{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,22]],"date-time":"2026-09-22T15:13:23Z","timestamp":1790090003204,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":64,"publisher":"Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)","issue":"1","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2010,1]]},"DOI":"10.1097\/ede.0b013e3181c30fb2","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2009,12,9]],"date-time":"2009-12-09T03:31:00Z","timestamp":1260329460000},"page":"128-138","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4615,"title":["Assessing the Performance of Prediction Models"],"prefix":"10.1097","volume":"21","author":[{"given":"Ewout W.","family":"Steyerberg","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Andrew J.","family":"Vickers","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nancy R.","family":"Cook","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Thomas","family":"Gerds","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mithat","family":"Gonen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nancy","family":"Obuchowski","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael J.","family":"Pencina","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael W.","family":"Kattan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"276","reference":[{"key":"R1-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4757-3462-1","article-title":"Regression Modeling Strategies: With Applications to Linear Models, Logistic Regression, and Survival Analysis.","author":"Harrell","year":"2001"},{"key":"R2-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"882","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwh101","article-title":"Limitations of the odds ratio in gauging the performance of a diagnostic, prognostic, or screening marker.","volume":"159","author":"Pepe","year":"2004","journal-title":"Am J Epidemiol"},{"key":"R3-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"457","DOI":"10.1002\/bimj.200810443","article-title":"The performance of risk prediction models.","volume":"50","author":"Gerds","year":"2008","journal-title":"Biom J"},{"key":"R4-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"965","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1097-0258(19970515)16:9<965::AID-SIM509>3.0.CO;2-O","article-title":"A comparison of goodness-of-fit tests for the logistic regression model.","volume":"16","author":"Hosmer","year":"1997","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"R5-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.1148\/radiol.2291010898","article-title":"Receiver operating characteristic curves and their use in radiology.","volume":"229","author":"Obuchowski","year":"2003","journal-title":"Radiology"},{"key":"R6-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"92","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0006-341X.2005.030814.x","article-title":"Survival model predictive accuracy and ROC curves.","volume":"61","author":"Heagerty","year":"2005","journal-title":"Biometrics"},{"key":"R7-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"965","DOI":"10.1093\/biomet\/92.4.965","article-title":"Concordance probability and discriminatory power in proportional hazards regression.","volume":"92","author":"Gonen","year":"2005","journal-title":"Biometrika"},{"key":"R8-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"928","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCULATIONAHA.106.672402","article-title":"Use and misuse of the receiver operating characteristic curve in risk prediction.","volume":"115","author":"Cook","year":"2007","journal-title":"Circulation"},{"key":"R9-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"157","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.2929","article-title":"Evaluating the added predictive ability of a new marker: from area under the ROC curve to reclassification and beyond.","volume":"27","author":"Pencina","year":"2008","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"R11-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"207","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.3106","article-title":"Comments on \u2018Integrated discrimination and net reclassification improvements-Practical advice.\u2019","volume":"27","author":"Pencina","year":"2008","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"R12-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"751","DOI":"10.7326\/0003-4819-149-10-200811180-00009","article-title":"Assessing the value of risk predictions by using risk stratification tables.","volume":"149","author":"Janes","year":"2008","journal-title":"Ann Intern Med"},{"key":"R13-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2304","DOI":"10.1001\/archinte.168.21.2304","article-title":"Assessing new biomarkers and predictive models for use in clinical practice: a clinician's guide.","volume":"168","author":"McGeechan","year":"2008","journal-title":"Arch Intern Med"},{"key":"R14-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"795","DOI":"10.7326\/0003-4819-150-11-200906020-00007","article-title":"Advances in measuring the effect of individual predictors of cardiovascular risk: the role of reclassification measures.","volume":"150","author":"Cook","year":"2009","journal-title":"Ann Intern