{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,31]],"date-time":"2026-08-31T10:57:22Z","timestamp":1788173842039,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":45,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,21]],"date-time":"2022-09-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1663718400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100010269","name":"Wellcome Trust","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["201900\/Z\/16\/Z"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["201900\/Z\/16\/Z"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100010269","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,2,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>Understanding and accurately predicting the environmental limits, population at risk and burden of podoconiosis are critical for delivering targeted and equitable prevention and treatment services, planning control and elimination programs and implementing tailored case finding and surveillance activities.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>This is secondary analysis of a nationwide podoconiosis mapping survey in Kenya. We combined national representative prevalence survey data of podoconiosis with climate and environmental data, overlayed with population figures in a geostatistical modelling framework, to predict the environmental suitability, population living in at-risk areas and number of cases of podoconiosis in Kenya.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>In 2020, the number of people living with podoconiosis in Kenya was estimated to be 9344 (95% uncertainty interval 4222 to 17\u00a0962). The distribution of podoconiosis varies by geography and three regions (Eastern, Nyanza and Western) represent &amp;gt;90% of the absolute number of cases. High environmental suitability for podoconiosis was predicted in four regions of Kenya (Coastal, Eastern, Nyanza and Western). In total, 2.2 million people live in at-risk areas and 4.2% of the total landmass of Kenya is environmentally predisposed for podoconiosis.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>The burden of podoconiosis is relatively low in Kenya and is mostly restricted to certain small geographical areas. Our results will help guide targeted prevention and treatment approaches through local planning, spatial targeting and tailored surveillance activities.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/trstmh\/trac092","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,21]],"date-time":"2022-09-21T22:06:44Z","timestamp":1663798004000},"page":"72-82","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":8,"title":["Geostatistical modelling of the distribution, risk and burden of podoconiosis in Kenya"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"117","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8526-6996","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kebede","family":"Deribe","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Children's Investment Fund Foundation , Addis Ababa , Ethiopia"},{"name":"Brighton and Sussex Centre for Global Health Research, Department of Global Health and Infection, Brighton and Sussex Medical School , Brighton , UK"},{"name":"School of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Addis Ababa University , Addis Ababa, Ethiopia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hadley Matendechero","family":"Sultani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Kenya National Public Health Institute , Nairobi , Kenya"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Collins","family":"Okoyo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Eastern and Southern Africa Centre of International Parasite Control, Kenya Medical Research Institute , Nairobi , Kenya"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wyckliff P","family":"Omondi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Vector Borne and Neglected Tropical Diseases , Ministry of Health, Nairobi , Kenya"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Isaac","family":"Ngere","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Global Health Program, Washington State University , Nairobi , Kenya"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8946-7525","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Melanie J","family":"Newport","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Brighton and Sussex Centre for Global Health Research, Department of Global Health and Infection, Brighton and Sussex Medical School , Brighton , UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jorge","family":"Cano","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Expanded Special Project for Elimination of Neglected Tropical Diseases, World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa , Brazzaville , Republic of the Congo"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"2023020109511297800_bib1","article-title":"OpenWHO: podoconiosis: training of health workers at national and district levels on skin-NTDs","author":"World Health Organization"},{"key":"2023020109511297800_bib2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"231","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-25471-5_10","article-title":"Podoconiosis: endemic non-filarial elephantiasis","volume-title":"Neglected tropical diseases - sub-Saharan Africa","author":"Deribe","year":"2016","edition":"1st ed"},{"issue":"105918","key":"2023020109511297800_bib3","article-title":"Podoconiosis \u2013 from known to unknown: obstacles to tackle","volume":"219","author":"Wanji","year":"2021","journal-title":"Acta Trop"},{"issue":"8","key":"2023020109511297800_bib4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0008616","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0008616","article-title":"Predicting the environmental suitability and population at risk of podoconiosis in Africa","volume":"14","author":"Deribe","year":"2020","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"issue":"122","key":"2023020109511297800_bib5","article-title":"The impact of podoconiosis on quality of life in northern Ethiopia","volume":"11","author":"Mousley","year":"2013","journal-title":"Health