{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,28]],"date-time":"2026-10-28T15:32:11Z","timestamp":1793201531129,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":49,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,4]],"date-time":"2026-09-04T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1788480000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/pages\/standard-publication-reuse-rights"}],"funder":[{"name":"Czech Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports under the ERC CZ programme","award":["LL2410"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["LL2410"]}],"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/037n8p820","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Hyalomma marginatum (Ixodida: Ixodidae) is the principal vector of Crimean\u2013Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) and an emerging public health concern because climate change may facilitate its establishment in regions where it is currently absent. We used ecological niche modeling to characterize the current climatic suitability of H. marginatum and project its future redistribution across the Old World under CMIP6 climate scenarios. Models were calibrated using a comprehensive dataset of spatially filtered occurrence records and bioclimatic predictors within a biologically informed accessible area (M). To evaluate projection robustness, we implemented 4 alternative accessible-area hypotheses (M1\u2013M4), including an Eastern Hemisphere-constrained scenario, compared MaxEnt projections with independently fitted Boosted Regression Trees (BRT), and quantified prediction uncertainty using pixel-wise variance decomposition. Current projections identified the Mediterranean Basin, North Africa, the Middle East, and western to central Asia as the principal regions of climatic suitability. Future projections consistently indicated a marked northward redistribution of suitable conditions into Central and Northern Europe, particularly under the high-emissions SSP5-8.5 scenario, while localized reductions in suitability were projected across parts of southern Europe and North Africa. Accessible-area definition and modeling algorithm contributed more to overall projection uncertainty than differences among climate models or emissions scenarios, highlighting the importance of explicitly evaluating methodological uncertainty in ecological forecasts. The broad pattern of northward redistribution was consistent across accessible-area hypotheses, modeling algorithms, and climate projections, although quantitative uncertainty remained substantial. These findings provide a stronger evidence base for climate-informed surveillance and preparedness strategies for Crimean\u2013Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF).<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1093\/jme\/tjag163","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,21]],"date-time":"2026-10-21T04:28:06Z","timestamp":1792556886000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Climate-driven redistribution of\n                    <i>Hyalomma marginatum<\/i>\n                    (Ixodida: Ixodidae): robust ecological niche modeling reveals future expansion and quantifies projection uncertainty"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"63","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8699-2279","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Seyma S","family":"Celina","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Infectious Animal Diseases, Faculty of Tropical AgriSciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague , Prague,","place":["Czech Republic"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ji\u0159\u00ed","family":"\u010cern\u00fd","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Infectious Animal Diseases, Faculty of Tropical AgriSciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague , Prague,","place":["Czech Republic"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3978-1134","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Abdallah M","family":"Samy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Entomology Department, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University , Cairo,","place":["Egypt"]},{"name":"One Health Research Unit, Medical Ain Shams Research Institute (MASRI), Faculty of Medicine, Ain Shams University , Cairo,","place":["Egypt"]},{"name":"Basic Sciences Council, Academy of Scientific Research and Technology , Cairo,","place":["Egypt"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,20]]},"reference":[{"key":"2026102810373588100_tjag163-B1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"13","DOI":"10.1080\/01647950808683704","article-title":"The genus Hyalomma Koch, 1844: V. Re-evaluation of the taxonomic rank of taxa comprising the H. (Euhyalomma) marginatum Koch complex of species (Acari: Ixodidae) with redescription of all parasitic stages and notes on biology","volume":"34","author":"Apanaskevich","year":"2008","journal-title":"Int. J. Acarol"},{"key":"2026102810373588100_tjag163-B2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e2351","DOI":"10.1111\/tbed.14578","article-title":"The Crimean\u2013Congo haemorrhagic fever tick vector Hyalomma marginatum in the south of France: modelling its distribution and determination of factors influencing its establishment in a newly invaded area","volume":"69","author":"Bah","year":"2022","journal-title":"Transbound. Emerg. 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