Med"},{"key":"R15-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"565","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X06295361","article-title":"Decision curve analysis: a novel method for evaluating prediction models.","volume":"26","author":"Vickers","year":"2006","journal-title":"Med Decis Making"},{"key":"R16-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"146","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X07312725","article-title":"Decision curve analysis: a discussion.","volume":"28","author":"Steyerberg","year":"2008","journal-title":"Med Decis Making"},{"key":"R17-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"453","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1097-0258(20000229)19:4<453::AID-SIM350>3.0.CO;2-5","article-title":"What do we mean by validating a prognostic model?","volume":"19","author":"Altman","year":"2000","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"R18-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"515","DOI":"10.7326\/0003-4819-130-6-199903160-00016","article-title":"Assessing the generalizability of prognostic information.","volume":"130","author":"Justice","year":"1999","journal-title":"Ann Intern Med"},{"key":"R19-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"774","DOI":"10.1016\/S0895-4356(01)00341-9","article-title":"Internal validation of predictive models: efficiency of some procedures for logistic regression analysis.","volume":"54","author":"Steyerberg","year":"2001","journal-title":"J Clin Epidemiol"},{"key":"R20-22-20210207","article-title":"Clinical Prediction Models: A Practical Approach to Development, Validation, and Updating.","author":"Steyerberg","year":"2009"},{"key":"R21-22-20210207","first-page":"219","article-title":"A checklist for evaluating reports of expression profiling for treatment selection.","volume":"4","author":"Simon","year":"2006","journal-title":"Clin Adv Hematol Oncol"},{"key":"R22-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"640","DOI":"10.1097\/EDE.0b013e31818131e7","article-title":"Why most discovered true associations are inflated.","volume":"19","author":"Ioannidis","year":"2008","journal-title":"Epidemiology"},{"key":"R23-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1768","DOI":"10.1093\/bioinformatics\/btm232","article-title":"Assessment of survival prediction models based on microarray data.","volume":"23","author":"Schumacher","year":"2007","journal-title":"Bioinformatics"},{"key":"R24-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"30","DOI":"10.1186\/1745-6215-7-30","article-title":"Selecting patients for randomized trials: a systematic approach based on risk group.","volume":"7","author":"Vickers","year":"2006","journal-title":"Trials"},{"key":"R25-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"454","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2003.09.014","article-title":"Covariate adjustment in randomized controlled trials with dichotomous outcomes increases statistical power and reduces sample size requirements.","volume":"57","author":"Hernandez","year":"2004","journal-title":"J Clin Epidemiol"},{"key":"R26-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"41","DOI":"10.1016\/j.annepidem.2005.09.007","article-title":"Randomized controlled trials with time-to-event outcomes: how much does prespecified covariate adjustment increase power?","volume":"16","author":"Hernandez","year":"2006","journal-title":"Ann Epidemiol"},{"key":"R27-22-20210207","article-title":"Risk Adjustment for Measuring Health Care Outcomes. 3rd ed.","author":"Iezzoni","year":"2003"},{"key":"R28-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"634","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/95.9.634","article-title":"Judging new markers by their ability to improve predictive accuracy.","volume":"95","author":"Kattan","year":"2003","journal-title":"J Natl Cancer Inst"},{"key":"R29-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"227","DOI":"10.1055\/s-0038-1636442","article-title":"The measurement of performance in probabilistic diagnosis. Part II: Trustworthiness of the exact values of the diagnostic probabilities.","volume":"17","author":"Hilden","year":"1978","journal-title":"Methods Inf Med"},{"key":"R30-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"49","DOI":"10.1177\/096228029200100104","article-title":"Statistical methods in diagnosis.","volume":"1","author":"Hand","year":"1992","journal-title":"Stat Methods Med Res"},{"key":"R31-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"80","DOI":"10.1055\/s-0038-1635297","article-title":"The measurement of performance in probabilistic diagnosis: Part IV. Utility considerations in therapeutics and prognostics.","volume":"20","author":"Habbema","year":"1981","journal-title":"Methods Inf Med"},{"key":"R32-22-20210207","article-title":"Regression Methods in Biostatistics: Linear, Logistic, Survival, and Repeated Measures Models (Statistics for Biology and Health).","author":"Vittinghoff","year":"2005"},{"key":"R33-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"691","DOI":"10.1093\/biomet\/78.3.691","article-title":"A note on a general definition of the coefficient of