{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,25]],"date-time":"2026-08-25T22:26:33Z","timestamp":1787696793516,"version":"build-2784847793"},"reference-count":133,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,9,9]],"date-time":"2020-09-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1599609600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/journals\/pages\/open_access\/funder_policies\/chorus\/standard_publication_model"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100008955","name":"Maine Medical Center Research Institute","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100008955","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Maine Department of Health and Human Services"},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100008982","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100008982","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Integrative Graduate Education and Research Traineeship"},{"name":"Adaptation to Abrupt Climate Change","award":["DGE-1144423"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["DGE-1144423"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Geographical range expansions of blacklegged tick [Ixodes scapularis Say (Acari: Ixodidae)] populations over time in the United States have been attributed to a mosaic of factors including 20th century reforestation followed by suburbanization, burgeoning populations of the white-tailed deer [Odocoileus virginianus Zimmerman (Artiodactyla: Cervidae)], and, at the northern edge of I. scapularis\u2019 range, climate change. Maine, a high Lyme disease incidence state, has been experiencing warmer and shorter winter seasons, and relatively more so in its northern tier. Maine served as a case study to investigate the interacting impacts of deer and seasonal climatology on the spatial and temporal distribution of I. scapularis. A passive tick surveillance dataset indexed abundance of I. scapularis nymphs for the state, 1990\u20132013. With Maine\u2019s wildlife management districts as the spatial unit, we used a generalized additive model to assess linear and nonlinear relationships between I. scapularis nymph abundance and predictors. Nymph submission rate increased with increasing deer densities up to ~5 deer\/km2 (13 deer\/mi2), but beyond this threshold did not vary with deer density. This corroborated the idea of a saturating relationship between I. scapularis and deer density. Nymphs also were associated with warmer minimum winter temperatures, earlier degree-day accumulation, and higher relative humidity. However, nymph abundance only increased with warmer winters and degree-day accumulation where deer density exceeded ~2 deer\/km2 (~6\/mi2). Anticipated increases in I. scapularis in the northern tier could be partially mitigated through deer herd management.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1093\/jme\/tjaa180","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,9,9]],"date-time":"2020-09-09T08:24:09Z","timestamp":1599639849000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["A Generalized Additive Model Correlating Blacklegged Ticks With White-Tailed Deer Density, Temperature, and Humidity in Maine, USA, 1990\u20132013"],"prefix":"10.1093","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8103-6579","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Susan P","family":"Elias","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Maine Medical Center Research Institute, Vector-borne Disease Research Laboratory, Scarborough, ME"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Allison M","family":"Gardner","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Biology and Ecology, University of Maine, Orono, ME"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kirk A","family":"Maasch","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Earth and Climate Sciences, University of Maine, Orono, ME"},{"name":"Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, ME"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sean D","family":"Birkel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Earth and Climate Sciences, University of Maine, Orono, ME"},{"name":"Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, ME"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Norman T","family":"Anderson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Anderson Environmental Health, Winslow, ME"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Peter W","family":"Rand","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Maine Medical Center Research Institute, Vector-borne Disease Research Laboratory, Scarborough, ME"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Charles B","family":"Lubelczyk","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Maine Medical Center Research Institute, Vector-borne Disease Research Laboratory, Scarborough, ME"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"suffix":"Jr.","given":"Robert P","family":"Smith","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Maine Medical Center Research Institute, Vector-borne Disease Research Laboratory, Scarborough, ME"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,9,9]]},"reference":[{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"267","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1523-1739.2003.01260.x","article-title":"Effect of forest fragmentation on Lyme disease risk","volume":"17","author":"Allan","year":"2003","journal-title":"Conserv. Biol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"596","DOI":"10.1139\/X08-196","article-title":"Establishment of natural regeneration under severe browsing pressure from white-tailed deer after group seed-tree cutting with scarification on Anticosti Island","volume":"39","author":"Beguin","year":"2009","journal-title":"Can. J. For. Res"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"181","DOI":"10.1186\/1756-3305-7-181","article-title":"Adverse moisture events predict seasonal abundance of Lyme disease vector ticks (Ixodes