{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,23]],"date-time":"2026-07-23T05:38:57Z","timestamp":1784785137772,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":52,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"12","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,10]],"date-time":"2025-12-10T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1765324800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":9,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000203","name":"USGS","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["G18AC00317"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["G18AC00317"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000203","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Response to infectious disease outbreaks and ongoing management actions can vary greatly across geopolitical units. Understanding relationships between management actions of governance systems within social ecological systems (SES) is important when resource units (e.g. wildlife) and users (e.g. humans) inextricably connect them. Surveillance efforts provide critical information to governance systems for diseases such as coronavirus, influenza, and ebola. However, diseases that spread rapidly across multiple SESs are coarsely managed and monitored over weeks, months, or years. Such time and spatial constraints can challenge evaluation of management actions. Assessing importance of disease management across SESs for slow-moving infectious diseases can provide rare insights about management actions. We investigated an exemplary outbreak of Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) in white-tailed deer populations along the geopolitical border of Illinois and Wisconsin, USA. We illustrated challenges of disease management in wildlife populations along geopolitical borders, where differences in management actions of adjacent governance systems were stark and subject to sudden change. Our analysis provided evidence of abrupt change in outbreak progression following drastic changes in management actions. In addition, we showed evidence of inconsistent and highly variable outcomes of management actions along a geopolitical border when adjacent governance systems are unable to cooperatively manage across interconnected SESs. Total annual harvest in a county is a primary management action used to control CWD, where increasing harvest potentially reduces prevalence. We showed that the effects of increasing total county-level harvest on cumulative incidence of CWD were highly heterogeneous. In some counties, increasing harvest had the opposite of the intended effect.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1093\/pnasnexus\/pgaf387","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,10]],"date-time":"2025-12-10T17:51:53Z","timestamp":1765389113000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["A tale of two management programs: Insights from a state-line wildlife disease outbreak"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"4","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5694-8541","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Andrew B","family":"Whetten","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Avian Population Studies, Cornell Lab of Ornithology , 159 Sapsucker Woods Rd, Ithaca, NY 14850 ,","place":["USA"]},{"name":"Department of Statistics, Kansas State University , 1116 Mid-Campus Dr North, Manhattan, KS 66506 ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5850-328X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Trevor J","family":"Hefley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics, Kansas State University , 1116 Mid-Campus Dr North, Manhattan, KS 66506 ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Christopher N","family":"Jacques","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Illinois Department of Natural Resources , 1 Natural Resources Way, Springfield, IL 62702 ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Daniel J","family":"Storm","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources , 101 S Webster St, Madison, WI 53707 ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7772-2445","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Daniel P","family":"Walsh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"U.S. Geological Survey, Montana Cooperative Wildlife Research Unit, Wildlife Biology Program, University of Montana , Missoula, MT 59812 ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,10]]},"reference":[{"issue":"3","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"151","DOI":"10.1080\/10871200600669908","article-title":"Wildlife disease management: a manager\u2019s model","volume":"11","author":"Decker","year":"2006","journal-title":"Hum Dimens Wildl"},{"issue":"6335","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"265","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aal1950","article-title":"Ecosystem management as a wicked problem","volume":"356","author":"DeFries","year":"2017","journal-title":"Science"},{"issue":"1","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1186\/1746-6148-9-223","article-title":"Wildlife health investigations: needs, challenges and recommendations","volume":"9","author":"Ryser-Degiorgis","year":"2013","journal-title":"BMC Vet Res"},{"issue":"6500","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"145","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abc0017","article-title":"Rigorous wildlife disease surveillance","volume":"369","author":"Watsa","year":"2020","journal-title":"Science"},{"issue":"4","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"741","DOI":"10.7589\/2019-08-213","article-title":"Chronic wasting disease modeling: an overview","volume":"56","author":"Winter","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Wildl Dis"},{"issue":"1","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.5751\/ES-01462-110115","article-title":"Toward a network perspective of the study of resilience in social-ecological systems","volume":"11","author":"Janssen","year":"2006","journal-title":"Ecol Soc"},{"issue":"5939","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"419","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1172133","article-title":"A general framework for analyzing sustainability of social-ecological systems","volume":"325","author":"Ostrom","year":"2009","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B8","first-page":"87","article-title":"Wildlife management as a process within a system","author":"Riley","year":"2012","journal-title":"Human Dimensions of Wildlife