/60762454\/hyae162.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jjco\/article-pdf\/55\/3\/237\/60762454\/hyae162.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,6]],"date-time":"2025-03-06T08:52:26Z","timestamp":1741251146000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jjco\/article\/55\/3\/237\/7905124"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,20]]},"references-count":37,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,20]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,5]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/jjco\/hyae162","relation":{},"ISSN":["1465-3621"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1465-3621","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published-other":{"date-parts":[[2025,3]]},"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,20]]}}}