scapularis)","volume":"7","author":"Berger","year":"2014","journal-title":"Parasit. Vectors"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"192","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ins.2011.12.028","article-title":"On the use of cross-validation for time series predictor evaluation","volume":"191","author":"Bergmeir","year":"2012","journal-title":"Inform. Sci"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0005","volume-title":"Coastal Maine Climate Futures","author":"Birkel","year":"2018"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e200319","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2020.0319","article-title":"Current and future spatiotemporal patterns of lyme disease reporting in the Northeastern United States","volume":"3","author":"Bisanzio","year":"2020","journal-title":"JAMA Netw. Open"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0007","first-page":"797","article-title":"The future of hunting as a mechanism to control white-tailed deer populations","volume":"28","author":"Brown","year":"2000","journal-title":"Wildl. Soc. Bull"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"38","DOI":"10.1007\/s10393-004-0139-x","article-title":"Effect of climate change on Lyme disease risk in North America","volume":"2","author":"Brownstein","year":"2005","journal-title":"Ecohealth"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"469","DOI":"10.1007\/s00442-005-0251-9","article-title":"Forest fragmentation predicts local scale heterogeneity of Lyme disease risk","volume":"146","author":"Brownstein","year":"2005","journal-title":"Oecologia"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0010","volume-title":"Daily 4 km Gridded SWE and Snow Depth from Assimilated In-Situ and Modeled Data over the Conterminous US, Version 1","author":"Broxton","year":"2019"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"139","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/45.1.139","article-title":"Estimating reservoir competence of Borrelia burgdorferi hosts: prevalence and infectivity, sensitivity, and specificity","volume":"45","author":"Brunner","year":"2008","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"981","DOI":"10.1603\/ME12060","article-title":"Overwintering survival of nymphal Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) under natural conditions","volume":"49","author":"Brunner","year":"2012","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"44","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-3032.1996.tb00833.x","article-title":"The role of direct chilling injury and inoculative freezing in cold tolerance of Amblyomma americanum, Dermacentor variabilis and Ixodes scapularis","volume":"21","author":"Burks","year":"1996","journal-title":"Physiol. Entomol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"606","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-016-1894-6","article-title":"The impact of temperature and precipitation on blacklegged tick activity and Lyme disease incidence in endemic and emerging regions","volume":"9","author":"Burtis","year":"2016","journal-title":"Parasit. Vectors"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"12436","DOI":"10.1038\/srep12436","article-title":"Invasion expansion: time since introduction best predicts global ranges of marine invaders","volume":"5","author":"Byers","year":"2015","journal-title":"Sci. Rep"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0016","first-page":"59","article-title":"Modelling catch and effort data using generalized linear models, the Tweedie distribution, random vessel effects and random stratum-by-year effects","volume":"11","author":"Candy","year":"2004","journal-title":"CCAMLR Sci"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0017","article-title":"Data and surveillance","author":"CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)","year":"2019"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0189393","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0189393","article-title":"Northward range expansion of Ixodes scapularis evident over a short timescale in Ontario, Canada","volume":"12","author":"Clow","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"628","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2018.2301","article-title":"Assessing the repeatability of tick dragging as a method for Ixodes scapularis surveillance","volume":"18","author":"Clow","year":"2018","journal-title":"Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100083","DOI":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2019.100083","article-title":"A framework for adaptive surveillance of emerging tick-borne zoonoses","volume":"7","author":"Clow","year":"2019","journal-title":"One Health"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0021","volume-title":"Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences","author":"Cohen","year":"1988","edition":"2nd ed"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3589","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI3816.1","article-title":"Recent climatology, variability and trends in global surface humidity","volume":"19","author":"Dai","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Clim"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2031","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.1688","article-title":"Physiographically sensitive mapping of climatological temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States","volume":"28","author":"Daly","year":"2008","journal-title":"Int. J. Climatol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"471","DOI":"10.1177\/0309133307083294","article-title":"The modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) in physical geography","volume":"31","author":"Dark","year":"2007","journal-title":"Prog. Phys. Geog"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"504","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1466-8238.2010.00526.x","article-title":"Field and climate-based model for predicting the density of host-seeking nymphal Ixodes scapularis, an important