Qual Life Outcomes"},{"issue":"2","key":"2023020109511297800_bib6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"124","DOI":"10.1093\/inthealth\/ihv037","article-title":"Depression and disability in people with podoconiosis: a comparative cross-sectional study in rural northern Ethiopia","volume":"8","author":"Bartlett","year":"2015","journal-title":"Int Health"},{"issue":"3","key":"2023020109511297800_bib7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"176","DOI":"10.1016\/j.inhe.2011.06.006","article-title":"A qualitative study on stigma and coping strategies of patients with podoconiosis in Wolaita zone, southern Ethiopia","volume":"3","author":"Tora","year":"2011","journal-title":"Int Health"},{"issue":"7","key":"2023020109511297800_bib8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e795","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214-109X(18)30124-4","article-title":"Lymphoedema management to prevent acute dermatolymphangioadenitis in podoconiosis in northern Ethiopia (GoLBeT): a pragmatic randomised controlled trial","volume":"6","author":"Negussie","year":"2018","journal-title":"Lancet Glob Health"},{"issue":"10","key":"2023020109511297800_bib9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"712","DOI":"10.2471\/BLT.14.150276","article-title":"The feasibility of eliminating podoconiosis","volume":"93","author":"Deribe","year":"2015","journal-title":"Bull World Health Org"},{"issue":"2","key":"2023020109511297800_bib10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0007925","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0007925","article-title":"Mapping the global distribution of podoconiosis: applying an evidence consensus approach","volume":"13","author":"Deribe","year":"2019","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"issue":"78","key":"2023020109511297800_bib11","article-title":"Estimating the number of cases of podoconiosis in Ethiopia using geostatistical methods","volume":"2","author":"Deribe","year":"2017","journal-title":"Wellcome Open Res"},{"issue":"3","key":"2023020109511297800_bib12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e000730","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjgh-2018-000730","article-title":"Predicted distribution and burden of podoconiosis in Cameroon","volume":"3","author":"Deribe","year":"2018","journal-title":"BMJ Glob Health"},{"issue":"5","key":"2023020109511297800_bib13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e671","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214-109X(19)30072-5","article-title":"Geographical distribution and prevalence of podoconiosis in Rwanda: a cross-sectional country-wide survey","volume":"7","author":"Deribe","year":"2019","journal-title":"Lancet Glob Health"},{"issue":"5","key":"2023020109511297800_bib14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1420","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.21-0248","article-title":"Mapping of podoconiosis cases and risk factors in Kenya: a nationwide cross-sectional study","volume":"105","author":"Sultani","year":"2021","journal-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg"},{"issue":"1","key":"2023020109511297800_bib15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0006125","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0006126","article-title":"Mapping the geographical distribution of podoconiosis in Cameroon using parasitological, serological, and clinical evidence to exclude other causes of lymphedema","volume":"12","author":"Deribe","year":"2018","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"issue":"7","key":"2023020109511297800_bib16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0003946","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0003946","article-title":"Mapping and modelling the geographical distribution and environmental limits of podoconiosis in Ethiopia","volume":"9","author":"Deribe","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"2023020109511297800_bib17","article-title":"Global climate data","author":"WorldClim"},{"issue":"15","key":"2023020109511297800_bib18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1965","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.1276","article-title":"Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas","volume":"25","author":"Hijmans","year":"2005","journal-title":"Int J Climatol"},{"issue":"12","key":"2023020109511297800_bib19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4302","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.5086","article-title":"WorldClim 2: new 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas","volume":"37","author":"Fick","year":"2017","journal-title":"Int J Climatol"},{"key":"2023020109511297800_bib20","article-title":"Consortium for spatial information","author":"CGIAR-CSI"},{"key":"2023020109511297800_bib21","author":"Plant OSM"},{"key":"2023020109511297800_bib22"},{"key":"2023020109511297800_bib23","article-title":"Soil property maps of Africa at 1 km","author":"ISRIC - World Soil Information"},{"issue":"2","key":"2023020109511297800_bib24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0169748","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0169748","article-title":"SoilGrids250m: global gridded soil information based on machine learning","volume":"12","author":"Hengl","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"2023020109511297800_bib25","article-title":"OpenLandMap. Soil properties and classes.","author":"OpenGeoHub"},{"key":"2023020109511297800_bib26","article-title":"DMSP-OLS nighttime lights time series","author":"Earth Observation Group"},{"issue":"1","key":"2023020109511297800_bib27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"75","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolecon.2005.03.007","article-title":"Mapping regional economic activity from night-time light satellite imagery","volume":"57","author":"Doll","year":"2006","journal-title":"Ecol Econ"},{"issue":"1","key":"2023020109511297800_bib28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5","DOI":"10.1186\/1476-072X-4-5","article-title":"From wealth to health: modelling the distribution of income per capita at the sub-national level using night-time