{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,13]],"date-time":"2026-10-13T15:26:11Z","timestamp":1791905171599,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":42,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,7]],"date-time":"2021-04-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1617753600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/journals\/pages\/open_access\/funder_policies\/chorus\/standard_publication_model"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100006108","name":"National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100006108","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000002","name":"National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["KL2 TR001115"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["KL2 TR001115"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000002","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Ken and Sherrilyn Fisher Center for Environmental Infectious Diseases"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,16]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Lyme disease is the most common tick-borne disease in North America. Though human infection is mostly transmitted in a limited geography, the range has expanded in recent years. One notable area of recent expansion is in the mountainous region of southwestern Virginia. The ecological factors that facilitate or constrain the range of human Lyme disease in this region remain uncertain. To evaluate this further, we obtained ecological data, including remotely sensed data on forest structure and vegetation, weather data, and elevation. These data were aggregated within the census block groups of a 9,153 km2 area around the cities of Blacksburg and Roanoke, VA, an area with heterogeneous Lyme disease transmission. In this geographic area, 755 individuals were reported to have Lyme disease in the 10 yr from 2006 to 2015, and these cases were aggregated by block group. A zero-inflated negative binomial model was used to evaluate which environmental variables influenced the abundance of Lyme disease cases. Higher elevation and higher vegetation density had the greatest effect size on the abundance of Lyme disease. Measures of forest edge, forest integrity, temperature, and humidity were not associated with Lyme disease cases. Future southward expansion of Lyme disease into the southeastern states may be most likely in ecologically similar mountainous areas.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1093\/jme\/tjab038","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,7]],"date-time":"2021-04-07T11:35:33Z","timestamp":1617795333000},"page":"1680-1685","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":13,"title":["Environmental Correlates of Lyme Disease Emergence in Southwest Virginia, 2005\u20132014"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"58","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2339-1481","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Paul M","family":"Lantos","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Departments of Medicine, Pediatrics, Community and Family Medicine, and Global Health, Duke University, Durham, NC"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6641-7931","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jean","family":"Tsao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, Lansing, MI"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mark","family":"Janko","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ali","family":"Arab","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Georgetown University, Washington, DC"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2938-4549","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Michael E","family":"von Fricken","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Global and Community Health, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Paul G","family":"Auwaerter","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lise E","family":"Nigrovic","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Emergency Medicine, Boston Children\u2019s Hospital, Boston, MA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Vance","family":"Fowler","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medicine, Duke University, Durham, NC"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Felicia","family":"Ruffin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medicine, Duke University, Durham, NC"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"David","family":"Gaines","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Office of Epidemiology, Virginia Department of Health, Richmond, VA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"James","family":"Broyhill","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Office of Epidemiology, Virginia Department of Health, Richmond, VA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jennifer","family":"Swenson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"2021071619204346300_CIT0001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"267","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1523-1739.2003.01260.x","article-title":"Effect of forest fragmentation on Lyme disease risk","volume":"17","author":"Allan","year":"2003","journal-title":"Conserv. 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