{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,27]],"date-time":"2026-08-27T06:30:51Z","timestamp":1787812251973,"version":"build-2784847793"},"reference-count":35,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,3,11]],"date-time":"2024-03-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1710115200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/pages\/standard-publication-reuse-rights"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000054","name":"National Cancer Institute","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["P01CA154292"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["P01CA154292"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000054","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Annual surveillance mammography is recommended for women with a personal history of breast cancer. Risk prediction models that estimate mammography failures such as interval second breast cancers could help to tailor surveillance imaging regimens to women\u2019s individual risk profiles.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>In a cohort of women with a history of breast cancer receiving surveillance mammography in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium in 1996-2019, we used Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO)-penalized regression to estimate the probability of an interval second cancer (invasive cancer or ductal carcinoma in situ) in the 1 year after a negative surveillance mammogram. Based on predicted risks from this one-year risk model, we generated cumulative risks of an interval second cancer for the five-year period after each mammogram. Model performance was evaluated using cross-validation in the overall cohort and within race and ethnicity strata.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>In 173\u200a290 surveillance mammograms, we observed 496 interval cancers. One-year risk models were well-calibrated (expected\/observed ratio\u2009=\u20091.00) with good accuracy (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve\u2009=\u20090.64). Model performance was similar across race and ethnicity groups. The median five-year cumulative risk was 1.20% (interquartile range 0.93%-1.63%). Median five-year risks were highest in women who were under age 40 or pre- or perimenopausal at diagnosis and those with estrogen receptor-negative primary breast cancers.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Our risk model identified women at high risk of interval second breast cancers who may benefit from additional surveillance imaging modalities. Risk models should be evaluated to determine if risk-guided supplemental surveillance imaging improves early detection and decreases surveillance failures.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/djae063","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,3,11]],"date-time":"2024-03-11T20:04:26Z","timestamp":1710187466000},"page":"929-937","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Predicting five-year interval second breast cancer risk in women with prior breast cancer"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"116","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0879-0994","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Rebecca A","family":"Hubbard","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Informatics, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine , Philadelphia, PA, 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L","family":"Miglioretti","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Kaiser Permanente Washington , Seattle, WA, USA"},{"name":"Division of Biostatistics, Department of Public Health Sciences, University of California Davis , Davis, CA, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7718-8943","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Anna N A","family":"Tosteson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice and Dartmouth Cancer Center, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth , Lebanon, NH, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7945-0327","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Karen J","family":"Wernli","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Kaiser Permanente Washington , Seattle, WA, 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