{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,12]],"date-time":"2026-08-12T18:31:15Z","timestamp":1786559475472,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":33,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,8]],"date-time":"2026-07-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1783468800000},"content-version":"am","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000054","name":"National Cancer Institute","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["K01CA242530"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["K01CA242530"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000054","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Introduction<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The Food and Drug Administration proposed a rule to ban the sale of menthol cigarettes, but recently withdrew the proposal. This study uses simulation modeling to estimate the impact of a national menthol cigarette ban on tobacco use, life expectancy, and lung cancer.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We used the Tobacco Use Individual-level Simulation and Tracking Model, a validated microsimulation model of tobacco use in the US adult population. The simulated population and model parameter estimates are primarily informed by data from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study. We used findings from a published meta-analysis to inform estimates of the impact of a menthol ban on tobacco use in the model.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Ten years after a menthol ban, the model projects a 38.5% reduction in tobacco use prevalence among adults. Declines are even greater in the non-Hispanic Black population (70.4% reduction) and among individuals living in poverty (46.0% reduction). Among a cohort of adults, individual life expectancy is projected to increase by 73\u00a0days, on average. Among the non-Hispanic Black population and individuals living in poverty, life expectancy will increase by 193 and 183\u00a0days, respectively. In the cohort, 1-year incidence of lung cancer is estimated to decline by 14.4% in the general population, 32.4% among non-Hispanic Black adults, and 22.1% among individuals living in poverty.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A menthol ban would reduce tobacco use and lung cancer rates, while increasing life expectancy. The greatest benefits are expected among non-Hispanic Black individuals and people living in poverty.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Implications<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Findings from this study suggest that a national ban on the sale of menthol cigarettes in the United States would reduce tobacco use and lung cancer incidence rates, while increasing overall life expectancy. The greatest public health benefits are expected among non-Hispanic Black individuals and people living in poverty, two priority populations for tobacco control.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/ntr\/ntag157","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,8]],"date-time":"2026-07-08T11:52:38Z","timestamp":1783511558000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["The impact of a menthol cigarette ban on tobacco use, lung cancer, and life expectancy"],"prefix":"10.1093","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0183-6753","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sarah D","family":"Mills","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Health Behavior, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina , Chapel Hill, NC 27599 ,","place":["United States"]},{"name":"Lineberger Comprehensive Cancer Center, University of North Carolina , Chapel Hill, NC 27599 ,","place":["United States"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nicholas","family":"Tapp-Hughes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Computer Science, University of North Carolina , Chapel Hill, NC 27599 ,","place":["United States"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yu","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina , Chapel Hill, NC 27599 ,","place":["United States"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kurt M","family":"Ribisl","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Health Behavior, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina , Chapel Hill, NC 27599 ,","place":["United States"]},{"name":"Lineberger Comprehensive Cancer Center, University of North Carolina , Chapel Hill, NC 27599 ,","place":["United States"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Christopher A","family":"Wiesen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Odum Institute, University of North Carolina , Chapel Hill, NC 27599 ,","place":["United States"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kristen","family":"Hassmiller Lich","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Health Policy and Management, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina , Chapel Hill, NC 27599 ,","place":["United States"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"2026081214014798400_ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ntr\/ntac214","article-title":"Menthol cigarette use among adults who smoke cigarettes, 2008 to 2020: Rapid growth and widening inequities in the United 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