Management"},{"issue":"5","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5211","DOI":"10.3390\/su7055211","article-title":"The new global urban realm: complex, connected, diffuse, and diverse social-ecological systems","volume":"7","author":"McHale","year":"2015","journal-title":"Sustainability"},{"issue":"2","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"250","DOI":"10.1111\/cobi.13238","article-title":"Conservation geopolitics","volume":"33","author":"Hodgetts","year":"2019","journal-title":"Conserv Biol"},{"issue":"1392","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1951","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.1999.0534","article-title":"Unanswered questions in ecology","volume":"354","author":"May","year":"1999","journal-title":"Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci"},{"key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B12","author":"Khullar"},{"issue":"1","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4392","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-020-18229-7","article-title":"Hunting strategies to increase detection of chronic wasting disease in cervids","volume":"11","author":"Mysterud","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nat Commun"},{"issue":"3","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"180","DOI":"10.1080\/10871201003718029","article-title":"CWD after \u201cthe fire\u201d: six reasons why hunters resisted Wisconsin\u2019s eradication effort","volume":"15","author":"Holsman","year":"2010","journal-title":"Hum Dimens Wildl"},{"key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B15","author":"Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources","year":"2010"},{"key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B16","first-page":"514","volume-title":"Biology and management of white-tailed deer","author":"VerCauteren","year":"2011"},{"issue":"1","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"139","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2013.09.011","article-title":"The importance of localized culling in stabilizing chronic wasting disease prevalence in white-tailed deer populations","volume":"113","author":"Manjerovic","year":"2014","journal-title":"Prev Vet Med"},{"issue":"3","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"125","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jegh.2015.10.002","article-title":"Bradford Hill\u2019s criteria, emerging zoonoses, and one health","volume":"6","author":"Asokan","year":"2016","journal-title":"J Epidemiol Glob Health"},{"key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B19","author":"Hill","year":"1965"},{"issue":"2","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"136","DOI":"10.1038\/s41559-021-01633-7","article-title":"Hunting shapes wildlife disease transmission","volume":"6","author":"Kamath","year":"2022","journal-title":"Nat Ecol Evol"},{"issue":"1","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"67","DOI":"10.1656\/045.019.0105","article-title":"Survival of white-tailed deer in Wisconsin\u2019s chronic wasting disease zone","volume":"19","author":"Magle","year":"2012","journal-title":"Northeast Nat (Steuben)"},{"issue":"6","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1003","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1006.040010","article-title":"Environmental sources of prion transmission in mule deer","volume":"10","author":"Miller","year":"2004","journal-title":"Emerg Infect Dis"},{"issue":"458","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"632","DOI":"10.1198\/016214502760047140","article-title":"Combining incompatible spatial data","volume":"97","author":"Gotway","year":"2002","journal-title":"J Am Stat Assoc"},{"issue":"1","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e3089","DOI":"10.1002\/eap.3089","article-title":"The effectiveness of harvest for limiting wildlife disease: insights from 20 years of chronic wasting disease in Wyoming","volume":"35","author":"Moss","year":"2025","journal-title":"Ecol Appl"},{"key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B25","first-page":"123","article-title":"Chronic wasting disease in cervids: prevalence, impact and management strategies","volume":"10","author":"Rivera","year":"2019","journal-title":"Vet Med (Auckl)"},{"issue":"2","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"221","DOI":"10.1890\/09-0052.1","article-title":"Linking process to pattern: estimating spatiotemporal dynamics of a wildlife epidemic from cross-sectional data","volume":"80","author":"Heisey","year":"2010","journal-title":"Ecol Monogr"},{"issue":"5","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"599","DOI":"10.3201\/eid0905.020721","article-title":"Chronic wasting disease in free-ranging Wisconsin white-tailed deer","volume":"9","author":"Joly","year":"2003","journal-title":"Emerg Infect Dis"},{"issue":"4","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1353","DOI":"10.1002\/pan3.10518","article-title":"Social licence to cull: examining scepticism toward lethal wildlife removal in cities","volume":"5","author":"von Essen","year":"2023","journal-title":"People Nat"},{"issue":"1","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"53","DOI":"10.1080\/13669877.2011.601320","article-title":"Lay people\u2019s and experts\u2019 risk perception and acceptance of vaccination and culling strategies to fight animal epidemics","volume":"15","author":"Zingg","year":"2012","journal-title":"J Risk Res"},{"issue":"1","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"353","DOI":"10.1038\/s42003-020-1032-z","article-title":"A systemic approach to assess the potential and risks of wildlife culling for infectious disease control","volume":"3","author":"Miguel","year":"2020","journal-title":"Commun Biol"},{"issue":"6444","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"943","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aax4310","article-title":"Science-based wildlife disease response","volume":"364","author":"Vicente","year":"2019","journal-title":"Science"},{"issue":"3","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"646","DOI":"10.1644\/13-MAMM-A-167","article-title":"Genetic assignment tests reveal dispersal of white-tailed deer: implications for chronic wasting disease","volume":"95","author":"Green","year":"2014","journal-title":"J Mammal"},{"issue":"4","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"832","DOI":"10.1002\/jwmg.292","article-title":"Population genetic structure of white-tailed deer: understanding risk of chronic wasting disease spread","volume":"76","author":"Lang","year":"2012","journal-title":"J Wildl