{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,4]],"date-time":"2025-11-04T15:50:32Z","timestamp":1762271432535,"version":"3.37.3"},"reference-count":30,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"3","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2010]]},"DOI":"10.1093\/poq\/nfq019","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2010,5,14]],"date-time":"2010-05-14T02:31:39Z","timestamp":1273804299000},"page":"433-459","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":30,"title":["Probabilistic Polling And Voting In The 2008 Presidential Election"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"74","author":[{"given":"Adeline","family":"Delavande","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Charles F.","family":"Manski","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2010,5,13]]},"reference":[{"key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref1","first-page":"479","article-title":"What Leads to Voting Overreports? Contrasts of Overreports to Validated Voters and Admitted Nonvoters in the American National Election Studies","volume":"17","author":"Belli","year":"2001","journal-title":"Journal of Official Statistics"},{"volume-title":"Improving Interview Method and Questionnaire Design","year":"1979","author":"Bradburn","key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref2"},{"key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1150","DOI":"10.2307\/2960485","article-title":"Deterministic and Probabilistic Voting Models","volume":"41","author":"Burden","year":"1997","journal-title":"American Journal of Political Science"},{"volume-title":"The General Social Surveys, 1972\u20131994, Cumulative File","year":"1994","author":"Davis","key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref4"},{"journal-title":"Journal of Development Economics","article-title":"Measuring Subjective Expectations in Developing Countries: A Critical Review and New Evidence","author":"Delavande","key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref5"},{"key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"866","DOI":"10.1093\/poq\/nfn062","article-title":"Eliciting Subjective Probabilities in Internet Surveys","volume":"72","author":"Delavande","year":"2008","journal-title":"Public Opinion Quarterly"},{"key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"261","DOI":"10.1086\/297795","article-title":"Perceptions of Economic Insecurity: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations","volume":"6","author":"Dominitz","year":"1997","journal-title":"Public Opinion Quarterly"},{"key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"855","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1997.10474041","article-title":"Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations","volume":"92","author":"Dominitz","year":"1997","journal-title":"Journal of the American Statistical Association"},{"key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"51","DOI":"10.1257\/0895330041371303","article-title":"How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence?","volume":"18","author":"Dominitz","year":"2004","journal-title":"Journal of Economic Perspectives"},{"key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"369","DOI":"10.1162\/jeea.2007.5.2-3.369","article-title":"Expected Equity Returns and Portfolio Choice: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study","volume":"5","author":"Dominitz","year":"2007","journal-title":"Journal of the European Economic Association"},{"key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref11","first-page":"230","article-title":"Who Are Youth At-Risk?: Expectations Evidence in the NLSY-97","volume-title":"Social Awakenings: Adolescents\u2019 Behavior as Adulthood Approaches","author":"Dominitz","year":"2001"},{"key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"588","DOI":"10.1093\/poq\/nfh041","article-title":"Likely (and Unlikely) Voters and the Assessment of Campaign Dynamics","volume":"68","author":"Erikson","year":"2004","journal-title":"Public Opinion Quarterly"},{"key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"189","DOI":"10.1086\/317762","article-title":"Teen Expectations for Significant Life Events","volume":"64","author":"Fischhoff","year":"2000","journal-title":"Public Opinion Quarterly"},{"key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"361","DOI":"10.1177\/147078539303500405","article-title":"A New Method of Predicting Voting Behavior","volume":"35","author":"Hoek","year":"1993","journal-title":"Journal of the Market Research Society"},{"key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref15","first-page":"1","article-title":"Factors Affecting Poll Accuracy: An Analysis of Undecided Respondents","volume":"8","author":"Hoek","year":"1997","journal-title":"Marketing Bulletin"},{"key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"543","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.economics.050708.142955","article-title":"Subjective Probabilities in Household Surveys","volume":"1","author":"Hurd","year":"2009","journal-title":"Annual Review of Economics"},{"key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S268","DOI":"10.2307\/146285","article-title":"Evaluation of the Subjective Probabilities of Survival in the Health and Retirement Study","volume":"30","author":"Hurd","year":"1995","journal-title":"Journal of Human Resources"},{"key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"966","DOI":"10.1111\/1468-0297.00065","article-title":"The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival","volume":"112","author":"Hurd","year":"2002","journal-title":"Economic Journal"},{"key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"761","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.752","article-title":"The Effects of Subjective Survival on Retirement and Social Security Claiming","volume":"19","author":"Hurd","year":"2004","journal-title":"Journal of Applied Econometrics"},{"key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"440","DOI":"10.1257\/000282807780323505","article-title":"Individual Perceptions of the Criminal Justice System","volume":"97","author":"Lochner","year":"2007","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"91","DOI":"10.1016\/0261-3794(90)90002-P","article-title":"Vote Probabilities","volume":"9","author":"Maas","year":"1990","journal-title":"Electoral Studies"},{"key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"934","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1990.10474964","article-title":"The Use of Intentions Data to Predict Behavior: A Best Case Analysis","volume":"85","author":"Manski","year":"1990","journal-title":"Journal of the American Statistical Association"},{"key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref23","article-title":"Why Polls Are Fickle","author":"Manski","year":"2000","journal-title":"New York Times"},{"key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"251","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780195149333.003.0015","article-title":"Probabilistic Polling","volume-title":"Navigating Public Opinion: Polls, Policy, and the Future of American Democracy","author":"Manski","year":"2002"},{"key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1329","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1468-0262.2004.00537.x","article-title":"Measuring Expectations","volume":"72","author":"Manski","year":"2004","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"447","DOI":"10.2307\/146388","article-title":"Worker Perceptions of Job Insecurity in the Mid-1990s: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations","volume":"35","author":"Manski","year":"2000","journal-title":"Journal of Human Resources"},{"key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"38","DOI":"10.2307\/447618","article-title":"Rationality and Voting: A Downsian Analysis of the 1972 Election","volume":"33","author":"Meier","year":"1980","journal-title":"Western Political Quarterly"},{"key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"21","DOI":"10.1177\/1532673X7900700102","article-title":"Issue Voting: An Empirical Examination of Individually Necessary and Jointly Sufficient Conditions","volume":"7","author":"Meier","year":"1979","journal-title":"American Political Quarterly"},{"key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"275","DOI":"10.1086\/297751","article-title":"Asking Sensitive Questions: The Impact of Data Collection Mode, Question Format, and Question Context","volume":"60","author":"Tourangeau","year":"1996","journal-title":"Public Opinion Quarterly"},{"key":"key\n\t\t\t\t20170515163755_ref30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"642","DOI":"10.1093\/poq\/nfi061","article-title":"The Accuracy of the National Preelection Polls in the 2004 Presidential Election","volume":"69","author":"Traugott","year":"2005","journal-title":"Public Opinion Quarterly"}],"container-title":["Public Opinion Quarterly"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/academic.oup.com\/poq\/article-pdf\/74\/3\/433\/17120319\/nfq019.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,20]],"date-time":"2025-02-20T21:37:41Z","timestamp":1740087461000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/poq\/article-lookup\/doi\/10.1093\/poq\/nfq019"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2010]]},"references-count":30,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2010,5,13]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2010]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/poq\/nfq019","relation":{},"ISSN":["1537-5331","0033-362X"],"issn-type":[{"type":"electronic","value":"1537-5331"},{"type":"print","value":"0033-362X"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2010]]}}}