{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,27]],"date-time":"2026-03-27T19:14:23Z","timestamp":1774638863790,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":41,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"8","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2010,11,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Solari, A. P., Santamar\u00eda, M. T. G., Borges, M. F., Santos, A. M. P., Mendes, H., Balguer\u00edas, E., D\u00edaz Cordero, J. A., Castro, J. J., and Bas, C. 2010. On the dynamics of Sardina pilchardus: orbits of stability and environmental forcing. \u2013 ICES Journal of Marine Science, 67: 1565\u20131573. The dynamics of Sardina pilchardus in Iberian upwelling are examined. Spawning-stock biomass (SSB), recruitment (R), and production (R\/SSB) data for the years 1978\u20132006 are analysed in relation to the upwelling index (UPW) and sea surface temperature (SST). The population oscillates in two relatively stable orbits (identified by multiresolution decomposition of the recruitment series) because the external forcing (UPW and SST) are the inverse of each other and the synchrony is lost between the two external variables, R and R\/SSB as they shift towards steep, negative (depensatory) trends. Such mechanics may have induced recruitment failures and significant decreases in abundance of Iberian sardine. The relationships are assumed to validate a complex and dynamic continuum (multiple orbits of stability) and an alternative variable-carrying-capacity population model. Radial systems with two orbits of stability are proposed for the R\/SSB and S\/SSB (where S is the stock size) relationships. Results are discussed in relation to classical and alternative SR models to address stock rehabilitation and fishing mortality issues as the population shifts towards low recruitment and abundance, and critical factors to consider in developing exploitation strategies for systems with multiple orbits of stability are discussed.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1093\/icesjms\/fsq107","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2010,8,18]],"date-time":"2010-08-18T01:10:04Z","timestamp":1282093804000},"page":"1565-1573","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["On the dynamics of Sardina pilchardus: orbits of stability and environmental forcing"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"67","author":[{"given":"A. P.","family":"Solari","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto Espa\u00f1ol de Oceanograf\u00eda (IEO), Centro Oceanogr\u00e1fico de Canarias, Calle General Guti\u00e9rrez 4, 38003 Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Islas Canarias, Spain"}]},{"given":"M. T. G.","family":"Santamar\u00eda","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto Espa\u00f1ol de Oceanograf\u00eda (IEO), Centro Oceanogr\u00e1fico de Canarias, Calle General Guti\u00e9rrez 4, 38003 Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Islas Canarias, Spain"}]},{"given":"M. F.","family":"Borges","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Portuguese National Institute of Fisheries and Marine Research (IPIMAR), Avenida de Bras\u00edlia, 1449-006 Lisboa, Portugal"}]},{"given":"A. M. P.","family":"Santos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Portuguese National Institute of Fisheries and Marine Research (IPIMAR), Avenida de Bras\u00edlia, 1449-006 Lisboa, Portugal"}]},{"given":"H.","family":"Mendes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Portuguese National Institute of Fisheries and Marine Research (IPIMAR), Avenida de Bras\u00edlia, 1449-006 Lisboa, Portugal"}]},{"given":"E.","family":"Balguer\u00edas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto Espa\u00f1ol de Oceanograf\u00eda (IEO), Centro Oceanogr\u00e1fico de Canarias, Calle General Guti\u00e9rrez 4, 38003 Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Islas Canarias, Spain"}]},{"given":"J. A.","family":"D\u00edaz Cordero","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto Espa\u00f1ol de Oceanograf\u00eda (IEO), Centro Oceanogr\u00e1fico de Canarias, Calle General Guti\u00e9rrez 4, 38003 Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Islas Canarias, Spain"}]},{"given":"J. J.","family":"Castro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology, University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria (ULPGC), PO Box 550, 35080 Las Palmas, Spain"}]},{"given":"C.","family":"Bas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Marine Science (ICM), CSIC, Paseo Mar\u00edtimo de la Barceloneta 37\u201349, 08003 Barcelona, Spain"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2010,8,17]]},"reference":[{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C1","article-title":"Patterns in the Ocean. Ocean Processes and Marine Population Dynamics","author":"Bakun","year":"1996"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"251","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pocean.2009.07.027","article-title":"Habitat expansion and contraction in anchovy and sardine populations","volume":"83","author":"Barange","year":"2009","journal-title":"Progress in Oceanography"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1083","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(1987)115<1083:CSAPOL>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns","volume":"115","author":"Barnston","year":"1987","journal-title":"Monthly Weather Review"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C4","first-page":"157","article-title":"Considerations over a new recruitment model for exploited fish populations","volume":"68","author":"Bas","year":"1999","journal-title":"Royal Academy of Sciences, Barcelona"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C5","first-page":"533","article-title":"On the dynamics of exploited fish populations","author":"Beverton","year":"1957"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"235","DOI":"10.3989\/scimar.2003.67s1235","article-title":"Sardine regime shifts off Portugal: a time series analysis of catches and wind conditions","volume":"67(Suppl. 