{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,27]],"date-time":"2026-10-27T16:33:18Z","timestamp":1793118798913,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":79,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,18]],"date-time":"2026-08-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1787011200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":17,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001711","name":"Swiss National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001711","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100010663","name":"European Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100010663","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100005156","name":"Humboldt Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100005156","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Incoherence has long been considered a hallmark of belief in conspiracy theories, though recent research has cast doubt on this claim. We identify theoretical and methodological shortcomings in previous assessments of incoherence and connect this work to current research on reasoning by modeling conspiracism as a set of probabilistic beliefs and computing incoherence as the departure from Bayesian principles of rational belief. In study 1, reanalyzing data from eight studies involving 8,590 participants, we examined the relationship between conspiracism and belief in mutually incompatible conspiracy theories (e.g. Princess Diana \u201cwas murdered\u201d and \u201cfaked her own death\u201d). A robust association with conspiracism emerged, with the strongest conspiracy believers showing a 91% probability of being incoherent. In study 2, a preregistered experiment with 469 participants, we investigated whether incoherence is specific to conspiratorial contents related to a person\u2019s worldview, or reflects a more general tendency toward inconsistency. We manipulated the content domain (conspiracy vs. nonconspiracy) and logical relation (contrary vs. contradictory) of incompatible explanations for fictitious vignettes and collected explicit probability ratings. We found evidence for a two-component effect of incoherence: a general component, associated with reduced logical monitoring, that emerges in contradictory pairs, and a content-specific component, associated with worldview-driven endorsement, that emerges in contrary conspiracy pairs. Together, these findings encourage a move from dichotomous judgments of dis\/belief to a probabilistic modeling of conspiracy beliefs, grounded in a rigorous definition of logical incompatibility and a Bayesian framework for measuring incoherence.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1093\/pnasnexus\/pgag250","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,18]],"date-time":"2026-08-18T13:02:02Z","timestamp":1787058122000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Still very much dead and alive: Incoherence in conspiracism as a departure from Bayesian rationality"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"5","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6610-3510","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alessandro","family":"Miani","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Psychology, University of Fribourg , Rue P.-A.-de-Faucigny 2, CH-1700 Fribourg ,","place":["Switzerland"]},{"name":"School of Psychological Science, University of Bristol , 12a Priory Road, Bristol BS8 1TU ,","place":["United Kingdom"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7354-7785","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nicole","family":"Cruz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Psychology, University of Potsdam , Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24-25, 14476 Potsdam ,","place":["Germany"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1655-2013","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Stephan","family":"Lewandowsky","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Psychological Science, University of Bristol , 12a Priory Road, Bristol BS8 1TU ,","place":["United Kingdom"]},{"name":"Department of Psychology, University of Potsdam , Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24-25, 14476 Potsdam 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