{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,1]],"date-time":"2026-10-01T10:53:55Z","timestamp":1790852035701,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":45,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,2]],"date-time":"2024-05-02T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1714608000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":1,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004844","name":"National Cheng Kung University Hospital","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NCKUH-11303004"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NCKUH-11303004"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004844","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Dengue is a significant mosquito-borne disease. Several studies have utilized estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study to assess the global, regional or national burden of dengue over time. However, our recent investigation suggests that GBD\u2019s estimates for dengue cases in Taiwan are unrealistically high. The current study extends the scope to compare reported dengue cases with GBD estimates across 30 high-burden countries and territories, aiming to assess the accuracy and interpretability of the GBD\u2019s dengue estimates.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Data for this study were sourced from the GBD 2019 study and various national and international databases documenting reported dengue cases. The analysis targeted the top 30 countries and territories with the highest 10-year average of reported cases from 2010 to 2019. Discrepancies were quantified by computing absolute differences and ratios between the 10-year average of reported cases and GBD estimates. Coefficients of variation (CV) and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to assess variations and trends in the two data sources.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Significant discrepancies were noted between reported data and GBD estimates in the number of dengue cases, incidence rates, and EAPCs. GBD estimates were substantially higher than reported cases for many entities, with the most notable differences found in China (570.0-fold), India (303.0-fold), Bangladesh (115.4-fold), Taiwan (85.5-fold) and Indonesia (23.2-fold). Furthermore, the GBD\u2019s estimates did not accurately reflect the extensive yearly fluctuations in dengue outbreaks, particularly in non-endemic regions such as Taiwan, China and Argentina, as evidenced by high CVs.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>This study reveals substantial discrepancies between GBD estimates and reported dengue cases, underscoring the imperative for comprehensive analysis in areas with pronounced disparities. The failure of GBD estimates to represent the considerable annual fluctuations in dengue outbreaks highlights the critical need for improvement in disease burden estimation methodologies for dengue.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/jtm\/taae069","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,30]],"date-time":"2024-04-30T20:32:41Z","timestamp":1714509161000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":29,"title":["Discrepancies in dengue burden estimates: a comparative analysis of reported cases and global burden of disease study, 2010\u20132019"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"31","author":[{"given":"Sin Yee","family":"Lee","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health , College of Medicine, , No. 1, University Road, Tainan 701 , Taiwan"},{"name":"National Cheng Kung University , College of Medicine, , No. 1, University Road, Tainan 701 , Taiwan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hsin-I","family":"Shih","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Emergency Medicine, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University , No. 138, Sheng Li Road, Tainan 704 , Taiwan"},{"name":"School of Medicine , College of Medicine, , No. 1, University Road, Tainan 701 , Taiwan"},{"name":"National Cheng Kung University , College of Medicine, , No. 1, University Road, Tainan 701 , Taiwan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wei-Cheng","family":"Lo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Master Program in Applied Epidemiology , College of Public Health, , No. 301, Yuantong Road, Zhonghe District, New Taipei City 235 , Taiwan"},{"name":"Taipei Medical University , College of Public Health, , No. 301, Yuantong Road, Zhonghe District, New Taipei City 235 , Taiwan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tsung-Hsueh","family":"Lu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health , College of Medicine, , No. 1, University Road, Tainan 701 , Taiwan"},{"name":"National Cheng Kung University , College of Medicine, , No. 1, University Road, Tainan 701 , Taiwan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yu-Wen","family":"Chien","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health , College of Medicine, , No. 1, University Road, Tainan 701 , Taiwan"},{"name":"National Cheng Kung University , College of Medicine, , No. 1, University Road, Tainan 701 , Taiwan"},{"name":"Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University , No. 138, Sheng Li Road, Tainan 704 , Taiwan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,2]]},"reference":[{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"350","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(18)32560-1","article-title":"Dengue","volume":"393","author":"Wilder-Smith","year":"2019","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref2","article-title":"Dengue and Severe Dengue","volume-title":"Fact sheet","author":"World Health Organization (WHO)"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"504","DOI":"10.1038\/nature12060","article-title":"The global distribution and burden of dengue","volume":"496","author":"Bhatt","year":"2013","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref4","first-page":"299","article-title":"Epidemiology of dengue: past, present and future prospects","volume":"5","author":"Murray","year":"2013","journal-title":"Clin