1)","author":"Borges","year":"2003","journal-title":"Scientia Marina"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"217","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1075880","article-title":"From anchovies to sardines and back: multidecadal change in the Pacific Ocean","volume":"299","author":"Chavez","year":"2003","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C8","article-title":"Mathematical Bioeconomics: the Optimal Management of Renewable Resources","author":"Clark","year":"1976"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C9","unstructured":"Climate Research Unit. 2009 http:\/\/www.cru.uea.ac.uk\/cru\/data\/nao\/"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"670","DOI":"10.1139\/f89-086","article-title":"Optimal environmental window and pelagic fish recruitment success in upwelling areas","volume":"46","author":"Cury","year":"1989","journal-title":"Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"57","DOI":"10.1016\/0304-3800(88)90073-7","article-title":"Strategies and difficulties of applying models to aquatic populations food webs","volume":"43","author":"De Angelis","year":"1988","journal-title":"Ecological Modelling"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"247","DOI":"10.1006\/jmsc.1993.1027","article-title":"Recruitment in randomly varying environments","volume":"50","author":"Fogarty","year":"1993","journal-title":"ICES Journal of Marine Science"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"264","DOI":"10.1093\/icesjms\/10.3.264","article-title":"Modern theory of exploiting a fishery application to North Sea trawling","volume":"10","author":"Graham","year":"1935","journal-title":"Journal du Conseil Permanent International pour l'Exploration de la Mer"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C14","first-page":"227","article-title":"Fluctuations in the great fisheries of northern Europe, viewed in the light of biologic research","volume":"1","author":"Hjort","year":"1914","journal-title":"Rapports et Proc\u00e8s-Verbaux des R\u00e9unions du Conseil Permanent International pour l'Exploration de la Mer"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5","DOI":"10.1093\/icesjms\/1.1.5","article-title":"Fluctuations in the year classes of important food fishes","volume":"1","author":"Hjort","year":"1926","journal-title":"Journal du Conseil Permanent International pour l'Exploration de la Mer"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"102","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2419.2008.00498.x","article-title":"Time series analyses reveal transient relationships between abundance of larval anchovy and environmental variables in the coastal waters southwest of Taiwan","volume":"18","author":"Hsieh","year":"2009","journal-title":"Fisheries Oceanography"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"676","DOI":"10.1126\/science.269.5224.676","article-title":"Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation and relationships to regional temperature and precipitation","volume":"269","author":"Hurrell","year":"1995","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C18","article-title":"Report of the Working Group on the assessment of Mackerel, Horse Mackerel, Sardine and Anchovy","author":"ICES.","year":"2007"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C19","unstructured":"ICOADS\/NOAA. 2007 http:\/\/www.cdc.noaa.gov\/"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Iselin C. O'C. Theory concerning the causes and results of the long-period variations in the strength of the Gulf Stream 1938 http:\/\/dlaweb.whoi.edu\/archives.html","DOI":"10.1029\/TR019i001p00243"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C21","article-title":"Preliminary report on long-period variations in the transport of the Gulf Stream system. Papers in Physical Oceanography and Meteorology published by Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)","author":"Iselin","year":"1940"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C22","first-page":"491","article-title":"Why do some pelagic fishes have wide fluctuations in their numbers? Biological basis of fluctuation from the viewpoint of evolutionary ecology","volume-title":"Proceedings of the Expert Consultation to Examine Changes in Abundance and Species Composition of Neritic Fish Resources, San Jos\u00e9, Costa Rica, 18\u201329 April 1983","author":"Kawasaki","year":"1983"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"115","DOI":"10.1016\/S0165-7836(98)00131-3","article-title":"Long-term climate change and main commercial fish production in the Atlantic and Pacific","volume":"37","author":"Klyashtorin","year":"1998","journal-title":"Fisheries Research"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C24","article-title":"Cyclic Climate Changes and Fish Productivity","author":"Klyashtorin","year":"2007"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"287","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2419.2009.00511.x","article-title":"Environmental