{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,7]],"date-time":"2026-09-07T11:27:37Z","timestamp":1788780457715,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":81,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,1]],"date-time":"2023-03-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1677628800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/pages\/standard-publication-reuse-rights"}],"funder":[{"name":"Ordre Professionnel de la Physioth\u00e9rapie du Qu\u00e9bec"},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100021570","name":"Strategy for Patient-Oriented Research","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100021570","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>The purpose of this systematic review was to identify and appraise externally validated prognostic models to predict a patient\u2019s health outcomes relevant to physical rehabilitation of musculoskeletal (MSK) conditions.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>We systematically reviewed 8 databases and reported our findings according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis 2020. An information specialist designed a search strategy to identify externally validated prognostic models for MSK conditions. Paired reviewers independently screened the title, abstract, and full text and conducted data extraction. We extracted characteristics of included studies (eg, country and study design), prognostic models (eg, performance measures and type of model) and predicted clinical outcomes (eg, pain and disability). We assessed the risk of bias and concerns of applicability using the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool. We proposed and used a 5-step method to determine which prognostic models were clinically valuable.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>We found 4896 citations, read 300 full-text articles, and included 46 papers (37 distinct models). Prognostic models were externally validated for the spine, upper limb, lower limb conditions, and MSK trauma, injuries, and pain. All studies presented a high risk of bias. Half of the models showed low concerns for applicability. Reporting of calibration and discrimination performance measures was often lacking. We found 6 externally validated models with adequate measures, which could be deemed clinically valuable [ie, (1) STart Back Screening Tool, (2) Wallis Occupational Rehabilitation RisK model, (3) Da Silva model, (4) PICKUP model, (5) Schellingerhout rule, and (6) Keene model]. Despite having a high risk of bias, which is mostly explained by the very conservative properties of the PROBAST tool, the 6 models remain clinically relevant.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>We found 6 externally validated prognostic models developed to predict patients\u2019 health outcomes that were clinically relevant to the physical rehabilitation of MSK conditions.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Impact<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Our results provide clinicians with externally validated prognostic models to help them better predict patients\u2019 clinical outcomes and facilitate personalized treatment plans. Incorporating clinically valuable prognostic models could inherently improve the value of care provided by physical therapists.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/ptj\/pzad021","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,1]],"date-time":"2023-03-01T20:51:22Z","timestamp":1677703882000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":16,"title":["Six Externally Validated Prognostic Models Have Potential Clinical Value to Predict Patient Health Outcomes in the Rehabilitation of Musculoskeletal Conditions: A Systematic Review"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"103","author":[{"given":"Florian","family":"Naye","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Rehabilitation , Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, , Sherbrooke, Quebec , Canada"},{"name":"Universit\u00e9 de Sherbrooke , Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, , Sherbrooke, Quebec , Canada"},{"name":"Clinical Research of the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Sherbrooke (CRCHUS) , Sherbrooke, Quebec , Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Simon","family":"D\u00e9cary","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Family Medicine and Emergency Medicine , Pavillon Ferdinand-Vandry, , Quebec, Quebec , Canada"},{"name":"Universit\u00e9 Laval , Pavillon Ferdinand-Vandry, , Quebec, Quebec , Canada"},{"name":"Tier 1 Canada Research Chair in Shared Decision Making and Knowledge Translation, Centre de recherche sur les soins et les services de premi\u00e8re ligne de l\u2019Universit\u00e9 Laval (CERSSPL-UL) , Quebec, Quebec , Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Catherine","family":"Houle","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Rehabilitation , Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, , Sherbrooke, Quebec , Canada"},{"name":"Universit\u00e9 de Sherbrooke , Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, , Sherbrooke, Quebec , Canada"},{"name":"Clinical Research of the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Sherbrooke (CRCHUS) , Sherbrooke, Quebec , Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Annie","family":"LeBlanc","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Family Medicine and Emergency Medicine , Pavillon Ferdinand-Vandry, , Quebec, Quebec , Canada"},{"name":"Universit\u00e9 Laval , Pavillon Ferdinand-Vandry, , Quebec, Quebec , Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Chad","family":"Cook","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Physical Therapy Division, Duke University , Durham, North Carolina , USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mich\u00e8le","family":"Dugas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"VITAM Research Center, Centre Int\u00e9gr\u00e9 Universitaire de Sant\u00e9 et de Services Sociaux de la Capitale-Nationale , Quebec, Quebec , Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Becky","family":"Skidmore","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Independent Information Specialist , Ottawa, Ontario , Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yannick","family":"Tousignant-Laflamme","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Rehabilitation , Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, , Sherbrooke, Quebec , Canada"},{"name":"Universit\u00e9 de Sherbrooke , Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, , Sherbrooke, Quebec , Canada"},{"name":"Clinical Research of the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Sherbrooke (CRCHUS) , Sherbrooke, Quebec , Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"2023083119411162200_ref1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2006","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)32340-0","article-title":"Global estimates of the need for 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