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Here, we introduce a novel principle-based framework for predicting global warming from climate mean states that is based solely on carbon-dioxide-increasing scenarios without running climate models and relying on statistical trend analysis. By applying this framework to the climate mean state of 1980\u20132000, we accurately capture the subsequent global warming (0.403\u00a0K predicted versus 0.414\u00a0K observed) and polar warming amplification patterns. Our predictions from climate mean states of individual models not only exhibit a high map-correlation skill that is comparable to that of individual Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models for the observed warming, but also capture the temporal pace of their warming under the 1% annual CO2-increasing scenario. This work provides the first principle-based confirmation that anthropogenic greenhouse gases are the primary cause of the observed global warming from 1980\u20132000 to 2000\u20132020, independently of climate models and statistical analysis.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1093\/nsr\/nwae442","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,29]],"date-time":"2024-11-29T15:28:38Z","timestamp":1732894118000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Principle-based adept predictions of global warming from climate mean states"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1614-1102","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ming","family":"Cai","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmosphere Science, Florida State University , Tallahassee, FL 32306 ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1001-6191","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Xiaoming","family":"Hu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) , Zhuhai 519082 ,","place":["China"]},{"name":"Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies, Sun Yat-sen University , Zhuhai 519082 ,","place":["China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8138-8224","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jie","family":"Sun","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmosphere Science, Florida State University , Tallahassee, FL 32306 ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yongyun","family":"Hu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Peking University , Beijing 100871 ,","place":["China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Guosheng","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmosphere Science, Florida State University , Tallahassee, FL 32306 ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhaohua","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmosphere Science, Florida State University , Tallahassee, FL 32306 ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7758-4110","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Feng","family":"Ding","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Peking University , Beijing 100871 ,","place":["China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4615-3702","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Wanying","family":"Kang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology , Boston, MA 02139 ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,30]]},"reference":[{"key":"2025040405483851500_bib1","first-page":"553","volume-title":"Future Global Climate: Scenario-based Projections and Near-term Information. 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