{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,13]],"date-time":"2026-10-13T15:59:05Z","timestamp":1791907145955,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":75,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,4]],"date-time":"2026-03-04T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1772582400000},"content-version":"am","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Time-inconsistency may play a central role in explaining inter-temporal behaviour, particularly among poor households. However, little is known about the distribution of time-inconsistent agents, and time-preference parameters are typically not identified in standard dynamic choice models. We formulate a dynamic discrete choice model in an unobservedly heterogeneous population of possibly time-inconsistent agents. We provide conditions under which all population type probabilities and preferences for both time-consistent and sophisticated agents are point-identified and sharp set-identification results for na\u00efve and partially sophisticated agents. Estimating the model using data from a health intervention providing insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) in rural Odisha, India, we find that about two-thirds of our sample comprises time-inconsistent agents and that both sophisticated and na\u00efve agents are considerably present-biased. Counterfactuals show that the under-investment in ITNs attributable to present-bias leads to substantial costs that are about four times the price of an ITN.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1093\/restud\/rdag018","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,26]],"date-time":"2026-02-26T12:45:36Z","timestamp":1772109936000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Identification of Time-Inconsistent Models: The Case of Insecticide-Treated Nets"],"prefix":"10.1093","author":[{"given":"Aprajit","family":"Mahajan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Dept. of Agricultural and Resource Economics, UC Berkeley ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Christian","family":"Michel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Barcelona School of Economics ,","place":["Spain"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alessandro","family":"Tarozzi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economics, European University Institute , ; , ; and CEPR","place":["Italy Spain"]},{"name":"Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Barcelona School of Economics , ; , ; and CEPR","place":["Italy Spain"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,4]]},"reference":[{"key":"2026031909311894000_rdag018-B1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"565","DOI":"10.1111\/iere.12434","article-title":"A Comment on Estimating Dynamic Discrete Choice Models with Hyperbolic Discounting by Hanming Fang and Yang Wang","volume":"61","author":"Abbring","year":"2020","journal-title":"International Economic Review"},{"key":"2026031909311894000_rdag018-B2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"471","DOI":"10.3982\/QE1352","article-title":"Identifying the Discount Factor in Dynamic Discrete Choice Models","volume":"11","author":"Abbring","year":"2020","journal-title":"Quantitative Economics"},{"key":"2026031909311894000_rdag018-B3","author":"Abbring","year":"2019"},{"key":"2026031909311894000_rdag018-B4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"201","DOI":"10.1198\/jbes.2009.07072","article-title":"Another Look at the Identification of Dynamic Discrete Decision Processes: An Application to Retirement Behavior","volume":"28","author":"Aguirregabiria","year":"2010","journal-title":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics"},{"key":"2026031909311894000_rdag018-B5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"38","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2009.09.007","article-title":"Dynamic Discrete Choice Structural Models: A Survey","volume":"156","author":"Aguirregabiria","year":"2010","journal-title":"Journal of Econometrics"},{"key":"2026031909311894000_rdag018-B6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1428","DOI":"10.1093\/jeea\/jvac068","article-title":"Using Preference Estimates to Customize Incentives: An Application to Polio Vaccination Drives in Pakistan","volume":"21","author":"Andreoni","year":"2023","journal-title":"Journal of the European Economic Association"},{"key":"2026031909311894000_rdag018-B7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3333","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.102.7.3333","article-title":"Estimating Time Preferences from Convex Budgets","volume":"102","author":"Andreoni","year":"2012","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"key":"2026031909311894000_rdag018-B8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"363","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-economics-111809-125038","article-title":"Practical Methods for Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models","volume":"3","author":"Arcidiacono","year":"2011","journal-title":"Annual Review of Economics"},{"key":"2026031909311894000_rdag018-B9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"473","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2018.12.025","article-title":"Identifying Dynamic Discrete Choice Models Off Short Panels","volume":"215","author":"Arcidiacono","year":"2020","journal-title":"Journal of Econometrics"},{"key":"2026031909311894000_rdag018-B10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"635","DOI":"10.1162\/qjec.2006.121.2.635","article-title":"Tying Odysseus to the Mast: Evidence from a Commitment Savings Product in the Philippines","volume":"121","author":"Ashraf","year":"2006","journal-title":"The Quarterly Journal of Economics"},{"key":"2026031909311894000_rdag018-B11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1067","DOI":"10.1093\/qje\/qjv020","article-title":"Working Over Time: Dynamic Inconsistency in Real Effort Tasks","volume":"130","author":"Augenblick","year":"2015","journal-title":"The Quarterly Journal of Economics"},{"key":"2026031909311894000_rdag018-B12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"941","DOI":"10.1093\/restud\/rdy019","article-title":"An Experiment on Time Preference and Misprediction in Unpleasant Tasks","volume":"86","author":"Augenblick","year":"2019","journal-title":"The Review of Economic Studies"},{"key":"2026031909311894000_rdag018-B13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1162\/rest_a_01091","article-title":"Self-Control and Demand for Preventive Health: Evidence from Hypertension in India","volume":"103","author":"Bai","year":"2021","journal-title":"The Review of Economics and Statistics"},{"key":"2026031909311894000_rdag018-B14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"294","DOI":"10.1007\/s10683-019-09617-y","article-title":"How Soon is Now? 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