{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,23]],"date-time":"2026-09-23T06:55:06Z","timestamp":1790146506404,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":38,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,19]],"date-time":"2023-01-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1674086400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Intramural Research Program"},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000054","name":"National Cancer Institute","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000054","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000002","name":"National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000002","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,4,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>Human papillomavirus (HVP)\u2013positive oropharyngeal cancer is the most common HPV-associated cancer in the United States. The age at acquisition of oral HPV infections that cause oropharyngeal cancer (causal infections) is unknown; consequently, the benefit of vaccination of US men aged 27-45 years remains uncertain.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>We developed a microsimulation-based, individual-level, state-transition model of oral HPV16 and HPV16-positive oropharyngeal cancer among heterosexual US men aged 15-84\u2009years, calibrated to population-level data. We estimated the benefit of vaccination of men aged 27-45 years for prevention of oropharyngeal cancer, accounting for direct- and indirect effects (ie, herd effects) of male and female vaccination.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>In the absence of vaccination, most (70%) causal oral HPV16 infections are acquired by age 26 years, and 29% are acquired between ages 27 and 45 years. Among men aged 15-45 years in 2021 (1976-2006 birth cohorts), status quo vaccination of men through age 26 years is estimated to prevent 95% of 153\u200a450 vaccine-preventable cancers. Assuming 100% vaccination in 2021, extending the upper age limit to 30, 35, 40, or 45 years for men aged 27-45 years (1976-1994 cohorts) is estimated to yield small benefits (3.0%, 4.2%, 5.1%, and 5.6% additional cancers prevented, respectively). Importantly, status quo vaccination of men through age 26 years is predicted to result in notable declines in HPV16-positive oropharyngeal cancer incidence in young men by 2035 (51% and 24% declines at ages 40-44 years and 45-49 years, respectively) and noticeable declines (12%) overall by 2045.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>Most causal oral HPV16 infections in US men are acquired by age 26 years, underscoring limited benefit from vaccination of men aged 27-45 years for prevention of HPV16-positive oropharyngeal cancers.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/djad009","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,19]],"date-time":"2023-01-19T13:36:09Z","timestamp":1674135369000},"page":"429-436","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["Upper age limits for US male human papillomavirus vaccination for oropharyngeal cancer prevention: a microsimulation-based modeling study"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"115","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4042-4820","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Rebecca","family":"Landy","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute , Rockville, MD, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Gregory","family":"Haber","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Information Technology Laboratory, National Institute of Standards and Technology , Gaithersburg, MD, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Barry I","family":"Graubard","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute , Rockville, MD, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nicole G","family":"Campos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health , Boston, MA, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Stephen","family":"Sy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health , Boston, MA, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jane J","family":"Kim","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health , Boston, MA, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6657-5849","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Emily A","family":"Burger","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health , Boston, MA, USA"},{"name":"Department of Health Management and Health Economics, University of Oslo , Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Li C","family":"Cheung","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute , Rockville, MD, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2002-0095","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hormuzd A","family":"Katki","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute , Rockville, MD, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Maura L","family":"Gillison","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Cancer Medicine, MD Anderson Cancer Center , Houston, TX, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Anil K","family":"Chaturvedi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute , Rockville, MD, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,19]]},"reference":[{"issue":"12","key":"2023041108171373000_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1085","DOI":"10.1080\/14760584.2018.1548282","article-title":"Efficacy and safety of prophylactic HPV vaccines. 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