{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,30]],"date-time":"2026-09-30T06:21:34Z","timestamp":1790749294158,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":43,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,4]],"date-time":"2023-05-04T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1683158400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":3,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["82003509"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["82003509"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["82173577"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["82173577"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["81672005"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["81672005"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004731","name":"Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["LQ20H260009"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["LQ20H260009"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004731","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,2]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:p>The coexistence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and seasonal influenza epidemics has become a potential threat to human health, particularly in China in the oncoming season. However, with the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic, the rebound extent of the influenza activities is still poorly understood. In this study, we constructed a susceptible\u2013vaccinated\u2013infectious\u2013recovered\u2013susceptible (SVIRS) model to simulate influenza transmission and calibrated it using influenza surveillance data from 2018 to 2022. We projected the influenza transmission over the next 3 years using the SVIRS model. We observed that, in epidemiological year 2021\u20132022, the reproduction numbers of influenza in southern and northern China were reduced by 64.0 and 34.5%, respectively, compared with those before the pandemic. The percentage of people susceptible to influenza virus increased by 138.6 and 57.3% in southern and northern China by October 1, 2022, respectively. After relaxing NPIs, the potential accumulation of susceptibility to influenza infection may lead to a large-scale influenza outbreak in the year 2022\u20132023, the scale of which may be affected by the intensity of the NPIs. And later relaxation of NPIs in the year 2023 would not lead to much larger rebound of influenza activities in the year 2023\u20132024. To control the influenza epidemic to the prepandemic level after relaxing NPIs, the influenza vaccination rates in southern and northern China should increase to 53.8 and 33.8%, respectively. Vaccination for influenza should be advocated to reduce the potential reemergence of the influenza epidemic in the next few years.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1093\/pnasnexus\/pgad152","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,4]],"date-time":"2023-05-04T12:40:56Z","timestamp":1683204056000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":30,"title":["Quantifying the rebound of influenza epidemics after the adjustment of zero-COVID policy in China"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"2","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1850-7040","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hao","family":"Lei","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health, Zhejiang University School of Medicine , Hangzhou 310058 , P.R. China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lei","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Key Laboratory for Medical Virology, National Health Commission , Beijing 102206 , P.R. China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mengya","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health, Zhejiang University School of Medicine , Hangzhou 310058 , P.R. China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jing","family":"Tang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Key Laboratory for Medical Virology, National Health Commission , Beijing 102206 , P.R. China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jiaying","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Key Laboratory for Medical Virology, National Health Commission , Beijing 102206 , P.R. China"},{"name":"School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University , Guangzhou 510275 , P.R. China"},{"name":"School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Shenzhen Campus of Sun Yat-sen University , Shenzhen 518107 , P.R. China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Minju","family":"Tan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Key Laboratory for Medical Virology, National Health Commission , Beijing 102206 , P.R. China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shigui","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health, Zhejiang University School of Medicine , Hangzhou 310058 , P.R. China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dayan","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Key Laboratory for Medical Virology, National Health Commission , Beijing 102206 , P.R. China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yuelong","family":"Shu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University , Guangzhou 510275 , P.R. China"},{"name":"School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Shenzhen Campus of Sun Yat-sen University , Shenzhen 518107 , P.R. China"},{"name":"Institute of Pathogen Biology, Chinese Academy of Medical Science & Peking Union Medical College , Beijing 100730 , P.R. China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,4]]},"reference":[{"issue":"8","key":"2023072819100478300_pgad152-B1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"113","DOI":"10.46234\/ccdcw2020.032","article-title":"The epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19)\u2014China, 2020","volume":"2","author":"The Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Emergency Response Epidemiology Team","year":"2020","journal-title":"China CDC Wkly"},{"key":"2023072819100478300_pgad152-B2","author":"World Health Organization","year":"2020"},{"issue":"8","key":"2023072819100478300_pgad152-B3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1933","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2608.201229","article-title":"Decreased influenza incidence under COVID-19 control measures, Singapore","volume":"26","author":"Soo","year":"2020","journal-title":"Emerg Infect 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