{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,22]],"date-time":"2026-08-22T20:25:45Z","timestamp":1787430345025,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,2,17]],"date-time":"2021-02-17T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1613520000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/3.0\/igo\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000865","name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["OPP1184344"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OPP1184344"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000865","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted planned annual antibiotic mass drug administration (MDA) activities that have formed the cornerstone of the largely successful global efforts to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Using a mathematical model we investigate the impact of interruption to MDA in trachoma-endemic settings. We evaluate potential measures to mitigate this impact and consider alternative strategies for accelerating progress in those areas where the trachoma elimination targets may not be achievable otherwise.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We demonstrate that for districts that were hyperendemic at baseline, or where the trachoma elimination thresholds have not already been achieved after three rounds of MDA, the interruption to planned MDA could lead to a delay to reaching elimination targets greater than the duration of interruption. We also show that an additional round of MDA in the year following MDA resumption could effectively mitigate this delay. For districts where the probability of elimination under annual MDA was already very low, we demonstrate that more intensive MDA schedules are needed to achieve agreed targets.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Through appropriate use of additional MDA, the impact of COVID-19 in terms of delay to reaching trachoma elimination targets can be effectively mitigated. Additionally, more frequent MDA may accelerate progress towards 2030 goals.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/trstmh\/traa171","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,2,12]],"date-time":"2021-02-12T15:36:54Z","timestamp":1613144214000},"page":"213-221","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":26,"title":["Modelling trachoma post-2020: opportunities for mitigating the impact of COVID-19 and accelerating progress towards elimination"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"115","author":[{"given":"Anna","family":"Borlase","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Seth","family":"Blumberg","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Francis I Proctor Foundation, UCSF, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"E Kelly","family":"Callahan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Trachoma Control Program, The Carter Center, Atlanta, Georgia, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael S","family":"Deiner","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Francis I Proctor Foundation, UCSF, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Scott D","family":"Nash","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Trachoma Control Program, The Carter Center, Atlanta, Georgia, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Travis C","family":"Porco","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Francis I Proctor Foundation, UCSF, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Anthony W","family":"Solomon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases, World Health Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Thomas M","family":"Lietman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Francis I Proctor Foundation, UCSF, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4699-5931","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Joaquin M","family":"Prada","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"T D\u00e8irdre","family":"Hollingsworth","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,2,17]]},"reference":[{"key":"2021031104175408800_bib1","volume-title":"COVID-19 Interim Guidance","author":"World Health Organisation"},{"key":"2021031104175408800_bib2","volume-title":"Report of the 3rd Global Scientific Meeting on Trachoma","author":"World Health Organization","year":"2010"},{"issue":"1","key":"2021031104175408800_bib3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ophtha.2019.11.001","article-title":"Trachoma: Time to Talk Eradication","volume":"127","author":"Lietman","year":"2020","journal-title":"Ophthalmology"},{"issue":"8869","key":"2021031104175408800_bib4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"453","DOI":"10.1016\/0140-6736(93)91591-9","article-title":"Randomised controlled trial of single-dose azithromycin in treatment of trachoma","volume":"342","author":"Bailey","year":"1993","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"9669","key":"2021031104175408800_bib5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1111","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(09)60323-8","article-title":"Assessment of herd protection against trachoma due to repeated mass antibiotic distributions: a cluster-randomised trial","volume":"373","author":"House","year":"2009","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"10","key":"2021031104175408800_bib6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1142","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.295.10.1142","article-title":"Effect of a single mass antibiotic distribution on the prevalence of infectious trachoma","volume":"295","author":"Chidambaram","year":"2006","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"issue":"1","key":"2021031104175408800_bib7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"86","DOI":"10.1186\/s40249-020-00701-7","article-title":"Strategies supporting the prevention and control of neglected tropical diseases during and beyond the COVID-19 pandemic","volume":"9","author":"Ehrenberg","year":"2020","journal-title":"Infect Dis Poverty"},{"issue":"5","key":"2021031104175408800_bib8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"367","DOI":"10.1093\/inthealth\/ihaa040","article-title":"COVID-19 and neglected tropical diseases in Africa: impacts, interactions, consequences","volume":"12","author":"Molyneux","year":"2020","journal-title":"Int Health"},{"issue":"10","key":"2021031104175408800_bib9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"730","DOI":"10.1093\/trstmh\/traa072","article-title":"Neglecting the effect of COVID-19 on neglected tropical diseases: the Ethiopian perspective","volume":"114","author":"Abdela","year":"2020","journal-title":"Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg"},{"issue":"2","key":"2021031104175408800_bib10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e376","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0000376","article-title":"Reduction and return of infectious trachoma in severely affected communities in Ethiopia","volume":"3","author":"Lakew","year":"2009","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"issue":"5","key":"2021031104175408800_bib11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"680","DOI":"10.1136\/bjophthalmol-2017-310916","article-title":"Effectiveness of expanding annual mass azithromycin distribution treatment coverage for trachoma in Niger: a cluster randomised trial","volume":"102","author":"Amza","year":"2018","journal-title":"Br J Ophthalmol"},{"key":"2021031104175408800_bib12","article-title":"Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on eliminating trachoma as a public health problem","author":"Blumberg","year":"2020","journal-title":"Under Rev"},{"issue":"suppl_4","key":"2021031104175408800_bib13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S275","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/ciy004","article-title":"Models of trachoma transmission and their policy implications: from control to elimination","volume":"66","author":"Lietman","year":"2018","journal-title":"Clin Infect