vector of tick-borne disease agents in the eastern United States","volume":"19","author":"Diuk-Wasser","year":"2010","journal-title":"Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4419-7390-0","volume-title":"Predictive species and habitat modeling in landscape ecology: concepts and applications","author":"Drew","year":"2011"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0027","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"73","DOI":"10.1007\/s11222-007-9039-6","article-title":"Evaluation of Tweedie exponential dispersion model densities by Fourier inversion","volume":"18","author":"Dunn","year":"2008","journal-title":"Stat. Comput"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"295","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pt.2017.12.006","article-title":"The Blacklegged Tick, Ixodes scapularis: an increasing public health concern","volume":"34","author":"Eisen","year":"2018","journal-title":"Trends Parasitol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"250","DOI":"10.1093\/jme\/tjv199","article-title":"Linkages of weather and climate with Ixodes scapularis and Ixodes pacificus (Acari: Ixodidae), enzootic transmission of Borrelia burgdorferi, and Lyme disease in North America","volume":"53","author":"Eisen","year":"2016","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0030","volume-title":"Blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis) distribution in Maine, USA, as related to climate change, white-tailed deer, and the landscape [dissertation]","author":"Elias","year":"2019"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0031","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"743","DOI":"10.1644\/BER-025","article-title":"Peromyscus leucopus abundance and acorn mast: population fluctuation patterns over 20 years","volume":"85","author":"Elias","year":"2004","journal-title":"J. Mammal"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1142","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/43.6.1142","article-title":"Deer browse resistant exotic-invasive understory: an indicator of elevated human risk of exposure to Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) in southern coastal Maine woodlands","volume":"43","author":"Elias","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0033","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"755","DOI":"10.1093\/jme\/tjz218","article-title":"Decoupling of blacklegged tick abundance and Lyme disease incidence in Southern Maine, USA","volume":"57","author":"Elias","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0034","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"327","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2602.190529","article-title":"Surge in Anaplasmosis cases in Maine, USA, 2013\u20132017","volume":"26","author":"Elias","year":"2020","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Dis"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0035","volume-title":"ArcGIS\u00ae Release 10.6","author":"ESRI (Environmental Systems Research Institute)","year":"2018"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0036","first-page":"24","volume-title":"Maine\u2019s climate future: 2015 update","author":"Fernandez","year":"2015"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0037","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e84758","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0084758","article-title":"Integrated assessment of behavioral and environmental risk factors for Lyme disease infection on Block Island, Rhode Island","volume":"9","author":"Finch","year":"2014","journal-title":"Plos One"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0038","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"861","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-019-4484-3","article-title":"Systematic review and meta-analysis of tick-borne disease risk factors in residential yards, neighborhoods, and beyond","volume":"19","author":"Fischhoff","year":"2019","journal-title":"BMC Infect. Dis"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0039","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"67","DOI":"10.5962\/p.356717","article-title":"Habitat use and distribution of the mice Peromyscus leucopus and P. maniculatus on Mount Desert Island, Maine","volume":"108","author":"Garman","year":"1994","journal-title":"Can. Field-Nat"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0040","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"194","DOI":"10.14745\/ccdr.v43i10a01","article-title":"Surveillance for Lyme disease in Canada: 2009-2015","volume":"43","author":"Gasmi","year":"2017","journal-title":"Can. Commun. Dis. Rep"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0041","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0212637","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0212637","article-title":"Detection of municipalities at-risk of Lyme disease using passive surveillance of Ixodes scapularis as an early signal: A province-specific indicator in Canada","volume":"14","author":"Gasmi","year":"2019","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0042","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"593232","DOI":"10.1155\/2009\/593232","article-title":"Effects of climate change on ticks and tick-borne diseases in Europe","volume":"2009","author":"Gray","year":"2009","journal-title":"Interdiscip. Perspect. Infect. Dis"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0043","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"289","DOI":"10.3201\/eid0803.010166","article-title":"Predicting the risk of Lyme disease: habitat suitability for Ixodes scapularis in the north central United States","volume":"8","author":"Guerra","year":"2002","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Dis"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0044","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"47","DOI":"10.1007\/s10393-010-0287-0","article-title":"Invasion of the lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis: implications