{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,30]],"date-time":"2026-07-30T10:00:50Z","timestamp":1785405650036,"version":"3.56.0"},"reference-count":38,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,17]],"date-time":"2026-07-17T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1784246400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":16,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Science and Technology Innovation Team","award":["2022TSYCTD0013"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2022TSYCTD0013"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004880","name":"Xinjiang Medical University","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["XYD2024C04"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["XYD2024C04"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004880","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100005622","name":"Health Research","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100005622","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Persistent infection with 9-valent human papillomavirus (9v-HPV) is a major risk factor for HPV-related cancers among men who have sex with men (MSM). This study aimed to develop a dynamic prediction model to assess whether longitudinal sexual-behavior-related and exposure-related indicators could predict persistent 9vHPV infection among human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-negative MSM.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Method<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Between 2016 and 2023, HIV-negative MSM in Urumqi, China, were followed every 6 months. Baseline questionnaires and anal swabs were collected, and HPV genotyping was performed using an assay detecting 37 HPV genotypes. The primary outcome was persistent infection with 1 or more of the 9 genotypes covered by the 9-valent HPV vaccine. Persistent 9vHPV infection was defined as detection of at least one of these 9 genotypes on 2 or more consecutive visits after a negative baseline. Key indicators included same-sex partner number, anal intercourse frequency, condom use, commercial sex, club drug use, partner-seeking venues, and sexual role. A Bayesian joint model integrating longitudinal sexual-behavior-related indicators and time-to-event outcomes was developed. Predictive accuracy was assessed using the time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) with internal validation.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Among 704 MSM, factors including employment, commercial sex, receptive anal intercourse, and versatile roles were associated with increased persistence risk. Higher number of sexual partners (HR = 1.95) and more frequent anal intercourse (HR = 2.04) were strong predictors. The partner-based model demonstrated superior predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.727).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The Bayesian joint model provides accurate dynamic predictions of persistent 9v-HPV infection in MSM, supporting personalized prevention strategies.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/ofid\/ofag432","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,15]],"date-time":"2026-07-15T11:51:45Z","timestamp":1784116305000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["A Dynamic Prediction Study of Persistent Nine-valent Human Papillomavirus Infection Among HIV-negative Men Who Have Sex With Men in Urumqi, China: a Longitudinal and Time-to-event-based Joint Model"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"Guozhen","family":"Zhang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health, Xinjiang Medical University , Xinjiang ,","place":["China"]},{"name":"The Key Laboratory of Special Environment and Health Research in Xinjiang Department of Public Health, , Urumqi ,","place":["China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Juyuan","family":"Bian","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health, Xinjiang Medical University , Xinjiang ,","place":["China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Heng","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health, Xinjiang Medical University , Xinjiang ,","place":["China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wenjie","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health, Xinjiang Medical University , Xinjiang 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