{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,24]],"date-time":"2026-07-24T06:03:45Z","timestamp":1784873025001,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":53,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,23]],"date-time":"2024-07-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1721692800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/pages\/standard-publication-reuse-rights"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100007313","name":"University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100007313","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100007314","name":"Duncan Family Institute for Cancer Prevention and Risk Assessment","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100007314","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000002","name":"NIH","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000002","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Ovarian cancer is among the leading causes of gynecologic cancer-related death. Past ovarian cancer screening trials using combination of cancer antigen 125 testing and transvaginal ultrasound failed to yield statistically significant mortality reduction. Estimates of ovarian cancer sojourn time\u2014that is, the period from when the cancer is first screen detectable until clinical detection\u2014may inform future screening programs.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We modeled ovarian cancer progression as a continuous time Markov chain and estimated screening modality\u2013specific sojourn time and sensitivity using a Bayesian approach. Model inputs were derived from the screening arms (multimodal and ultrasound) of the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening and the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian cancer screening trials. We assessed the quality of our estimates by using the posterior predictive P value. We derived histology-specific sojourn times by adjusting the overall sojourn time based on the corresponding histology-specific survival from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The overall ovarian cancer sojourn time was 2.1\u2009years (posterior predictive P value\u2009=\u2009.469) in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian studies, with 65.7% screening sensitivity. The sojourn time was 2.0\u2009years (posterior predictive P value\u2009=\u2009.532) in the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening\u2019s multimodal screening arm and 2.4\u2009years (posterior predictive P value\u2009=\u2009.640) in the ultrasound screening arm, with sensitivities of 93.2% and 64.5%, respectively. Stage-specific screening sensitivities in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian studies were 39.1% and 82.9% for early-stage and advanced-stage disease, respectively. The histology-specific sojourn times ranged from 0.8 to 1.8\u2009years for type II ovarian cancer and 2.9 to 6.6\u2009years for type I ovarian cancer.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Annual screening is not effective for all ovarian cancer subtypes. Screening sensitivity for early-stage ovarian cancers is not sufficient for substantial mortality reduction.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/djae145","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,21]],"date-time":"2024-06-21T02:15:21Z","timestamp":1718936121000},"page":"1798-1806","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":13,"title":["Estimating sojourn time and sensitivity of screening for ovarian cancer using a Bayesian framework"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"116","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7728-2227","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sayaka","family":"Ishizawa","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Health Services Research, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center , Houston, TX,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jiangong","family":"Niu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Health Services Research, The 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The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center , Houston, TX,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Larissa A","family":"Meyer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Gynecologic Oncology and Reproductive Medicine, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center , Houston, TX,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3462-2137","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Iakovos","family":"Toumazis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Health Services Research, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center , Houston, TX,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,23]]},"reference":[{"issue":"1","key":"2026072401464565100_djae145-B1","first-page":"12","article-title":"Cancer statistics, 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