{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,20]],"date-time":"2026-01-20T02:07:34Z","timestamp":1768874854056,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":21,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,25]],"date-time":"2024-11-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1732492800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/pages\/standard-publication-reuse-rights"}],"funder":[{"name":"Delphi group"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,14]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:p>The effect of public health interventions on an epidemic are often estimated by adding the intervention to epidemic models. During the Covid-19 epidemic, numerous papers used such methods for making scenario predictions. The majority of these papers use Bayesian methods to estimate the parameters of the model. In this article, we show how to use frequentist methods for estimating these effects which avoids having to specify prior distributions. We also use model-free shrinkage methods to improve estimation when there are many different geographic regions. This allows us to borrow strength from different regions while still getting confidence intervals with correct coverage and without having to specify a hierarchical model. Throughout, we focus on a semi-mechanistic model which provides a simple, tractable alternative to compartmental methods.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1093\/jrsssb\/qkae110","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,25]],"date-time":"2024-11-25T07:05:56Z","timestamp":1732518356000},"page":"701-722","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Frequentist inference for semi-mechanistic epidemic models with interventions"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"87","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3906-2175","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Heejong","family":"Bong","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics, University of Michigan , 500 S State St., Ann Arbor, MI 48109 ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Val\u00e9rie","family":"Ventura","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics and Data Science, Carnegie Mellon University , 5000 Forbes Ave., Pittsburgh, PA 15213 ,","place":["USA"]},{"name":"Delphi Research Group, Carnegie Mellon University , 5000 Forbes Ave., Pittsburgh, PA 15213 ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Larry","family":"Wasserman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics and Data Science, Carnegie Mellon University , 5000 Forbes Ave., Pittsburgh, PA 15213 ,","place":["USA"]},{"name":"Delphi Research Group, Carnegie Mellon University , 5000 Forbes Ave., Pittsburgh, PA 15213 ,","place":["USA"]},{"name":"Machine Learning Department, Carnegie Mellon University , 5000 Forbes Ave., Pittsburgh, PA 15213 ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,25]]},"reference":[{"issue":"6","key":"2025071319530979200_qkae110-B1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2567","DOI":"10.3982\/ECTA18597","article-title":"Robust empirical Bayes confidence intervals","volume":"90","author":"Armstrong","year":"2022","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"issue":"48","key":"2025071319530979200_qkae110-B2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"30547","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2013182117","article-title":"The impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on the future dynamics of endemic infections","volume":"117","author":"Baker","year":"2020","journal-title":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America"},{"issue":"4","key":"2025071319530979200_qkae110-B3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"601","DOI":"10.1093\/jrsssa\/qnad030","article-title":"Semi-mechanistic Bayesian modelling of Covid-19 with renewal processes","volume":"186","author":"Bhatt","year":"2023","journal-title":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society"},{"issue":"4","key":"2025071319530979200_qkae110-B4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"645","DOI":"10.1093\/jrsssa\/qnad054","article-title":"Contribution to the discussion of \u201cthe second discussion meeting on statistical aspects of the Covid-19 pandemic\u201d","volume":"186","author":"Bong","year":"2023","journal-title":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society"},{"issue":"4","key":"2025071319530979200_qkae110-B5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2458","DOI":"10.1214\/22-AOAS1599","article-title":"Causal inference for the effect of mobility on COVID-19 deaths","volume":"16","author":"Bonvini","year":"2022","journal-title":"The Annals of Applied Statistics"},{"key":"2025071319530979200_qkae110-B6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"100367","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2019.100367","article-title":"Contemporary statistical inference for infectious disease models using Stan","volume":"29","author":"Chatzilena","year":"2019","journal-title":"Epidemics"},{"issue":"4","key":"2025071319530979200_qkae110-B7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1530","DOI":"10.1111\/biom.v78.4","article-title":"A