Epidemiol"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref5","article-title":"Vector-borne diseases","author":"World Health Organization","journal-title":"Fact Sheet"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"712","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(16)00026-8","article-title":"The global burden of dengue: an analysis from the global burden of disease study 2013","volume":"16","author":"Stanaway","year":"2016","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"77","DOI":"10.1186\/s13690-020-00458-3","article-title":"History of global burden of disease assessment at the World Health Organization","volume":"78","author":"Mathers","year":"2020","journal-title":"Arch Public Health"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"421","DOI":"10.1038\/545421a","article-title":"In retrospect: global health estimated over two decades","volume":"545","author":"Byass","year":"2017","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1290370","DOI":"10.1080\/16549716.2017.1290370","article-title":"Global estimates of country health indicators: useful, unnecessary, inevitable?","volume":"10","author":"AbouZahr","year":"2017","journal-title":"Glob Health Action"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1625","DOI":"10.1007\/s40121-021-00470-2","article-title":"The global trends and regional differences in incidence of dengue infection from 1990 to 2019: an analysis from the global burden of disease study 2019","volume":"10","author":"Du","year":"2021","journal-title":"Infect Dis Ther"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2020.100712","article-title":"Global, regional, and national dengue burden from 1990 to 2017: a systematic analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2017","volume":"32","author":"Zeng","year":"2021","journal-title":"EClinicalMedicine"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"taab146","DOI":"10.1093\/jtm\/taab146","article-title":"Global burden for dengue and the evolving pattern in the past 30 years","volume":"28","author":"Yang","year":"2021","journal-title":"J Travel Med"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0292723","article-title":"Burden of dengue, leishmaniasis and lymphatic filariasis in India and its states from 1990-2019: analysis from the global burden of disease study (gbd 2019)","volume":"18","author":"Dutta","year":"2023","journal-title":"PloS One"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0006559","article-title":"The burden of neglected tropical diseases in Brazil, 1990-2016: a subnational analysis from the global burden of disease study 2016","volume":"12","author":"Martins-Melo","year":"2018","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"taac031","DOI":"10.1093\/jtm\/taac031","article-title":"Global burden and trends of neglected tropical diseases from 1990 to 2019","volume":"29","author":"Lin","year":"2022","journal-title":"J Travel Med"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"taae009","DOI":"10.1093\/jtm\/taae009","article-title":"Substantial discrepancies in dengue case estimates between the global burden of disease study and Taiwan centers for disease control","volume":"31","author":"Lee","year":"2024","journal-title":"J Travel Med"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1204","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30925-9","article-title":"Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019","volume":"396","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref18","article-title":"PLISA health information platform for the Americas - dengue cases","author":"Pan American Health Organization"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref19","article-title":"Dengue explorer","author":"World Health Organization","year":"2017"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref20","volume-title":"Taiwan National Infectious Disease Statistics System","author":"Taiwan Centers for Disease Control"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"674","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhep.2018.12.001","article-title":"The trends in incidence of primary liver cancer caused by specific etiologies: results from the global burden of disease study 2016 and implications for liver cancer prevention","volume":"70","author":"Liu","year":"2019","journal-title":"J Hepatol"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref22","volume-title":"Department of Economic and Social Affairs","author":"United Nations","year":"2022"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2855","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph18062855","article-title":"Spatial dynamics of dengue fever in mainland China, 2019","volume":"18","author":"Yue","year":"2021","journal-title":"Int J Environ Res Public Health"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e988","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214-109X(19)30249-9","article-title":"Estimating the dengue burden in India","volume":"7","author":"Wilder-Smith","year":"2019","journal-title":"Lancet Glob Health"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1065","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214-109X(19)30250-5","article-title":"Burden of dengue infection in India, 2017: a cross-sectional population based serosurvey","volume":"7","author":"Murhekar","year":"2019","journal-title":"Lancet Glob Health"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0011400","article-title":"Singapore\u2019s 5 decades of dengue prevention and control\u2014implications for global dengue control","volume":"17","author":"Ho","year":"2023","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref27","volume-title":"Dengue: guidelines for diagnosis, treatment, prevention and control","author":"World Health Organization","year":"2009","edition":"new"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2649","DOI":"10.1111\/trf.14281","article-title":"High estimated prevalence of asymptomatic dengue viremia in blood donors during a dengue epidemic in southern Taiwan, 2015","volume":"57","author":"Chien","year":"2017","journal-title":"Transfusion"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref29","first-page":"44","article-title":"Re-emergence