Manage"},{"issue":"28","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7374","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1801383115","article-title":"Disease outbreak thresholds emerge from interactions between movement behavior, landscape structure, and epidemiology","volume":"115","author":"White","year":"2018","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"issue":"2","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"546","DOI":"10.2193\/0022-541X(2006)70[546:DPAHVO]2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Demographic patterns and harvest vulnerability of chronic wasting disease infected white-tailed deer in Wisconsin","volume":"70","author":"Grear","year":"2006","journal-title":"J Wildl Manage"},{"issue":"10","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1923","DOI":"10.1007\/s10980-013-9919-4","article-title":"Using landscape epidemiological models to understand the distribution of chronic wasting disease in the Midwestern USA","volume":"28","author":"Robinson","year":"2013","journal-title":"Landsc Ecol"},{"issue":"5","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1156","DOI":"10.2193\/2006-469","article-title":"White-tailed deer movements in a chronic wasting disease area in south-central Wisconsin","volume":"72","author":"Skuldt","year":"2008","journal-title":"J Wildl Manage"},{"issue":"5","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"781","DOI":"10.1007\/s10344-012-0624-4","article-title":"Effects of heavy localised culling on population distribution of red deer at a landscape scale: an analytical modelling approach","volume":"58","author":"Putman","year":"2012","journal-title":"Eur J Wildl Res"},{"issue":"4","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1007\/s10344-017-1128-z","article-title":"Applicability of a Bayesian state-space model for evaluating the effects of localized culling on subsequent density changes: sika deer as a case study","volume":"63","author":"Takeshita","year":"2017","journal-title":"Eur J Wildl Res"},{"issue":"4","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"726","DOI":"10.1002\/jwmg.530","article-title":"Achieving landscape-scale deer management for biodiversity conservation: the need to consider sources and sinks","volume":"77","author":"W\u00e4ber","year":"2013","journal-title":"J Wildl Manage"},{"key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B41","author":"Woods","year":"2006"},{"issue":"3","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"181","DOI":"10.1080\/10871200490479963","article-title":"The economic impacts of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in Wisconsin","volume":"9","author":"Bishop","year":"2004","journal-title":"Hum Dimens Wildl"},{"issue":"12","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0278366","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0278366","article-title":"The economic costs of chronic wasting disease in the United States","volume":"17","author":"Chiavacci","year":"2022","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B44","first-page":"67","article-title":"What are hunters willing to pay for chronic wasting disease (CWD) management? A comparison of different contingent valuation approaches","volume":"11","author":"Lerose","year":"2024","journal-title":"J Southeast Assoc Fish Wildl Agencies"},{"issue":"1","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"30","DOI":"10.1002\/fee.2290","article-title":"Addressing data integration challenges to link ecological processes across scales","volume":"19","author":"Zipkin","year":"2021","journal-title":"Front Ecol Environ"},{"issue":"10","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e03238","DOI":"10.1002\/ecs2.3238","article-title":"An introduction to event history analyses for ecologists","volume":"11","author":"Landes","year":"2020","journal-title":"Ecosphere"},{"issue":"1","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"14373","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-024-65002-7","article-title":"Predicting chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer at the county scale using machine learning","volume":"14","author":"Ahmed","year":"2024","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"issue":"3","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"841","DOI":"10.1214\/08-AOAS169","article-title":"Random survival forests","volume":"2","author":"Ishwaran","year":"2008","journal-title":"Ann Appl Stat"},{"issue":"2","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B49","first-page":"85","article-title":"A selective review on random survival forests for high dimensional data","volume":"36","author":"Wang","year":"2017","journal-title":"Quant Biosci"},{"issue":"none","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"44","DOI":"10.1214\/09-SS047","article-title":"A review of survival trees","volume":"5","author":"Bou-Hamad","year":"2011","journal-title":"Statist Surv"},{"issue":"1","key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"77","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.1593","article-title":"Bagging survival trees","volume":"23","author":"Hothorn","year":"2004","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"2026021713270302200_pgaf387-B52","author":"Ishwaran","year":"2024"}],"container-title":["PNAS Nexus"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/pnasnexus\/advance-article-pdf\/doi\/10.1093\/pnasnexus\/pgaf387\/65831406\/pgaf387.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"am","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/pnasnexus\/article-pdf\/4\/12\/pgaf387\/65831406\/pgaf387.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/pnasnexus\/article-pdf\/4\/12\/pgaf387\/65831406\/pgaf387.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,17]],"date-time":"2026-02-17T18:27:14Z","timestamp":1771352834000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/pnasnexus\/article\/doi\/10.1093\/pnasnexus\/pgaf387\/8376782"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Ugo","family":"Arbieu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]},{"given":"David","family":"Brenner","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"editor"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,1]]},"references-count":52,"journal-issue":{"issue":"12","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,1]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/pnasnexus\/pgaf387","relation":{},"ISSN":["2752-6542"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2752-6542","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published-other":{"date-parts":[[2025,12]]},"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,1]]},"article-number":"pgaf387"}}