{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,11,7]],"date-time":"2026-11-07T04:31:26Z","timestamp":1794025886787,"version":"4.8.0"},"reference-count":59,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,13]],"date-time":"2022-01-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1642032000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/journals\/pages\/open_access\/funder_policies\/chorus\/standard_publication_model"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000054","name":"National Cancer Institute","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["P01CA154292"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["P01CA154292"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000054","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000054","name":"National Cancer Institute","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["U54CA163303"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["U54CA163303"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000054","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000133","name":"Agency for Health Research and Quality","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["R01 HS018366-01A1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R01 HS018366-01A1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000133","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"name":"University of Vermont Cancer Center with funds generously awarded by the Lake Champlain Cancer Research Organization","award":["032800"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["032800"]}]},{"name":"Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute (PCORI) award","award":["PCS-1504-30370"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["PCS-1504-30370"]}]},{"name":"Cancer and vital status data collection was supported by several state public health departments and cancer registries"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,5,9]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Estimating advanced breast cancer risk in women undergoing annual or biennial mammography could identify women who may benefit from less or more intensive screening. We developed an actionable model to predict cumulative 6-year advanced cancer (prognostic pathologic stage II or higher) risk according to screening interval.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>We included 931\u2009186 women aged 40-74\u2009years in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium undergoing 2\u2009542\u2009382 annual (prior mammogram within 11-18\u2009months) or 752\u2009049 biennial (prior within 19-30\u2009months) screening mammograms. The prediction model includes age, race and ethnicity, body mass index, breast density, family history of breast cancer, and prior breast biopsy subdivided by menopausal status and screening interval. We used fivefold cross-validation to internally validate model performance. We defined higher than 95th percentile as high risk (&amp;gt;0.658%), higher than 75th percentile to 95th or less percentile as intermediate risk (0.380%-0.658%), and 75th or less percentile as low to average risk (&amp;lt;0.380%).<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Obesity, high breast density, and proliferative disease with atypia were strongly associated with advanced cancer. The model is well calibrated and has an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.682 (95% confidence interval = 0.670 to 0.694). Based on women\u2019s predicted advanced cancer risk under annual and biennial screening, 69.1% had low or average risk regardless of screening interval, 12.4% intermediate risk with biennial screening and average risk with annual screening, and 17.4% intermediate or high risk regardless of screening interval.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Most women have low or average advanced cancer risk and can undergo biennial screening. Intermediate-risk women may consider annual screening, and high-risk women may consider supplemental imaging in addition to annual screening.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/djac008","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,11]],"date-time":"2022-01-11T20:14:05Z","timestamp":1641932045000},"page":"676-685","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":49,"title":["Cumulative Advanced Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Model Developed in a Screening Mammography Population"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"114","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8793-8779","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Karla","family":"Kerlikowske","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medicine and Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA"},{"name":"General Internal Medicine Section, Department of Veterans Affairs, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4016-8217","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Shuai","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health Sciences, University of California, Davis, CA, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2111-0773","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Marzieh K","family":"Golmakani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Pfizer Inc, San Diego, CA, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Brian L","family":"Sprague","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgery and Radiology, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9857-2028","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jeffrey A","family":"Tice","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medicine and Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7718-8943","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Anna N A","family":"Tosteson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth, Lebanon, NH, USA"},{"name":"Norris Cotton Cancer Center, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth, Lebanon, NH, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Garth H","family":"Rauscher","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health, Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Louise M","family":"Henderson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Radiology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5408-2804","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Diana S M","family":"Buist","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Kaiser Permanente Washington, Seattle, WA, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6452-8168","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Janie M","family":"Lee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Radiology, University of Washington, and Seattle Cancer Care Alliance, Seattle, WA, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7201-4450","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Charlotte C","family":"Gard","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economics, Applied Statistics, and International Business, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5547-1833","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Diana L","family":"Miglioretti","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health Sciences, University of California, Davis, CA, USA"},{"name":"Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Kaiser Permanente Washington, Seattle, WA, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,13]]},"reference":[{"issue":"22","key":"2022051008271671500_djac008-B1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3959","DOI":"10.1002\/cncr.28310","article-title":"Mammographic screening interval in relation to tumor characteristics and false-positive risk by race\/ethnicity and 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