{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,13]],"date-time":"2026-10-13T03:36:44Z","timestamp":1791862604023,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":73,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,24]],"date-time":"2026-08-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1787529600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":4,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"The European Network of National Schizophrenia Networks Studying Gene- Environment Interactions","award":["HEALTH-F2-2010-241909"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["HEALTH-F2-2010-241909"]}]},{"name":"European Community\u2019s Seventh Framework Programme"},{"name":"UK Medical Research Council Fellowship","award":["MR\/J008915\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["MR\/J008915\/1"]}],"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/03x94j517","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"name":"UK Medical Research Council Fellowship","award":["MR\/N013700\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["MR\/N013700\/1"]}],"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/03x94j517","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"name":"UK Medical Research Council Fellowship","award":["MR\/W006820\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["MR\/W006820\/1"]}],"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/03x94j517","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"name":"MRC Doctoral Training Partnership in Biomedical Sciences"},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000272","name":"National Institute for Health Research","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000272","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Maudsley Biomedical Research Centre at South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust and King\u2019s College London","id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/015803449","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"name":"NHMRC Investigator Grant","award":["2026484"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2026484"]}]},{"name":"NIHR Oxford Health Biomedical Research Centre","award":["BRC-1215-20005"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["BRC-1215-20005"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000276","name":"Department of Health and Social Care","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000276","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"ICREA Acad\u00e8mia Research Award"},{"name":"Suport als Grups de Recerca","award":["2021SGR01010"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2021SGR01010"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,20]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background and Hypothesis<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Psychosis prevention can be supported by tools that facilitate the early detection of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR-P) and predicting their clinical outcomes. We aimed to use clinical, genetic, and environmental data to: (1) predict case\u2013control status as a proof-of-concept for CHR-P detection, and (2) predict transition to psychosis.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Study Design<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We used data from the European Network of National Schizophrenia Networks Studying Gene\u2013Environment Interactions: a multicenter cohort study comprising 344 CHR-P individuals and 67 healthy controls. To predict CHR-P status, we used environmental (Psychosis Polyrisk Score [PPS]) and genetic (polygenic risk score for schizophrenia [PRS]) measures with logistic regression (LR) and random forest (RF). To predict transition to psychosis, we used clinical, environmental, and genetic measures with Cox proportional hazards model and random survival forest. Primary outcomes were discrimination (C-index) and calibration (intercept and slope) in repeated nested cross-validation. Clinical utility was assessed with decision curve analysis.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Study Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>For detection of CHR-P, both PPS (LR:C\u2009=\u20090.91, 95% CI, 0.87-0.94, intercept\u2009=\u20091.46, slope\u2009=\u20090.73; RF:C\u2009=\u20090.77, 95% CI, 0.61-0.90, intercept\u2009=\u2009\u22120.53, slope\u2009=\u20090.42) and PPS\u2009+\u2009PRS (LR:C\u2009=\u20090.89, 95% CI, 0.85-0.92, intercept\u2009=\u20091.45, slope\u2009=\u20090.73; RF:C\u2009=\u20090.78, 95% CI, 0.65-0.89, intercept\u2009=\u2009\u22120.24, slope\u2009=\u20090.44) had excellent discrimination performance, whereas PRS performed substantially worse (LR:C\u2009=\u20090.60, 95% CI, 0.52-0.67, intercept\u2009=\u20091.63, slope\u2009=\u20090.81; RF:C\u2009=\u20090.57, 95% CI, 0.41-0.72, intercept\u2009=\u2009\u22120.84, slope\u2009=\u20090.10). All models over-estimated risk in individuals with low observed risk. Prognosis model performance was poor (C\u2009\u2264\u20090.65).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>CHR-P detection may be improved by using the PPS, though evidence is needed from more representative detection settings. However, we did not find evidence that baseline clinical, environmental and\/or genetic data enhanced the prediction of psychosis onset.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/schbul\/sbag088","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,2]],"date-time":"2026-05-02T12:25:04Z","timestamp":1777724704000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Psychosis Polyrisk Score and Polygenic Risk Score to Improve Detection and Prognosis in Individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: Model Development and Internal Validation"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"52","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8920-3407","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Dominic","family":"Oliver","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Psychiatry, University of Oxford , Oxford OX3 7JX ,","place":["United Kingdom"]},{"name":"NIHR Oxford Health Biomedical Research Centre , Oxford OX3 7JX ,","place":["United Kingdom"]},{"name":"OPEN Early Detection Service, Oxford Health NHS Foundation Trust , Oxford OX3 7JX ,","place":["United Kingdom"]},{"name":"Early Psychosis: Interventions and Clinical-Detection (EPIC) Lab, Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, King's College London , London SE5 8AF ,","place":["United Kingdom"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Maite","family":"Arribas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Early