linear noise approximation for stochastic epidemic models fit to partially observed incidence counts","volume":"78","author":"Fintzi","year":"2022","journal-title":"Biometrics"},{"issue":"4","key":"2025071319530979200_qkae110-B8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1519","DOI":"10.3982\/ECTA16773","article-title":"Robust Bayesian inference for set-identified models","volume":"89","author":"Giacomini","year":"2021","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"issue":"1","key":"2025071319530979200_qkae110-B9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-022-09942-y","article-title":"Evaluating efficacy of indoor non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 outbreaks with a coupled spatial-sir agent-based simulation framework","volume":"12","author":"Gunaratne","year":"2022","journal-title":"Scientific Reports"},{"key":"2025071319530979200_qkae110-B10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1201\/b18308","volume-title":"Bayesian inference for partially identified models: Exploring the limits of limited data","author":"Gustafson","year":"2015"},{"key":"2025071319530979200_qkae110-B11","author":"James","year":"1960"},{"key":"2025071319530979200_qkae110-B12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"700","DOI":"10.1098\/rspa.1927.0118","article-title":"A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics","volume":"115","author":"Kermack","year":"1927","journal-title":"Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Containing Papers of a Mathematical and Physical Character"},{"issue":"1","key":"2025071319530979200_qkae110-B13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1833","DOI":"10.1080\/1331677X.2021.1925573","article-title":"Spatio-temporal influence of non-pharmaceutical interventions policies on pandemic dynamics and the economy: The case of COVID-19","volume":"35","author":"Lazebnik","year":"2022","journal-title":"Economic Research-Ekonomska Istra\u017eivanja"},{"issue":"8","key":"2025071319530979200_qkae110-B14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"211065","DOI":"10.1098\/rsos.211065","article-title":"Efficient Bayesian inference of fully stochastic epidemiological models with applications to COVID-19","volume":"8","author":"Li","year":"2021","journal-title":"Royal Society Open Science"},{"issue":"2","key":"2025071319530979200_qkae110-B15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"taaa021","DOI":"10.1093\/jtm\/taaa021","article-title":"The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus","volume":"27","author":"Liu","year":"2020","journal-title":"Journal of Travel Medicine"},{"issue":"3","key":"2025071319530979200_qkae110-B16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"703","DOI":"10.2307\/1913610","article-title":"A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix","volume":"55","author":"Newey","year":"1987","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"key":"2025071319530979200_qkae110-B17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.physrep.2021.02.001","article-title":"Non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: A review","volume":"913","author":"Perra","year":"2021","journal-title":"Physics Reports"},{"key":"2025071319530979200_qkae110-B18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-662-03486-6","volume-title":"Dynamic nonlinear econometric models: Asymptotic theory","author":"P\u00f6tscher","year":"1997"},{"key":"2025071319530979200_qkae110-B19","first-page":"409","volume-title":"Proceedings of the Thirteenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence","author":"Robins","year":"1997"},{"key":"2025071319530979200_qkae110-B20","volume-title":"Asymptotic statistics","author":"van der Vaart","year":"2000"},{"issue":"1","key":"2025071319530979200_qkae110-B21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"012009","DOI":"10.1088\/1742-6596\/1797\/1\/012009","article-title":"Mathematical models for predicting Covid-19 pandemic: A review","volume":"1797","author":"Vytla","year":"2021","journal-title":"Journal of Physics: Conference Series"}],"container-title":["Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jrsssb\/article-pdf\/87\/3\/701\/60808052\/qkae110.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jrsssb\/article-pdf\/87\/3\/701\/60808052\/qkae110.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,13]],"date-time":"2025-07-13T23:53:15Z","timestamp":1752450795000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jrsssb\/article\/87\/3\/701\/7908180"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,25]]},"references-count":21,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,25]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,14]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/jrsssb\/qkae110","relation":{},"ISSN":["1369-7412","1467-9868"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1369-7412","type":"print"},{"value":"1467-9868","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published-other":{"date-parts":[[2025,7]]},"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,25]]}}}