{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,2]],"date-time":"2025-08-02T16:33:00Z","timestamp":1754152380260,"version":"3.41.2"},"reference-count":23,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,6]],"date-time":"2025-02-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1738800000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/pages\/standard-publication-reuse-rights"}],"funder":[{"name":"Tobacco-Free Kids Action Fund","award":["CHINA-33-04"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CHINA-33-04"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,22]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Introduction<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Despite the Chinese government\u2019s implementation of tax increases in 2009 and 2015 to curb tobacco use, the anticipated decline in cigarette sales has not materialized. This suggests a need for a deeper understanding of smokers\u2019 demand behavior. The present study aims to provide a more accurate estimation of the price and income elasticities of cigarettes in China.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>We utilized Deaton\u2019s model to analyze a comprehensive micro-level dataset comprising 10\u2005892 households surveyed in the 2012 wave of the China Family Panel Survey, with the aim of estimating the price and income elasticities of cigarette demand, as well as to investigate how these elasticities vary across different income brackets. These resulting elasticities were subsequently integrated into the World Health Organization Tax Simulation Model to simulate the potential impacts of various tax increase scenarios on cigarette consumption and tax revenue.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>The price elasticity in China hovers around \u22120.72, with an income elasticity of about 0.23. Heterogeneity analysis indicated that lower-income smokers exhibit greater sensitivity to price changes. Policy simulations suggested that tax increases would substantially reduce consumption while concurrently increasing tax revenue.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Chinese smokers exhibited a considerable sensitivity to cigarette prices, underscoring the efficacy of taxation as a policy instrument for shaping smoking behavior. As tax reforms continue and cigarette retail prices increase, there lies promising potential for achieving tobacco control goals, generating additional revenue, and improving social equality.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Implications<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>A primary contribution of this study is the provision of a more reliable estimation of cigarette price and income elasticities in China. These parameters are crucial for assessing the potential impact of tobacco tax increases on cigarette consumption and government revenue. By leveraging a nationally representative survey from 2012 and employing Deaton\u2019s identification strategy, we significantly enhanced the data quality and methodological rigor of our analysis, leading to more accurate estimation results compared to previous studies.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/ntr\/ntaf020","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,4]],"date-time":"2025-02-04T23:20:56Z","timestamp":1738711256000},"page":"1385-1391","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["How Do Chinese Smokers Respond to Cigarette Price? Evidence From a Nationwide Household Survey"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"27","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0005-7769-5052","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Aduqinfu","family":"He","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"WHO Collaborating Center on Health Tax and Fiscal Policy, University of International Business and Economics , Beijing ,","place":["China"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0007-8142-5471","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Zeyu","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Economics, School of Social Sciences, Tsinghua University , Beijing ,","place":["China"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5870-6821","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Rong","family":"Zheng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"WHO Collaborating Center on Health Tax and Fiscal Policy, University of International Business and Economics , Beijing ,","place":["China"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,6]]},"reference":[{"year":"2020","author":"Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention","key":"2025072201514245400_CIT0001"},{"author":"Cigarettes sales volume before 2020 is sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics of China","key":"2025072201514245400_CIT0002"},{"key":"2025072201514245400_CIT0003","article-title":"2022 tobacco industry achieves record-high total tax revenue and fiscal contribution [online]","author":"Bi","year":"2023","journal-title":"East Tobacco"},{"key":"2025072201514245400_CIT0004"},{"year":"2024","author":"Xi","key":"2025072201514245400_CIT0005"},{"volume-title":"The WHO tobacco tax simulation model: WHO TaXSiM user guide","author":"World Health Organization","key":"2025072201514245400_CIT0006"},{"issue":"1","key":"2025072201514245400_CIT0007","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"173","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhealeco.2003.09.004","article-title":"Is cigarette smoking in poorer nations highly sensitive to price? Evidence from Russia and China","volume":"23","author":"Lance","year":"2004","journal-title":"J Health Econ."},{"issue":"10","key":"2025072201514245400_CIT0008","first-page":"98","article-title":"Tobacco tax and its influence in China: an empirical study based on rational addiction model","volume":"33","author":"Gao","year":"2010","journal-title":"J World Econ."