light imagery","volume":"4","author":"Ebener","year":"2005","journal-title":"Int J Health Geogr"},{"key":"2023020109511297800_bib29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5","DOI":"10.1186\/1478-7954-6-5","article-title":"Using remotely sensed night-time light as a proxy for poverty in Africa","volume":"6","author":"Noor","year":"2008","journal-title":"Popul Health Metr"},{"issue":"3","key":"2023020109511297800_bib30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"369","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-0587.2008.05742.x","article-title":"BIOMOD \u2013 a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions","volume":"32","author":"Thuiller","year":"2009","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"2023020109511297800_bib31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","article-title":"biomod2: ensemble platform for species distribution modeling","author":"Thuiller","DOI":"10.32614\/CRAN.package.biomod2"},{"issue":"7446","key":"2023020109511297800_bib32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"504","DOI":"10.1038\/nature12060","article-title":"The global distribution and burden of dengue","volume":"496","author":"Bhatt","year":"2013","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"2023020109511297800_bib33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e02851","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.02851","article-title":"Global distribution maps of the leishmaniases","volume":"3","author":"Pigott","year":"2014","journal-title":"Elife"},{"key":"2023020109511297800_bib34","volume-title":"Modeling tree species distribution and dynamics under a changing climate, natural disturbances, and harvest alternatives in the southern United States","author":"Sui","year":"2015"},{"issue":"2","key":"2023020109511297800_bib35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"232","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-0587.2010.06354.x","article-title":"Measuring and comparing the accuracy of species distribution models with presence-absence data","volume":"34","author":"Liu","year":"2011","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"issue":"8","key":"2023020109511297800_bib36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v078.i08","article-title":"PrevMap: an R package for prevalence mapping","volume":"78","author":"Giorgi","year":"2017","journal-title":"J Stat Softw"},{"issue":"12","key":"2023020109511297800_bib37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1298","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0001298","article-title":"High resolution settlement and population maps for low income nations: combining land cover and national census in East Africa","volume":"2","author":"Tatem","year":"2007","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"2","key":"2023020109511297800_bib38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e31743","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0031743","article-title":"Population distribution, settlement patterns and accessibility across Africa in 2010","volume":"7","author":"Linard","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"11","key":"2023020109511297800_bib39","first-page":"69","article-title":"Analysis of spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall variations over Kenya","volume":"6","author":"Ayugi","year":"2016","journal-title":"J Environ Earth Sci"},{"issue":"2","key":"2023020109511297800_bib40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"171","DOI":"10.1016\/S0001-706X(00)00185-6","article-title":"Non-filarial elephantiasis in the Mt. Elgon area (Kapchorwa District) of Uganda","volume":"78","author":"Onapa","year":"2001","journal-title":"Acta Trop"},{"issue":"9","key":"2023020109511297800_bib41","first-page":"260","article-title":"Elucidating the causes of low phosphorus levels in ferralsols of Siaya County, western Kenya","volume":"6","author":"Owino","year":"2015","journal-title":"J Soil Sci Environ Manag"},{"issue":"1","key":"2023020109511297800_bib42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"29","DOI":"10.9734\/IJPSS\/2015\/11880","article-title":"Pedological characterization of some typical soils of Busia County, western Kenya: soil morphology, physico-chemical properties, classification and fertility trends","volume":"4","author":"Kebeney","year":"2015","journal-title":"Int J Plant Soil Sci"},{"key":"2023020109511297800_bib43","first-page":"652","article-title":"Integrated morbidity management for lymphatic filariasis and podoconiosis, Ethiopia","volume-title":"Bull World Health Org","author":"Deribe","year":"2017"},{"issue":"1","key":"2023020109511297800_bib44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"99","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-017-2044-5","article-title":"Assessment of lymphatic filariasis prior to re-starting mass drug administration campaigns in coastal Kenya","volume":"10","author":"Njenga","year":"2017","journal-title":"Parasit Vectors"},{"issue":"5","key":"2023020109511297800_bib45","first-page":"245","article-title":"Bancroftian filariasis in Kwale district, Kenya","volume":"77","author":"Njenga","year":"2000","journal-title":"East Afr Med J"}],"container-title":["Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/trstmh\/article-pdf\/117\/2\/72\/49016964\/trac092.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/trstmh\/article-pdf\/117\/2\/72\/49016964\/trac092.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,10,3]],"date-time":"2024-10-03T04:45:32Z","timestamp":1727930732000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/trstmh\/article\/117\/2\/72\/6710348"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,21]]},"references-count":45,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,21]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,2,1]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/trstmh\/trac092","relation":{},"ISSN":["0035-9203","1878-3503"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0035-9203","type":"print"},{"value":"1878-3503","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published-other":{"date-parts":[[2023,2]]},"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,21]]}}}