for Borrelia burgdorferi endemicity","volume":"7","author":"Hamer","year":"2010","journal-title":"Ecohealth"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0045","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"243","DOI":"10.1002\/env.2331","article-title":"Restricted spatial regression in practice: geostatistical models, confounding, and robustness under model misspecification","volume":"26","author":"Hanks","year":"2015","journal-title":"Environmetrics"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0046","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"325","DOI":"10.1198\/tast.2010.10052","article-title":"Adding spatially-correlated errors can mess up the fixed effect you love","volume":"64","author":"Hodges","year":"2010","journal-title":"Am. Stat"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0047","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"81","DOI":"10.32614\/RJ-2014-026","article-title":"ngspatial: a package for fitting the centered autologistic and sparse spatial generalized linear mixed models for areal data","volume":"6","author":"Hughes","year":"2014","journal-title":"R Journal"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0048","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"139","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9868.2012.01041.x","article-title":"Dimension reduction and alleviation of confounding for spatial generalized linear mixed models","volume":"75","author":"Hughes","year":"2013","journal-title":"J. R. Stat. Soc. Series B Stat"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0049","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2626","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0442(2004)017<2626:CITPOP>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Changes in the proportion of precipitation occurring as snow in New England (1949 to 2000)","volume":"17","author":"Huntington","year":"2004","journal-title":"J. Clim"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0050","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"33","DOI":"10.1080\/10871209.2013.819596","article-title":"Bases of support differ for deer reduction versus behavior change options to manage deer impacts","volume":"19","author":"Johnson","year":"2014","journal-title":"Hum. Dimens. Wildl"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0051","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"752","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/44.5.752","article-title":"Effects of reduced deer density on the abundance of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) and Lyme disease incidence in a northern New Jersey endemic area","volume":"44","author":"Jordan","year":"2007","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0052","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"art85","DOI":"10.1890\/ES12-00134.1","article-title":"Geographical and environmental factors driving the increase in the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis","volume":"3","author":"Khatchikian","year":"2012","journal-title":"Ecosphere"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0053","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"777","DOI":"10.1603\/ME13232","article-title":"The relationship between deer density, tick abundance, and human cases of Lyme disease in a residential community","volume":"51","author":"Kilpatrick","year":"2014","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0054","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20160117","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2016.0117","article-title":"Lyme disease ecology in a changing world: consensus, uncertainty and critical gaps for improving control","volume":"372","author":"Kilpatrick","year":"2017","journal-title":"Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond., B, Biol. Sci"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0055","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"592","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-015-1185-7","article-title":"Insights into the development of Ixodes scapularis: a resource for research on a medically important tick species","volume":"8","author":"Kocan","year":"2015","journal-title":"Parasit. Vectors"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0056","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1455","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2108.141878","article-title":"Geographic distribution and expansion of human Lyme disease, United States","volume":"21","author":"Kugeler","year":"2015","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Dis"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0057","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"337","DOI":"10.1111\/zph.12245","article-title":"Will culling white-tailed deer prevent Lyme disease?","volume":"63","author":"Kugeler","year":"2016","journal-title":"Zoonoses Public Health"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0058","first-page":"104 pp","volume-title":"White-tailed deer assessment and strategic plan, 1997","author":"Lavigne","year":"1999"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0059","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"457","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2664.2012.02112.x","article-title":"Predicting the speed of tick invasion: an empirical model of range expansion for the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis in Canada","volume":"49","author":"Leighton","year":"2012","journal-title":"J. Appl. Ecol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0060","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20130556","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2013.0556","article-title":"Accelerated phenology of blacklegged ticks under climate warming","volume":"370","author":"Levi","year":"2015","journal-title":"Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0061","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"15","DOI":"10.1186\/1476-072X-6-15","article-title":"Determinants