determination.","volume":"78","author":"Nagelkerke","year":"1991","journal-title":"Biometrika"},{"key":"R34-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:VOFEIT>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability.","volume":"78","author":"Brier","year":"1950","journal-title":"Mon Wea Rev"},{"key":"R35-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1383","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.2300","article-title":"Properties of R2 statistics for logistic regression.","volume":"25","author":"Hu","year":"2006","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"R36-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"564","DOI":"10.1055\/s-0038-1634384","article-title":"How to assess prognostic models for survival data: a case study in oncology.","volume":"42","author":"Schumacher","year":"2003","journal-title":"Methods Inf Med"},{"key":"R37-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1029","DOI":"10.1002\/bimj.200610301","article-title":"Consistent estimation of the expected Brier score in general survival models with right-censored event times.","volume":"48","author":"Gerds","year":"2006","journal-title":"Biom J"},{"key":"R38-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3474","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.2299","article-title":"Estimation of time-dependent area under the ROC curve for long-term risk prediction.","volume":"25","author":"Chambless","year":"2006","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"R39-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"132","DOI":"10.1016\/0030-5073(82)90237-9","article-title":"External correspondence: decomposition of the mean probability score.","volume":"30","author":"Yates","year":"1982","journal-title":"Organ Behav Hum Perform"},{"key":"R40-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"49","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X9301300107","article-title":"Validation of probabilistic predictions.","volume":"13","author":"Miller","year":"1993","journal-title":"Med Decis Making"},{"key":"R41-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"562","DOI":"10.1093\/biomet\/45.3-4.562","article-title":"Two further applications of a model for binary regression.","volume":"45","author":"Cox","year":"1958","journal-title":"Biometrika"},{"key":"R42-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"311","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2517-6161.1983.tb01258.x","article-title":"Regression, prediction and shrinkage.","volume":"45","author":"Copas","year":"1983","journal-title":"J R Stat Soc Ser B"},{"key":"R43-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1303","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.4780091109","article-title":"Predictive value of statistical models.","volume":"9","author":"van Houwelingen","year":"1990","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"R44-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"17","DOI":"10.1373\/clinchem.2007.096529","article-title":"Statistical evaluation of prognostic versus diagnostic models: beyond the ROC curve.","volume":"54","author":"Cook","year":"2008","journal-title":"Clin Chem"},{"key":"R45-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"362","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwm305","article-title":"Integrating the predictiveness of a marker with its performance as a classifier.","volume":"167","author":"Pepe","year":"2008","journal-title":"Am J Epidemiol"},{"key":"R46-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"32","DOI":"10.1002\/1097-0142(1950)3:1<32::AID-CNCR2820030106>3.0.CO;2-3","article-title":"Index for rating diagnostic tests.","volume":"3","author":"Youden","year":"1950","journal-title":"Cancer"},{"key":"R47-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1109","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM198005153022003","article-title":"The threshold approach to clinical decision making.","volume":"302","author":"Pauker","year":"1980","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"key":"R48-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"453","DOI":"10.1126\/science.ns-4.93.453-a","article-title":"The numerical measure of success of predictions.","volume":"4","author":"Peirce","year":"1884","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"R49-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1177","DOI":"10.1200\/JCO.1995.13.5.1177","article-title":"Prediction of residual retroperitoneal mass histology after chemotherapy for metastatic nonseminomatous germ cell tumor: multivariate analysis of individual patient data from six study groups.","volume":"13","author":"Steyerberg","year":"1995","journal-title":"J Clin Oncol"},{"key":"R50-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3847","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.915","article-title":"Residual mass histology in testicular cancer: development and validation of a clinical prediction rule.","volume":"20","author":"Steyerberg","year":"2001","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"R51-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"84","DOI":"10.1097\/00005392-200101000-00021","article-title":"Validation of a prediction model and its predictors for the histology of residual masses in nonseminomatous testicular cancer.","volume":"165","author":"Vergouwe","year":"2001","journal-title":"J