{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,30]],"date-time":"2025-07-30T12:17:32Z","timestamp":1753877852690,"version":"3.41.2"},"reference-count":33,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,11,15]],"date-time":"2019-11-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1573776000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>The objective of this study was to develop multiple prediction tools that calculate the risk of developing dengue haemorrhagic fever.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>Training data consisted of 1771 individuals from 2006\u20132008 admitted with dengue fever whereby 304 developed dengue haemorrhagic fever during hospitalisation. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was used to construct three types of calculators, static admission calculators and dynamic calculators that predict the risk of developing dengue haemorrhagic fever for a subsequent day (DAily Risk Tomorrow [DART]) or for any future point after a specific day since fever onset (DAily Risk Ever [DARE]).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>From 119 admission covariates, 35 were in at least one of the calculators, which reported area under the curve (AUC) values of at least 0.72. Addition of person-time data for DART improved AUC to 0.76. DARE calculators displayed a large increase in AUC to 0.79 past day 7 with the inclusion of a strong predictor, maximum temperature on day 6 since onset, indicative of a saddleback fever.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>All calculators performed well when validated with 2005 data. Addition of daily variables further improved the accuracy. These calculators can be used in tandem to assess the risk of dengue haemorrhagic fever upon admission and updated daily to obtain more precise risk estimates.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/trstmh\/trz099","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,8,16]],"date-time":"2019-08-16T11:27:37Z","timestamp":1565954857000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Dynamic dengue haemorrhagic fever calculators as clinical decision support tools in adult dengue"],"prefix":"10.1093","author":[{"given":"Ken Wei","family":"Tan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, 12 Science Drive 2, Singapore 117549"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ben","family":"Tan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Ministry of Education, 1 North Buona Vista Drive, Singapore 138675"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Tun L","family":"Thein","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Centre for Infectious Diseases, 16 Jln Tan Tock Seng, Singapore 308442"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yee-Sin","family":"Leo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, 12 Science Drive 2, Singapore 117549"},{"name":"National Centre for Infectious Diseases, 16 Jln Tan Tock Seng, Singapore 308442"},{"name":"Tan Tock Seng Hospital, 11 Jln Tan Tock Seng, Singapore 308433"},{"name":"Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, 10 Medical Drive, Singapore 117597"},{"name":"Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological University, 59 Nanyang Drive, Singapore 636921"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"David C","family":"Lye","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Centre for Infectious Diseases, 16 Jln Tan Tock Seng, Singapore 308442"},{"name":"Tan Tock Seng Hospital, 11 Jln Tan Tock Seng, Singapore 308433"},{"name":"Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, 10 Medical Drive, Singapore 117597"},{"name":"Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological University, 59 Nanyang Drive, Singapore 636921"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Borame L","family":"Dickens","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, 12 Science Drive 2, Singapore 117549"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Joshua Guo Xian","family":"Wong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Tan Tock Seng Hospital, 11 Jln Tan Tock Seng, Singapore 308433"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Alex R","family":"Cook","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, 12 Science Drive 2, Singapore 117549"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,11,15]]},"reference":[{"key":"2019111505401024100_ref1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"h4661","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.h4661","article-title":"Dengue fever","volume":"351","author":"Kularatne","year":"2015","journal-title":"BMJ."},{"key":"2019111505401024100_ref2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1423","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMra1110265","article-title":"Dengue","volume":"366","author":"Simmons","year":"2012","journal-title":"N Engl J Med."},{"volume-title":"Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever: Diagnosis, Treatment, Prevention and Control","year":"1997","key":"2019111505401024100_ref3"},{"volume-title":"Dengue and Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever","year":"2009","author":"US Department of Health and Human Services","key":"2019111505401024100_ref4"},{"key":"2019111505401024100_ref5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"8","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1501.071097","article-title":"Threat of dengue to blood safety in dengue-endemic countries","volume":"15","author":"Wilder-Smith","year":"2009","journal-title":"Emerg Infect Dis."},{"key":"2019111505401024100_ref6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0136286","article-title":"Increasing dengue incidence in Singapore over the past 40 years: population growth, climate and mobility","volume":"10","author":"Struchiner","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS One."},{"key":"2019111505401024100_ref7","article-title":"Development of a simple clinical risk score for early prediction of severe dengue in adult patients","volume":"11","author":"Lee","year":"2016","journal-title":"PLoS One."},{"key":"2019111505401024100_ref8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0002972","article-title":"Predictive tools for severe dengue conforming to World Health Organization 2009 criteria","volume":"8","author":"Carrasco","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis."},{"key":"2019111505401024100_ref9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"37","DOI":"10.1093\/trstmh\/trs009","article-title":"Safety and cost savings of reducing adult dengue hospitalization in a tertiary care hospital in Singapore","volume":"107","author":"Lee","year":"2013","journal-title":"Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg."},{"key":"2019111505401024100_ref10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"34","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jcv.2007.12.017","article-title":"Predictive value of simple clinical and laboratory variables for dengue hemorrhagic fever in adults","volume":"42","author":"Lee","year":"2008","journal-title":"J Clin Virol."},{"key":"2019111505401024100_ref11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"76","DOI":"10.1002\/nur.10015","article-title":"Multiple imputation for missing data","volume":"25","author":"Patrician","year":"2002","journal-title":"Res Nurs Health."},{"key":"2019111505401024100_ref12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/0895-4356(92)90180-U","article-title":"The logistic modeling of sensitivity, specificity, and predictive value of a diagnostic test","volume":"45","author":"Coughlin","year":"1992","journal-title":"J Clin Epidemiol."