of the geographic distribution of Puumala virus and Lyme borreliosis infections in Belgium","volume":"6","author":"Linard","year":"2007","journal-title":"Int. J. Health Geogr"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0062","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"143","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/32.2.143","article-title":"Survival and development of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) under various climatic conditions in Ontario, Canada","volume":"32","author":"Lindsay","year":"1995","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0063","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"227","DOI":"10.3390\/insects10080227","article-title":"Impacts of deciduous leaf litter and snow presence on nymphal Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) overwintering survival in coastal New England, USA","volume":"10","author":"Linske","year":"2019","journal-title":"Insects"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0064","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"13","DOI":"10.3390\/insects11010013","article-title":"Determining effects of winter weather conditions on adult Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae) survival in Connecticut and Maine, USA","volume":"11","author":"Linske","year":"2020","journal-title":"Insects"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0065","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"900","DOI":"10.1603\/0046-225X-33.4.900","article-title":"Habitat associations of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) in Maine","volume":"33","author":"Lubelczyk","year":"2004","journal-title":"Environ. Entomol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0066","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7827","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-17-0098.1","article-title":"Diverse characteristics of U.S. summer heat waves","volume":"30","author":"Lyon","year":"2017","journal-title":"J. Clim"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0067","article-title":"Data catalog: Maine Wildlife Management Districts Layer","author":"Maine GeoLibrary","year":"2019"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0068","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"143","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a115306","article-title":"Comparing the relative potential of rodents as reservoirs of the Lyme disease spirochete (Borrelia burgdorferi)","volume":"130","author":"Mather","year":"1989","journal-title":"Am. J. Epidemiol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0069","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"45","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1749-6632.2011.06376.x","article-title":"Ecology and management of white-tailed deer in a changing world","volume":"1249","author":"McShea","year":"2012","journal-title":"Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0070","first-page":"351 pp","volume-title":"Deer population management system and database","author":"MDIFW (Maine Department of Inland Fisheries and Wildlife)","year":"2007"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0071","first-page":"97","volume-title":"2017 Big Game Management Plan","author":"MDIFW (Maine Department of Inland Fisheries and Wildlife)","year":"2017"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0072","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2189","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMp1911661","article-title":"Bracing for the worst - range expansion of the lone star tick in the Northeastern United States","volume":"381","author":"Molaei","year":"2019","journal-title":"N. Engl. J. Med"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0073","first-page":"69","article-title":"Statistics corner: a guide to appropriate use of correlation coefficient in medical research","volume":"24","author":"Mukaka","year":"2012","journal-title":"Malawi Med. J"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0074","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"89","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1538-4632.2008.00719.x","article-title":"Symptoms of instability in models of spatial dependence","volume":"40","author":"Mur","year":"2008","journal-title":"Geogr. Anal"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0075","volume-title":"The NCAR Command Language (Version 6.4.0)","author":"NCL","year":"2018"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0076","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"659","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.en.36.010191.003303","article-title":"Off-host physiological ecology of ixodid ticks","volume":"36","author":"Needham","year":"1991","journal-title":"Annu. Rev. Entomol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0077","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"711","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/33.5.711","article-title":"Methods for evaluating Lyme disease risks using geographic information systems and geospatial analysis","volume":"33","author":"Nicholson","year":"1996","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0078","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"419","DOI":"10.1093\/jmammal\/gyw200","article-title":"Demographic mechanisms linking tree seeds and rodent population fluctuations: insights from a 33-year study","volume":"98","author":"Ogawa","year":"2017","journal-title":"J. Mammal"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0079","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"622","DOI":"10.1603\/0022-2585-41.4.622","article-title":"Investigation of relationships between temperature and developmental rates of tick Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) in the laboratory and field","volume":"41","author":"Ogden","year":"2004","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0080","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"63","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijpara.2005.08.016","article-title":"Climate