{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,1]],"date-time":"2025-10-01T16:30:11Z","timestamp":1759336211274,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":30,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,22]],"date-time":"2025-05-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1747872000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/journals\/pages\/open_access\/funder_policies\/chorus\/standard_publication_model"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003593","name":"National Council for Scientific and Technological Development","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["No. 18\/2021","402514\/2021-1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["No. 18\/2021","402514\/2021-1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003593","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003246","name":"NWO","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["07.30323.007"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["07.30323.007"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003246","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Climate change projections impact dengue transmission in tropical regions, creating diverse and complex public health challenges. The aim of this study was to project future seasonal dengue incidence in a large tropical urban area of Brazil, where dengue is endemic, by systematically analyzing climatic and dengue case time series.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>An epidemiological dengue model was developed using time series analysis techniques and forced with statistical downscaling from various Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios for the late twenty-first century (2071\u20132100). The ecological time-series investigation analyzed 193 618 dengue cases from January 2008 to December 2018. Statistical downscaling transformed low-resolution Global Climate Models\u2019 outputs into high-resolution data, based on a 30-y climate baseline.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>The results indicated significant climate changes in seasonal temperature and precipitation by the end of the century. Under both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, substantial increases in dengue cases are projected during current low-incidence months, resulting in a reduced seasonality of dengue.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>The findings represent considerable challenges for future public health systems, which may face sustained high levels of dengue incidence throughout the year.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/trstmh\/traf052","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,22]],"date-time":"2025-05-22T10:13:37Z","timestamp":1747908817000},"page":"1164-1176","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Projecting high-level dengue increases during low-incidence months in a large endemic urban area"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"119","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4771-1382","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alexandre Cunha","family":"Costa","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University for International Integration of the Afro-Brazilian Lusophony Engineering and Sustainable Development Institute, , Redencao 62790-000 ,","place":["Brazil"]},{"name":"Wageningen University Water Resources Management Group, , Wageningen 6700 AA ,","place":["The Netherlands"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0360-1963","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jos\u00e9 Micael Ferreira","family":"da Costa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Federal University of Ceara Department of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, , Fortaleza 60440-900 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