control of the recruitment of sardines (Sardina pilchardus) over the western Saharan shelf between 1995 and 2002: a coupled physical\/biogeochemical modelling experiment","volume":"18","author":"Machu","year":"2009","journal-title":"Fisheries Oceanography"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1213","DOI":"10.4319\/lo.2005.50.4.1213","article-title":"North Atlantic climate and northwestern Mediterranean plankton variability","volume":"50","author":"Molinero","year":"2005","journal-title":"Limnology and Oceanography"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C27","unstructured":"NOAA. Data on the East Atlantic (EA) Pattern 2009 http:\/\/www.cpc.noaa.gov\/data\/teledoc\/ea.shtml"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C28","first-page":"48","article-title":"The yearly immigration of young place into Limfjorden from the German sea","author":"Petersen","year":"1896"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"L22601","DOI":"10.1029\/2009GL040504","article-title":"Importance of the mesoscale in the decadal changes observed in the northern Canary upwelling system","volume":"36","author":"Relvas","year":"2009","journal-title":"Geophysical Research Letters"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"559","DOI":"10.1139\/f54-039","article-title":"Stock and recruitment","volume":"11","author":"Ricker","year":"1954","journal-title":"Journal of the Fisheries Research Board of Canada"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C31","first-page":"31","article-title":"Climatic changes in the Arctic in relation to plants and animals","volume":"125","author":"Rollefsen","year":"1948","journal-title":"Rapports et Proc\u00e8s-Verbaux des R\u00e9unions du Conseil Permanent International pour l'Exploration de la Mer"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C32","first-page":"7","article-title":"An elementary treatment of the overfishing problem","volume":"110","author":"Russell","year":"1939","journal-title":"Rapports et Proc\u00e8s-Verbaux des R\u00e9unions du Conseil Permanent International pour l'Exploration de la Mer"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C33","article-title":"S+ Wavelets Module","author":"S+ Wavelets.","year":"2003"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"289","DOI":"10.2989\/025776199784125962","article-title":"Worldwide large-scale fluctuations of sardine and anchovy populations","volume":"21","author":"Schwartzlose","year":"1999","journal-title":"South African Journal of Marine Science"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C35","first-page":"75","article-title":"Future climate change and regional fisheries: a collaborative analysis","author":"Sharp","year":"2003"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C36","first-page":"1177","article-title":"Modelling fisheries: what was the question?","volume-title":"Proceedings of the Expert Consultation to Examine Changes in Abundance and Species Composition of Neritic Fish Resources, San Jose, Costa Rica, 18\u201329 April 1983","author":"Sharp","year":"1983"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"67","DOI":"10.1093\/icesjms\/40.1.67","article-title":"A versatile new stock\u2013recruitment relationship for fisheries, and the construction of sustainable yield curves","volume":"40","author":"Shepherd","year":"1982","journal-title":"Journal du Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C38","article-title":"New non-linear model for the study and exploitation of fishery resources","author":"Solari","year":"2008"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C39","first-page":"183","article-title":"On skipjack tuna dynamics: similarity at several scales","volume-title":"Handbook of Scaling Methods in Aquatic Ecology. 1. Measurement, Analysis, Simulation","author":"Solari","year":"2003"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"427","DOI":"10.1006\/jmsc.1996.0193","article-title":"Stock and recruitment in Baltic cod (Gadus morhua): a new, non-linear approach","volume":"54","author":"Solari","year":"1997","journal-title":"ICES Journal of Marine Science"},{"key":"2019081212263419000_FSQ107C41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"517","DOI":"10.1016\/S0079-1946(98)00064-0","article-title":"ICOADS Release 2 data and metadata enhancements for improvements of marine surface flux fields","volume":"23","author":"Woodruff","year":"1998","journal-title":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth"}],"container-title":["ICES Journal of Marine Science"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/academic.oup.com\/icesjms\/article-pdf\/67\/8\/1565\/29139774\/fsq107.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,24]],"date-time":"2025-02-24T18:49:31Z","timestamp":1740422971000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/icesjms\/article\/67\/8\/1565\/608088"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2010,8,17]]},"references-count":41,"journal-issue":{"issue":"8","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2010,8,17]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2010,11,1]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/icesjms\/fsq107","relation":{},"ISSN":["1095-9289","1054-3139"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1095-9289","type":"electronic"},{"value":"1054-3139","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published-other":{"date-parts":[[2010,11]]},"published":{"date-parts":[[2010,8,17]]}}}