change and the potential for range expansion of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis in Canada","volume":"36","author":"Ogden","year":"2006","journal-title":"Int. J. Parasitol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0081","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"600","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/43.3.600","article-title":"Ixodes scapularis ticks collected by passive surveillance in Canada: analysis of geographic distribution and infection with Lyme borreliosis agent Borrelia burgdorferi","volume":"43","author":"Ogden","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0082","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"24","DOI":"10.1186\/1476-072X-7-24","article-title":"Risk maps for range expansion of the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis, in Canada now and with climate change","volume":"7","author":"Ogden","year":"2008","journal-title":"Int. J. Health Geogr"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0083","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1780","DOI":"10.1128\/AEM.01982-07","article-title":"Role of migratory birds in introduction and range expansion of Ixodes scapularis ticks and of Borrelia burgdorferi and Anaplasma phagocytophilum in Canada","volume":"74","author":"Ogden","year":"2008","journal-title":"Appl. Environ. Microbiol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0084","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"924","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/43.5.924","article-title":"Prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi in small mammals in New York state","volume":"43","author":"Oliver","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0085","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"17","DOI":"10.1068\/a160017","article-title":"Ecological fallacies and the analysis of areal census data","volume":"16","author":"Openshaw","year":"1984","journal-title":"Environ. Plan. A"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0086","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"107","DOI":"10.1214\/10-STS326","article-title":"The importance of scale for spatial-confounding bias and precision of spatial regression estimators","volume":"25","author":"Paciorek","year":"2010","journal-title":"Stat. Sci"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0087","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20140377","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2014.0377","article-title":"Preface: climate change and vector-borne diseases of humans","volume":"370","author":"Parham","year":"2015","journal-title":"Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond., B, Biol. Sci"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0088","first-page":"341","article-title":"Mapping disease risk estimates based on small numbers: an assessment of empirical Bayes techniques","volume":"27","author":"Pringle","year":"1996","journal-title":"Econ. Soc. Rev"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0089","author":"PRISM Climate Group. PRISM climate data","year":"2004"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0090","volume-title":"R: A language and environment for statistical computing","author":"R Core Team","year":"2018"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0091","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"614","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/30.3.614","article-title":"Competence of Peromyscus maniculatus (Rodentia: Cricetidae) as a reservoir host for Borrelia burgdorferi (Spirochaetares: Spirochaetaceae) in the wild","volume":"30","author":"Rand","year":"1993","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0092","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"270","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/35.3.270","article-title":"Participation of birds (Aves) in the emergence of Lyme disease in southern Maine","volume":"35","author":"Rand","year":"1998","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0093","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"179","DOI":"10.1603\/0022-2585-40.2.179","article-title":"Deer density and the abundance of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae)","volume":"40","author":"Rand","year":"2003","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0094","first-page":"164","article-title":"Thermal accumulation and the early development of Ixodes scapularis","volume":"29","author":"Rand","year":"2004","journal-title":"J. Vector Ecol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0095","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1118","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/44.6.1118","article-title":"Passive surveillance in Maine, an area emergent for tick-borne diseases","volume":"44","author":"Rand","year":"2007","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0096","first-page":"5","article-title":"Evidence that climate change has caused \u2018emergence\u2019 of tick-borne diseases in Europe?","volume":"293","author":"Randolph","year":"2004","journal-title":"Int. J. Med. Microbiol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0097","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"367","DOI":"10.20506\/rst.27.2.1805","article-title":"Dynamics of tick-borne disease systems: minor role of recent climate change","volume":"27","author":"Randolph","year":"2008","journal-title":"Rev. Sci. Tech"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0098","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"37","DOI":"10.3390\/environments4020037","article-title":"Do tick attachment times vary between different tick-pathogen systems?","volume":"4","author":"Richards","year":"2017","journal-title":"Environments"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0099","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1016","DOI":"10.1093\/jme\/tjy030","article-title":"Passive tick surveillance provides an accurate