Urol"},{"key":"R52-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1331","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1097-0142(19990315)85:6<1331::AID-CNCR16>3.0.CO;2-I","article-title":"Resection of small, residual retroperitoneal masses after chemotherapy for nonseminomatous testicular cancer: a decision analysis.","volume":"85","author":"Steyerberg","year":"1999","journal-title":"Cancer"},{"key":"R53-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1467","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM198112103052409","article-title":"The toss-up.","volume":"305","author":"Pauker","year":"1981","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"key":"R54-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2019","DOI":"10.1093\/humrep\/deh365","article-title":"Two new prediction rules for spontaneous pregnancy leading to live birth among subfertile couples, based on the synthesis of three previous models.","volume":"19","author":"Hunault","year":"2004","journal-title":"Hum Reprod"},{"key":"R55-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"491","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2006.08.011","article-title":"External validation of prognostic models for critically ill patients required substantial sample sizes.","volume":"60","author":"Peek","year":"2007","journal-title":"J Clin Epidemiol"},{"key":"R56-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"199","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.2995","article-title":"The need for reorientation toward cost-effective prediction: comments on \u2018Evaluating the added predictive ability of a new marker: From area under the ROC curve to reclassification and beyond\u2019 by M. J. Pencina et al. Statistics in Medicine (DOI: 10.1002\/sim. 2929).","volume":"27","author":"Greenland","year":"2008","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"R57-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"96","DOI":"10.1053\/suro.2002.32521","article-title":"Validity of prognostic models: when is a model clinically useful?","volume":"20","author":"Vergouwe","year":"2002","journal-title":"Semin Urol Oncol"},{"key":"R58-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"211","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM197507312930501","article-title":"Primer on certain elements of medical decision making.","volume":"293","author":"McNeil","year":"1975","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"key":"R59-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"95","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X9101100204","article-title":"The area under the ROC curve and its competitors.","volume":"11","author":"Hilden","year":"1991","journal-title":"Med Decis Making"},{"key":"R60-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"227","DOI":"10.1093\/biostatistics\/kxi005","article-title":"On criteria for evaluating models of absolute risk.","volume":"6","author":"Gail","year":"2005","journal-title":"Biostatistics"},{"key":"R61-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1586","DOI":"10.1016\/j.athoracsur.2006.11.044","article-title":"Actual and actuarial probabilities of competing risks: apples and lemons.","volume":"83","author":"Grunkemeier","year":"2007","journal-title":"Ann Thorac Surg"},{"key":"R62-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"496","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1999.10474144","article-title":"A proportional hazards model for the subdistribution of a competing risk.","volume":"94","author":"Fine","year":"1999","journal-title":"JASA"},{"key":"R63-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"209","DOI":"10.2307\/2529721","article-title":"A review and critique of some models used in competing risk analysis.","volume":"31","author":"Gail","year":"1975","journal-title":"Biometrics"},{"key":"R64-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2567","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.1844","article-title":"Validation and updating of predictive logistic regression models: a study on sample size and shrinkage.","volume":"23","author":"Steyerberg","year":"2004","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"R65-22-20210207","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"201","DOI":"10.7326\/0003-4819-144-3-200602070-00009","article-title":"Translating clinical research into clinical practice: impact of using prediction rules to make decisions.","volume":"144","author":"Reilly","year":"2006","journal-title":"Ann Intern Med"}],"container-title":["Epidemiology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.lww.com\/10.1097\/EDE.0b013e3181c30fb2","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,13]],"date-time":"2025-02-13T13:52:30Z","timestamp":1739454750000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.lww.com\/00001648-201001000-00022"}},"subtitle":["A Framework for Traditional and Novel Measures"],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2010,1]]},"references-count":64,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2010]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1097\/ede.0b013e3181c30fb2","relation":{},"ISSN":["1044-3983"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1044-3983","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2010,1]]}}}