Dis"},{"issue":"Supplement_5","key":"2021031104175408800_bib14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S519","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jiz691","article-title":"Trachoma prevalence after discontinuation of mass azithromycin distribution","volume":"221","author":"Godwin","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Infect Dis"},{"issue":"2","key":"2021031104175408800_bib15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0005378","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0005378","article-title":"Improving our forecasts for trachoma elimination: What else do we need to know?","volume":"11","author":"Pinsent","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"issue":"10","key":"2021031104175408800_bib16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0006531","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0006531","article-title":"Optimising sampling regimes and data collection to inform surveillance for trachoma control","volume":"12","author":"Pinsent","year":"2018","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"issue":"2","key":"2021031104175408800_bib17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"389","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.17-0501","article-title":"Comparison of mass azithromycin coverage targets of children in Niger: A cluster-randomized trachoma trial","volume":"98","author":"Oldenburg","year":"2018","journal-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg"},{"issue":"3","key":"2021031104175408800_bib18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"479","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268899003076","article-title":"The duration of human ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection is age dependent","volume":"123","author":"Bailey","year":"1999","journal-title":"Epidemiol Infect"},{"issue":"12","key":"2021031104175408800_bib19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e341","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0000341","article-title":"The natural history of trachoma infection and disease in a Gambian cohort with frequent follow-up","volume":"2","author":"Grassly","year":"2008","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"issue":"9379","key":"2021031104175408800_bib20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"198","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(03)13909-8","article-title":"Strategies for control of trachoma: observational study with quantitative PCR","volume":"362","author":"Solomon","year":"2003","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"2021031104175408800_bib21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"10","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2013.12.001","article-title":"The efficacy of oral azithromycin in clearing ocular chlamydia: mathematical modeling from a community-randomized trachoma trial","volume":"6","author":"Liu","year":"2014","journal-title":"Epidemics"},{"key":"2021031104175408800_bib22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"56","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2017.02.002","article-title":"Measuring and modelling the effects of systematic non-adherence to mass drug administration","volume":"18","author":"Dyson","year":"2017","journal-title":"Epidemics."},{"key":"2021031104175408800_bib23","volume-title":"World Health Organization Technical advisory group on neglected tropical diseases","year":"2014"},{"key":"2021031104175408800_bib24","volume-title":"Database of privately and publicly funded clinical studies around the world"},{"issue":"5","key":"2021031104175408800_bib25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0008226","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0008226","article-title":"Ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection and infectious load among pre-school aged children within trachoma hyperendemic districts receiving the SAFE strategy, Amhara region, Ethiopia","volume":"14","author":"Nash","year":"2020","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"issue":"1","key":"2021031104175408800_bib26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"83","DOI":"10.1167\/iovs.04-0327","article-title":"Mass treatment and the effect on the load of Chlamydia trachomatis infection in a trachoma-hyperendemic community","volume":"46","author":"West","year":"2005","journal-title":"Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci"},{"issue":"5","key":"2021031104175408800_bib27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/femspd\/ftx050","article-title":"Spatial clustering of high load ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection in trachoma: a cross-sectional population-based study","volume":"75","author":"Last","year":"2017","journal-title":"Pathog Dis"},{"issue":"10","key":"2021031104175408800_bib28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0005080","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0005080","article-title":"The relationship between active trachoma and ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection before and after mass antibiotic treatment","volume":"10","author":"Ramadhani","year":"2016","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"2021031104175408800_bib29","volume-title":"End the neglect to attain the sustainable development goals - A Road Map for Neglected Tropical Diseases 2021\u20132030","author":"World Health Organization","year":"2020"},{"issue":"9960","key":"2021031104175408800_bib30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2142","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(13)62182-0","article-title":"Trachoma","volume":"384","author":"Taylor","year":"2014","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"2021031104175408800_bib31","volume-title":"Considerations for Implementing Mass Treatment, Active Case-Finding and Population-Based Surveys for Neglected Tropical Diseases in The Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic","author":"World Health Organization"},{"issue":"2","key":"2021031104175408800_bib32","first-page":"241","article-title":"Mass drug administration: the importance of synchrony","volume":"34","author":"Gao","year":"2017","journal-title":"Math Med Biol"},{"issue":"1","key":"2021031104175408800_bib33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1983","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0001983","article-title":"The easiest children to reach are most likely to be infected with ocular Chlamydia trachomatis in trachoma endemic areas of Niger","volume":"7","author":"Amza","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"issue":"2","key":"2021031104175408800_bib34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0006270","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0006270","article-title":"Population-based coverage survey results following the mass drug administration of azithromycin for the treatment of trachoma in Amhara, Ethiopia","volume":"12","author":"Astale","year":"2018","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"}],"container-title":["Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/academic.oup.com\/trstmh\/article-pdf\/115\/3\/213\/36508383\/traa171.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"http:\/\/academic.oup.com\/trstmh\/article-pdf\/115\/3\/213\/36508383\/traa171.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,10]],"date-time":"2021-03-10T23:37:16Z","timestamp":1615419436000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/trstmh\/article\/115\/3\/213\/6141478"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,2,17]]},"references-count":34,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,2,17]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,6]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/trstmh\/traa171","relation":{"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1101\/2020.10.27.20219618","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["0035-9203","1878-3503"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0035-9203","type":"print"},{"value":"1878-3503","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published-other":{"date-parts":[[2021,3]]},"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,2,17]]}}}