of dengue in Argentina : historical development and future challenges","volume":"32","author":"Masuh","year":"2008","journal-title":"Dengue Bull"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"taae015","DOI":"10.1093\/jtm\/taae015","article-title":"Unprecedented dengue outbreak in Taiwan following COVID-19","volume":"31","author":"Chiu","year":"2024","journal-title":"J Travel Med"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1081","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1407.071412","article-title":"Seasonality, annual trends, and characteristics of dengue among ill returned travelers, 1997-2006","volume":"14","author":"Schwartz","year":"2008","journal-title":"Emerg Infect Dis"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"taae022","DOI":"10.1093\/jtm\/taae022","article-title":"Seroprevalence of dengue, Japanese encephalitis and Zika among long-term expatriates in Thailand","volume":"31","author":"Kitro","year":"2024","journal-title":"J Travel Med"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"taac139","DOI":"10.1093\/jtm\/taac139","article-title":"Dengue outbreak amongst travellers returning from Cuba\u2014GeoSentinel surveillance network, January\u2013September 2022","volume":"30","author":"D\u00edaz-Men\u00e9ndez","year":"2023","journal-title":"J Travel Med"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"taaa222","DOI":"10.1093\/jtm\/taaa222","article-title":"Dengue, chikungunya and Zika in GeoSentinel surveillance of international travellers: a literature review from 1995 to 2020","volume":"27","author":"Osman","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Travel Med"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"460","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pt.2013.07.003","article-title":"The invasive mosquito species Aedes albopictus: current knowledge and future perspectives","volume":"29","author":"Bonizzoni","year":"2013","journal-title":"Trends Parasitol"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"taae014","DOI":"10.1093\/jtm\/taae014","article-title":"The epidemiology of imported and locally acquired dengue in Australia, 2012\u20132022","volume":"31","author":"Sohail","year":"2024","journal-title":"J Travel Med"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20718","DOI":"10.2807\/1560-7917.ES2014.19.8.20718","article-title":"The 2012 dengue outbreak in Madeira: exploring the origins","volume":"19","author":"Wilder-Smith","year":"2014","journal-title":"Euro Surveill"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"taad127","DOI":"10.1093\/jtm\/taad127","article-title":"Epidemiology and burden of dengue fever in the United States: a systematic review","volume":"30","author":"Chen","year":"2023","journal-title":"J Travel Med"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2200818","DOI":"10.2807\/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.44.2200818","article-title":"Autochthonous dengue in mainland France, 2022: geographical extension and incidence increase","volume":"27","author":"Cochet","year":"2022","journal-title":"Euro Surveill"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2209","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(14)62421-1","article-title":"A comparison of maternal mortality estimates from GBD 2013 and WHO","volume":"384","author":"Kassebaum","year":"2014","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2461","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(15)61132-1","article-title":"Causes of child death: comparison of MCEE and GBD 2013 estimates","volume":"385","author":"Liu","year":"2015","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1549","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyy144","article-title":"What is the true tuberculosis mortality burden? Differences in estimates by the world health organization and the global burden of disease study","volume":"47","author":"Garc\u00eda-Basteiro","year":"2018","journal-title":"Int J Epidemiol"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"219","DOI":"10.1111\/tmi.12020","article-title":"Malaria mortality estimates: need for agreeable approach","volume":"18","author":"Ye","year":"2013","journal-title":"Trop Med Int Health"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"718","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwaa196","article-title":"Global seasonal influenza mortality estimates: a comparison of 3 different approaches","volume":"190","author":"Cozza","year":"2021","journal-title":"Am J Epidemiol"},{"key":"2024060421130990200_ref45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"560","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyaa253","article-title":"The global burden of chronic hepatitis b virus infection: comparison of country-level prevalence estimates from four research groups","volume":"50","author":"Schmit","year":"2021","journal-title":"Int J Epidemiol"}],"container-title":["Journal of Travel Medicine"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jtm\/advance-article-pdf\/doi\/10.1093\/jtm\/taae069\/57906130\/taae069.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"am","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jtm\/article-pdf\/31\/4\/taae069\/58063838\/taae069.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jtm\/article-pdf\/31\/4\/taae069\/58063838\/taae069.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,5]],"date-time":"2024-06-05T01:28:02Z","timestamp":1717550882000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jtm\/article\/doi\/10.1093\/jtm\/taae069\/7662918"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,5]]},"references-count":45,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,2]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,3]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/jtm\/taae069","relation":{},"ISSN":["1195-1982","1708-8305"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1195-1982","type":"print"},{"value":"1708-8305","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published-other":{"date-parts":[[2024,5]]},"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,5]]},"article-number":"taae069"}}