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Winters with extensive sea ice have been linked to high post-larval krill recruitment the following spring, suggesting that sea ice plays a critical role in larval overwinter survival. As the ocean warms and sea ice declines under climate change, understanding the mechanisms linking sea ice and krill recruitment is increasingly urgent. To address this, we developed a qualitative network model (QNM) that integrates evidence-based and hypothesized interactions to explore larval overwinter survival and growth under future climate scenarios in the southwest Atlantic sector. Our model highlights habitat-specific impacts, with substantial declines predicted for the North Antarctic Peninsula continental shelf due to reduced autumn primary productivity and warming. In contrast, survival may improve in open-ocean habitats under cooler scenarios that enhance sea-ice-associated processes, such as food availability and refuge. The inclusion of hypothesized mechanisms, such as sea-ice terraces providing refuge from predation, strengthened these conclusions and highlighted critical uncertainties, including the influence of glacial melt on food web dynamics. These findings demonstrate the value of QNMs in complementing quantitative approaches, offering a framework for identifying critical mechanisms, addressing knowledge gaps, and guiding future field and laboratory studies to improve predictions of krill responses to climate change.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1093\/icesjms\/fsaf049","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,18]],"date-time":"2025-04-18T08:52:23Z","timestamp":1744966343000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Untangling the complexities of larval Antarctic krill overwintering success under climate change"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"82","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2057-3741","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Zephyr T","family":"Sylvester","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Environmental Studies Department, University of Colorado Boulder , Boulder, CO 80305 ,","place":["United States of America"]},{"name":"Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research , Boulder, CO 80305 ,","place":["United States of America"]}]},{"given":"Devi","family":"Veytia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies , Hobart, Tasmania 7000 ,","place":["Australia"]},{"name":"Australian Antarctic Program Partnership , Hobart, Tasmania 7001 ,","place":["Australia"]},{"name":"FRB-CESAB, Fondation pour la Recherche sur la Biodiversit\u00e9 , 34000 Montpellier ,","place":["France"]}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8575-2679","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alexis A","family":"Bahl","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of British Columbia , Vancouver V6T 1Z4 ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia , Vancouver V6T 1Z4 ,","place":["Canada"]}]},{"given":"Dominik","family":"Bahlburg","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Technische Universit\u00e4t Dresden , 01062 Dresden ,","place":["Germany"]},{"name":"Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research , 04318 Leipzig ,","place":["Germany"]}]},{"given":"Deborah","family":"Benkort","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institut des sciences de la mer de Rimouski (ISMER)- Universit\u00e9 du Qu\u00e9bec \u00e0 Rimouski , Rimouski, Quebec G5L 2Z9 ,","place":["Canada"]}]},{"given":"Sophie","family":"Bestley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies , Hobart, Tasmania 7000 ,","place":["Australia"]},{"name":"Australian Antarctic Program Partnership , Hobart, Tasmania 7001 ,","place":["Australia"]}]},{"given":"Bulut","family":"Cagdas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Marine Sciences, Middle East Technical University , Erdemli-Mersin 33731 ,","place":["Turkey"]}]},{"given":"Alison C","family":"Cleary","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Australian Antarctic Division, Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water , Kingston, Tasmania 7050 ,","place":["Australia"]},{"name":"British Antarctic Survey , Cambridge CB3 0ET ,","place":["United Kingdom"]}]},{"given":"Andrew","family":"Constable","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Australian Antarctic Division, Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water , Kingston, Tasmania 7050 ,","place":["Australia"]},{"name":"Centre for Marine Sociology, University of Tasmania , Hobart, Tasmania 7001 ,","place":["Australia"]},{"name":"Sydney Institute of Marine Science , Sydney, New South Wales 2088 ,","place":["Australia"]}]},{"given":"Stuart","family":"Corney","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies , Hobart, Tasmania 7000 ,","place":["Australia"]},{"name":"Australian Antarctic Program Partnership , Hobart, Tasmania 7001 ,","place":["Australia"]}]},{"given":"Bettina A","family":"Fach","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Marine Sciences, Middle East Technical University , Erdemli-Mersin 33731 ,","place":["Turkey"]}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3053-8720","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nicole","family":"Hellessey","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies , Hobart, Tasmania 7000 ,","place":["Australia"]},{"name":"Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences , East Boothbay, Maine 04544 ,","place":["United States"]}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1441-8769","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Simeon L","family":"Hill","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"British Antarctic Survey , Cambridge CB3 0ET ,","place":["United Kingdom"]}]},{"given":"Nadine M","family":"Johnston","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"British Antarctic Survey , Cambridge CB3 0ET ,","place":["United Kingdom"]}]},{"given":"Sara","family":"Labrousse","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratoire d'Oc\u00e9anographie et du Climat , Paris 75005 ,","place":["France"]}]},{"given":"Benjamin","family":"Merkel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Akvaplan-niva, Fram Centre , Langnes, 9296 Troms\u00f8 ,","place":["Norway"]}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7369-9196","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Eugene J","family":"Murphy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"British Antarctic Survey , Cambridge CB3 0ET ,","place":["United Kingdom"]}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7368-8086","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Roshni C","family":"Subramaniam","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Marine Sociology, University of Tasmania , Hobart, Tasmania 7001 ,","place":["Australia"]},{"name":"CSIRO Environment , Hobart, Tasmania 7004 ,","place":["Australia"]},{"name":"Sydney Institute of Marine Science , Sydney, New South Wales 2088 ,","place":["Australia"]}]},{"given":"Sally","family":"Thorpe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"British Antarctic 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