Psychosis: Interventions and Clinical-Detection (EPIC) Lab, Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, King's College London , London SE5 8AF ,","place":["United Kingdom"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yanakan","family":"Logeswaran","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Early Psychosis: Interventions and Clinical-Detection (EPIC) Lab, Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, King's College London , London SE5 8AF ,","place":["United Kingdom"]},{"name":"Department of Biostatistics and Health Informatics, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, King\u2019s College London , London SE5 8AF ,","place":["United Kingdom"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Laura","family":"Fusar-Poli","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Brain and Behavioral Sciences, University of Pavia , Pavia 27100 ,","place":["Italy"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Matthew J","family":"Kempton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King\u2019s College London , London SE5 8AF ,","place":["United Kingdom"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Emily P","family":"Hedges","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King\u2019s College London , London SE5 8AF ,","place":["United Kingdom"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Clara","family":"Albina\u00f1a","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford , Oxford OX3 7LF ,","place":["United Kingdom"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6363-0438","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Evangelos","family":"Vassos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Social, Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College London , London SE5 8AF ,","place":["United Kingdom"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Amir","family":"Sariaslan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Psychiatry, University of Oxford , Oxford OX3 7JX ,","place":["United Kingdom"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"William","family":"Pettersson-Yeo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Psychiatry, University of Oxford , Oxford OX3 7JX ,","place":["United Kingdom"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lucia","family":"Valmaggia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Psychology, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, King's College London , London SE5 8AF ,","place":["United Kingdom"]},{"name":"Centre for Youth Mental Health, University of Melbourne , Parkville, VIC 485 3052 ,","place":["Australia"]},{"name":"Orygen , Parkville, VIC 3052 ,","place":["Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mark","family":"van der Gaag","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Behavioural and Movement Sciences, Department of Clinical Psychology and EMGO+ Institute for Health and Care Research, VU University , 1081 BT Amsterdam ,","place":["The Netherlands"]},{"name":"Department of Psychosis Research, Parnassia Psychiatric Institute , 2512 HN The Hague ,","place":["The Netherlands"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lieuwe","family":"de Haan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department Early Psychosis, Amsterdam UMC , 1105 AZ Amsterdam ,","place":["The Netherlands"]},{"name":"Arkin , 1033 NN Amsterdam ,","place":["The Netherlands"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Barnaby","family":"Nelson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Youth Mental Health, University of Melbourne , Parkville, VIC 485 3052 ,","place":["Australia"]},{"name":"Orygen , Parkville, VIC 3052 ,","place":["Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Patrick","family":"McGorry","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Youth Mental Health, University of Melbourne , Parkville, VIC 485 3052 ,","place":["Australia"]},{"name":"Orygen , Parkville, VIC 3052 ,","place":["Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6361-8789","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Anita","family":"Riecher-R\u00f6ssler","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Medicine, University of Basel , CH-4056 Basel,","place":["Switzerland"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Erich","family":"Studerus","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Information Systems, University of Applied Sciences and Arts Northwestern Switzerland , CH-5210 Basel,","place":["Switzerland"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rodrigo","family":"Bressan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"LiNC - Lab Interdisciplinar Neuroci\u00eancias Cl\u00ednicas, Depto Psiquiatria, Escola Paulista de Medicina, Universidade Federal de 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University of Oxford , Oxford OX3 7JX ,","place":["United Kingdom"]},{"name":"NIHR Oxford Health Biomedical Research Centre , Oxford OX3 7JX ,","place":["United Kingdom"]},{"name":"OPEN Early Detection Service, Oxford Health NHS Foundation Trust , Oxford OX3 7JX ,","place":["United Kingdom"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Paolo","family":"Fusar-Poli","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Early Psychosis: Interventions and Clinical-Detection (EPIC) Lab, Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, King's College London , London SE5 8AF ,","place":["United Kingdom"]},{"name":"Department of Biostatistics and Health Informatics, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, King\u2019s College London , London SE5 8AF ,","place":["United Kingdom"]},{"name":"South London and the Maudsley NHS National Health Service Foundation Trust , London SE11 5DL ,","place":["United Kingdom"]},{"name":"Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Ludwig-Maximilian University , 80336 Munich ,","place":["Germany"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"name":"for the EU-GEI High Risk Study Group","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"2026100800430412300_ref1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"371","DOI":"10.1159\/000528513","article-title":"The lived experiences of family members and carers of people with psychosis: a bottom-up review Co-written by experts by experience and academics","volume":"56","author":"Estrad\u00e9","year":"2023","journal-title":"Psychopathology."},{"key":"2026100800430412300_ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"168","DOI":"10.1002\/wps.20959","article-title":"The lived experience of psychosis: a bottom-up review co-written by experts by experience and 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