},{"key":"2025072201514245400_CIT0009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"iii76","DOI":"10.1136\/tobaccocontrol-2014-052091","article-title":"Differential responsiveness to cigarette price by education and income among adult urban Chinese smokers: findings from the ITC China Survey","volume":"24","author":"Huang","year":"2015","journal-title":"Tob Control."},{"issue":"2","key":"2025072201514245400_CIT0010","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"151","DOI":"10.1007\/s10198-009-0157-2","article-title":"Interactions between cigarette and alcohol consumption in rural China","volume":"11","author":"Yu","year":"2010","journal-title":"Eur J Health Econ."},{"issue":"2","key":"2025072201514245400_CIT0011","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"113","DOI":"10.1016\/j.chieco.2006.12.001","article-title":"Are Chinese smokers sensitive to price","volume":"18","author":"Bishop","year":"2007","journal-title":"China Econ Rev."},{"issue":"10","key":"2025072201514245400_CIT0012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1314","DOI":"10.1002\/hec.3084","article-title":"How do smokers respond to cigarette taxes? Evidence from China\u2019s cigarette industry","volume":"24","author":"Liu","year":"2014","journal-title":"Health Econ."},{"issue":"04","key":"2025072201514245400_CIT0013","first-page":"291","article-title":"Demand and different income groups for cigarettes and impact of increasing tax on smokers","volume":"5","author":"Mao","year":"2005","journal-title":"Chin. J. Evid.-Based Med"},{"issue":"2","key":"2025072201514245400_CIT0014","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"221","DOI":"10.1016\/j.chieco.2011.01.004","article-title":"Quantity, quality, and regional price variation of cigarettes: demand analysis based on a household survey in China","volume":"22","author":"Chen","year":"2011","journal-title":"China Econ Rev."},{"issue":"1-2","key":"2025072201514245400_CIT0015","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"7","DOI":"10.1016\/0304-4076(87)90041-8","article-title":"Estimation of own-and cross-price elasticities from household survey data","volume":"36","author":"Deaton","year":"1987","journal-title":"J Econometrics."},{"key":"2025072201514245400_CIT0016","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"s293","DOI":"10.1136\/tobaccocontrol-2019-055197","article-title":"Accelerating progress on effective tobacco tax policies in Montenegro","volume":"29","author":"Mugosa","year":"2020","journal-title":"Tob Control."},{"key":"2025072201514245400_CIT0017","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"s331","DOI":"10.1136\/tobaccocontrol-2019-055262","article-title":"Tobacco price elasticity in Serbia: evidence from a middle-income country with high prevalence and low tobacco prices","volume":"29","author":"Vladisavljevic","year":"2020","journal-title":"Tob Control."},{"author":"The data comes from the website of China Family Panel Studies","key":"2025072201514245400_CIT0018"},{"issue":"6","key":"2025072201514245400_CIT0019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"756","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ypmed.2004.09.022","article-title":"Inequalities in the prevalence of smoking in the European Union: comparing education and income","volume":"40","author":"Huisman","year":"2005","journal-title":"Prev Med."},{"issue":"7","key":"2025072201514245400_CIT0020","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"506","DOI":"10.2471\/BLT.17.205989","article-title":"Early assessment of China\u2019s 2015 tobacco tax increase","volume":"96","author":"Goodchild","year":"2018","journal-title":"Bull World Health Organ."},{"issue":"05","key":"2025072201514245400_CIT0021","first-page":"108","article-title":"Relationship between cigarette elasticity and cigarette demand","volume":"34","author":"Yang","year":"2018","journal-title":"Tax Res."},{"issue":"5","key":"2025072201514245400_CIT0022","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"800","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amepre.2015.04.026","article-title":"Community preventive services task force. economic impact of tobacco price increases through taxation: a community guide systematic review","volume":"49","author":"Contreary","year":"2015","journal-title":"Am J Prev Med."},{"issue":"12","key":"2025072201514245400_CIT0023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0200665","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0200665","article-title":"The association between cigarette affordability and consumption: an update","volume":"13","author":"He","year":"2018","journal-title":"PLoS One."}],"container-title":["Nicotine and Tobacco Research"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/ntr\/advance-article-pdf\/doi\/10.1093\/ntr\/ntaf020\/61775961\/ntaf020.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"am","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/ntr\/article-pdf\/27\/8\/1385\/61775961\/ntaf020.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/ntr\/article-pdf\/27\/8\/1385\/61775961\/ntaf020.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,22]],"date-time":"2025-07-22T05:51:48Z","timestamp":1753163508000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/ntr\/article\/27\/8\/1385\/8003327"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,6]]},"references-count":23,"journal-issue":{"issue":"8","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,6]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,22]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/ntr\/ntaf020","relation":{},"ISSN":["1469-994X"],"issn-type":[{"type":"electronic","value":"1469-994X"}],"subject":[],"published-other":{"date-parts":[[2025,8]]},"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,6]]}}}