early signal of emerging Lyme disease risk and human cases in Southern Canada","volume":"55","author":"Ripoche","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0100","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"913","DOI":"10.1111\/ecog.02881","article-title":"Cross-validation strategies for data with temporal, spatial, hierarchical, or phylogenetic structure","volume":"40","author":"Roberts","year":"2017","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0101","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"6","DOI":"10.1186\/s12963-018-0164-6","article-title":"The relevance of spatial aggregation level and of applied methods in the analysis of geographical distribution of cancer mortality in mainland Portugal (2009\u20132013)","volume":"16","author":"Roquette","year":"2018","journal-title":"Popul. Health Metr"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0102","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"496","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm6717e1","article-title":"Vital signs: trends in reported vectorborne disease cases - United States and territories, 2004-2016","volume":"67","author":"Rosenberg","year":"2018","journal-title":"MMWR. Morb. Mortal. Wkly. Rep"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0103","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e80724","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0080724","article-title":"Poleward expansion of the white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus) under climate change: implications for the spread of Lyme disease","volume":"8","author":"Roy-Dufresne","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0104","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1763","DOI":"10.1213\/ANE.0000000000002864","article-title":"Correlation coefficients: appropriate use and interpretation","volume":"126","author":"Schober","year":"2018","journal-title":"Anesth. Analg"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0105","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"395","DOI":"10.1603\/0022-2585-40.4.395","article-title":"Meteorologically mediated diurnal questing of Ixodes scapularis and Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae) nymphs","volume":"40","author":"Schulze","year":"2003","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol"},{"issue":"3","key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0106","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"285","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/42.3.285","article-title":"Influence of meso- and microscale habitat structure on focal distribution of sympatric Ixodes scapularis and Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae)","volume":"42","author":"Schulze","year":"2005","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0107","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.ss6622a1","article-title":"Surveillance for Lyme disease\u2014United States, 2008-2015","volume":"66","author":"Schwartz","year":"2017","journal-title":"MMWR. Surveill. Summ"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0108","author":"Simpson","year":"2014"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0109","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"221","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/174.1.221","article-title":"Role of bird migration in the long-distance dispersal of Ixodes dammini, the vector of Lyme disease","volume":"174","author":"Smith","year":"1996","journal-title":"J. Infect. Dis"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0110","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1727","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2010.130938","article-title":"Human babesiosis, Maine, USA, 1995\u20132011","volume":"20","author":"Smith","year":"2014","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Dis"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0111","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"Article 13","DOI":"10.46804\/2641-2225.1016","article-title":"Increasing actual and perceived burden of tick-borne disease in Maine","volume":"1","author":"Smith","year":"2019","journal-title":"J. Maine Med. Center"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0112","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"235","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2017.2234","article-title":"High-resolution ecological niche modeling of Ixodes scapularis ticks based on passive surveillance data at the northern frontier of Lyme disease emergence in North America","volume":"18","author":"Soucy","year":"2018","journal-title":"Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0113","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"439","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.en.30.010185.002255","article-title":"Ecology of Ixodes dammini-borne human babesiosis and Lyme disease","volume":"30","author":"Spielman","year":"1985","journal-title":"Annu. Rev. Entomol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0114","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"310","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/31.2.310","article-title":"Survival of immature Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) at different relative humidities","volume":"31","author":"Stafford","year":"1994","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0115","author":"Stafford","year":"2007"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0116","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"642","DOI":"10.1603\/0022-2585-40.5.642","article-title":"Reduced abundance of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) and the tick parasitoid Ixodiphagus hookeri (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) with reduction of white-tailed deer","volume":"40","author":"Stafford","year":"2003","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0117","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"164","DOI":"10.36019\/9780813556031-010","article-title":"Forum: perspectives on the environmental management of ticks and Lyme disease,","volume-title":"Ecology and Environmental Management of Lyme disease","author":"Telford","year":"1993"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0118","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"310","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780195150933.003.0024","article-title":"Deer tick-transmitted zoonoses in northeastern United States,","volume-title":"Conservation medicine: ecological health in practice","author":"Telford","year":"2002"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0119","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1093\/jipm\/pmx024","article-title":"Deer reduction Is a cornerstone of integrated deer tick management","volume":"8","author":"Telford","year":"2017","journal-title":"J. Integr. Pest Manag"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0120","volume-title":"Gap Analysis Program, 20160513, GAP\/LANDFIRE National Terrestrial Ecosystems 2011","author":"USGS (U.S. Geological Survey).","year":"2011"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0121","article-title":"City and Town Population Totals: 2010-2019","author":"USCB (U.S. Census Bureau)","year":"2020"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0122","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1025","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/35.6.1025","article-title":"Air temperature and relative humidity effects on behavioral activity of blacklegged tick (Acari: Ixodidae) nymphs in New Jersey","volume":"35","author":"Vail","year":"1998","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0123","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"6","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/33.1.6","article-title":"Survival of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) exposed to cold","volume":"33","author":"Vandyk","year":"1996","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0124","volume-title":"The effects of climate on Ixodes scapularis overwintering survival in Maine","author":"Volk","year":"2019"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0125","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"133","DOI":"10.1007\/s10144-008-0094-4","article-title":"Comparative population dynamics of Peromyscus leucopus in North America: influences of climate, food, and density dependence","volume":"51","author":"Wang","year":"2009","journal-title":"Popul. Ecol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0126","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"137","DOI":"10.1002\/wsb.236","article-title":"Evaluation of organized hunting as a management technique for overabundant white-tailed deer in suburban landscapes","volume":"37","author":"Williams","year":"2013","journal-title":"Wildl. Soc. Bull"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0127","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"151","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2915.1990.tb00273.x","article-title":"Microgeographic distribution of immature Ixodes dammini ticks correlated with that of deer","volume":"4","author":"Wilson","year":"1990","journal-title":"Med. Vet. Entomol"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0128","volume-title":"WMO Guide to Meteorological Instruments and Methods of Observation (CIMO Guide)","author":"WMO (World Meteorological Organization)","year":"2008","edition":"8th ed"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0129","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"495","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9868.2007.00646.x","article-title":"Fast stable direct fitting and smoothness selection for Generalized Additive Models","volume":"70","author":"Wood","year":"2008","journal-title":"J. R. Stat. Soc. B"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0130","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1201\/9781315370279","volume-title":"Generalized additive models: an introduction with R","author":"Wood","year":"2017","edition":"2nd ed."},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0131","volume-title":"Biostatistical analysis","author":"Zar","year":"2010","edition":"5th ed."},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0132","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"907","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ttbdis.2014.07.006","article-title":"Peri-urbanisation, counter-urbanisation, and an extension of residential exposure to ticks: a clue to the trends in Lyme borreliosis incidence in the Czech Republic?","volume":"5","author":"Zeman","year":"2014","journal-title":"Ticks Tick. Borne. Dis"},{"key":"2020090904235090400_CIT0133","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"12940","DOI":"10.1029\/2018GL079621","article-title":"Snowpack change from 1982 to 2016 over conterminous United States","volume":"45","author":"Zeng","year":"2018","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett"}],"container-title":["Journal of Medical Entomology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jme\/advance-article-pdf\/doi\/10.1093\/jme\/tjaa180\/33728174\/tjaa180.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"http:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jme\/advance-article-pdf\/doi\/10.1093\/jme\/tjaa180\/33728174\/tjaa180.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,13]],"date-time":"2024-08-13T12:52:42Z","timestamp":1723553562000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jme\/advance-article\/doi\/10.1093\/jme\/tjaa180\/5903223"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Holly","family":"Gaff","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2020,9,9]]},"references-count":133,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/jme\/tjaa180","relation":{},"ISSN":["0022-2585","1938-2928"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0022-2585","type":"print"},{"value":"1938-2928","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2020,9,9]]},"article-number":"tjaa180"}}