},{"key":"2019111505401024100_ref13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"267","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2517-6161.1996.tb02080.x","article-title":"Regression shrinkage and selection via the Lasso","volume":"58","author":"Tibshirani","year":"1996","journal-title":"J R Stat Soc Ser B Methodol."},{"key":"2019111505401024100_ref14","article-title":"R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing","author":"R Core Team","year":"2013","journal-title":"R Foundation for Statistical Computing"},{"key":"2019111505401024100_ref15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"533","DOI":"10.1007\/s00705-006-0869-x","article-title":"Race: a risk factor for dengue hemorrhagic fever","volume":"152","author":"de la C Sierra B, Kour\u00ed G, Guzm\u00e1n MG","year":"2007","journal-title":"Arch Virol."},{"key":"2019111505401024100_ref16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"133","DOI":"10.25100\/cm.v47i3.1592","article-title":"AfroColombian ethnicity, a paradoxical protective factor against dengue","volume":"47","author":"Rojas Palacios","year":"2016","journal-title":"Colomb. M\u00e9dica"},{"key":"2019111505401024100_ref17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0001676","article-title":"Clinical relevance and discriminatory value of elevated liver aminotransferase levels for dengue severity","volume":"6","author":"Lee","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis."},{"volume-title":"Dengue Guidelines for Diagnosis, Treatment, Prevention, and Control","year":"2009","author":"World Health Organization","key":"2019111505401024100_ref18"},{"key":"2019111505401024100_ref19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0167025","article-title":"The significance of prolonged and saddleback fever in hospitalised adult dengue","volume":"11","author":"Ng","year":"2016","journal-title":"PLoS One."},{"key":"2019111505401024100_ref20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0004284","article-title":"Relevance of non-communicable comorbidities for the development of the severe forms of dengue: a systematic literature review","volume":"10","author":"Toledo","year":"2016","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis."},{"key":"2019111505401024100_ref21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0004619","article-title":"NTD and NCD co-morbidities: the example of dengue fever","volume":"10","author":"Mehta","year":"2016","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis."},{"key":"2019111505401024100_ref22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1590\/0074-02760180082","article-title":"Comorbidities increase in-hospital mortality in dengue patients in Brazil","volume":"113","author":"Werneck","year":"2018","journal-title":"Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz."},{"key":"2019111505401024100_ref23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0002712","article-title":"Predictive value of proteinuria in adult dengue severity","volume":"8","author":"Vasanwala","year":"2014","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis."},{"key":"2019111505401024100_ref24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"942","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2011.11-0149","article-title":"Validation of probability equation and decision tree in predicting subsequent dengue hemorrhagic fever in adult dengue inpatients in Singapore","volume":"85","author":"Thein","year":"2011","journal-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg."},{"key":"2019111505401024100_ref25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"109","DOI":"10.1186\/s12887-018-1078-y","article-title":"Predicting the severity of dengue fever in children on admission based on clinical features and laboratory indicators: application of classification tree analysis","volume":"18","author":"Phakhounthong","year":"2018","journal-title":"BMC Pediatr."},{"key":"2019111505401024100_ref26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-017-2800-3","article-title":"A retrospective cohort study to predict severe dengue in Honduran patients","volume":"17","author":"Fern\u00e1ndez","year":"2017","journal-title":"BMC Infect Dis."},{"key":"2019111505401024100_ref27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph15092018","article-title":"The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of warning signs in predicting severe dengue, the severe dengue prevalence and its associated factors","volume":"15","author":"Ahmad","year":"2018","journal-title":"Int J Environ Res Public Health"},{"key":"2019111505401024100_ref28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1104","DOI":"10.1016\/j.celrep.2019.01.033","article-title":"A 20-gene set predictive of progression to severe dengue","volume":"26","author":"Robinson","year":"2019","journal-title":"Cell Rep"},{"issue":"(Suppl 1)","key":"2019111505401024100_ref29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S77","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jinf.2014.07.020","article-title":"Dengue in children","volume":"69","author":"Verhagen","year":"2014","journal-title":"J Infect."},{"key":"2019111505401024100_ref30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e769","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0000769","article-title":"Prediction of dengue disease severity among pediatric Thai patients using early clinical laboratory indicators","volume":"4","author":"Potts","year":"2010","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis."},{"key":"2019111505401024100_ref31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0161696","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0161696","article-title":"Proposal of a clinical decision tree algorithm using factors associated with severe dengue infection","volume":"11","author":"Tamibmaniam","year":"2016","journal-title":"PloS One."},{"key":"2019111505401024100_ref32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"327","DOI":"10.1136\/amiajnl-2011-000094","article-title":"Effects of clinical decision-support systems on practitioner performance and patient outcomes: a synthesis of high-quality systematic review findings","volume":"18","author":"Jaspers","year":"2011","journal-title":"J Am Med Inform Assoc."},{"key":"2019111505401024100_ref33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"765","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.38398.500764.8F","article-title":"Improving clinical practice using clinical decision support systems: a systematic review of trials to identify features critical to success","volume":"330","author":"Kawamoto","year":"2005","journal-title":"BMJ."}],"container-title":["Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/academic.oup.com\/trstmh\/advance-article-pdf\/doi\/10.1093\/trstmh\/trz099\/30794644\/trz099.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"http:\/\/academic.oup.com\/trstmh\/advance-article-pdf\/doi\/10.1093\/trstmh\/trz099\/30794644\/trz099.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,22]],"date-time":"2024-07-22T03:02:30Z","timestamp":1721617350000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/trstmh\/advance-article\/doi\/10.1093\/trstmh\/trz099\/5626017"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2019,11,15]]},"references-count":33,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/trstmh\/trz099","relation":{},"ISSN":["0035-9203","1878-3503"],"issn-type":[{"type":"print","value":"0035-9203"},{"type":"electronic","value":"1878-3503"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2019,11,15]]},"article-number":"trz099"}}