{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,8]],"date-time":"2026-02-08T03:16:26Z","timestamp":1770520586909,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":41,"publisher":"Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,8,4]],"date-time":"2022-08-04T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1659571200000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["lww.com","ovid.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n            <jats:title>Background.<\/jats:title>\n            <jats:p>Recurrent membranous nephropathy (MN) posttransplantation affects 35% to 50% of kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) and accounts for 50% allograft loss 5 y after diagnosis. Predictive factors for recurrent MN may include HLA-D risk alleles, but other factors have not been explored with certainty.<\/jats:p>\n          <\/jats:sec>\n          <jats:sec>\n            <jats:title>Methods.<\/jats:title>\n            <jats:p>The Australian and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant registry was used to develop 3 prediction models for recurrent MN (Group Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator [LASSO], penalized Cox regression, and random forest), which were tuned using tenfold cross-validation in a derivation cohort with complete HLA data. KTRs with MN but incomplete HLA data formed the validation cohort. Model performance was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC).<\/jats:p>\n          <\/jats:sec>\n          <jats:sec>\n            <jats:title>Results.<\/jats:title>\n            <jats:p>One hundred ninety-nine KTRs with MN were included, and 25 (13%) had recurrent MN (median follow-up 5.9 y). The AUC-ROCs for Group LASSO, penalized Cox regression, and random forest models were 0.85 (95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.94), 0.91 (0.85-0.96), and 0.62 (0.57-0.69), respectively, in the derivation cohort, with moderate agreement in selected variables between the models (55%-70%). In their validation cohorts, the AUC-ROCs for Group LASSO and penalized Cox regression were 0.60 (0.49-0.70) and 0.73 (0.59-0.86), respectively. Variables of importance chosen by all models included recipient HLA-A2, donor HLA-DR12, donor-recipient HLA-B65, and HLA-DR12 match.<\/jats:p>\n          <\/jats:sec>\n          <jats:sec>\n            <jats:title>Conclusions.<\/jats:title>\n            <jats:p>A penalized Cox regression performed reasonably for predicting recurrent MN and was superior to Group LASSO and random forest models. These models highlighted the importance of donor-recipient HLA characteristics to recurrent MN, although validation in larger datasets is required.<\/jats:p>\n          <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1097\/txd.0000000000001357","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,8,9]],"date-time":"2022-08-09T03:03:11Z","timestamp":1660014191000},"page":"e1357","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1097\/lww.0000000000001000","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Predictive Models for Recurrent Membranous Nephropathy After Kidney Transplantation"],"prefix":"10.1097","volume":"8","author":[{"given":"Edmund Y. M.","family":"Chung","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Kidney Research, The Children\u2019s Hospital at Westmead, Westmead, NSW, Australia."}]},{"given":"Katrina","family":"Blazek","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Population Health, University of New South Wales, Kensington, NSW, Australia."}]},{"given":"Armando","family":"Teixeira-Pinto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW, Australia."}]},{"given":"Ankit","family":"Sharma","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Kidney Research, The Children\u2019s Hospital at Westmead, Westmead, NSW, Australia."},{"name":"Department of Renal Medicine, Westmead Hospital, Westmead, NSW, Australia."}]},{"given":"Siah","family":"Kim","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Kidney Research, The Children\u2019s Hospital at Westmead, Westmead, NSW, Australia."},{"name":"Department of Renal Medicine, Westmead Hospital, Westmead, NSW, Australia."}]},{"given":"Yingxin","family":"Lin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW, Australia."}]},{"given":"Karen","family":"Keung","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Renal Medicine, Prince of Wales Hospital, Randwick, NSW, Australia."}]},{"given":"Bhadran","family":"Bose","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Renal Medicine, Nepean Hospital, Kingswood, NSW, Australia."}]},{"given":"Lukas","family":"Kairaitis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Renal Medicine, Blacktown Hospital, Blacktown, NSW, Australia."}]},{"given":"Hugh","family":"McCarthy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Kidney Research, The Children\u2019s Hospital at Westmead, Westmead, NSW, Australia."},{"name":"Department of Renal Medicine, Sydney Children\u2019s Hospital, Randwick, NSW, Australia."}]},{"given":"Pierre","family":"Ronco","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Stephen I.","family":"Alexander","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Kidney Research, The Children\u2019s Hospital at Westmead, Westmead, NSW, Australia."}]},{"given":"Germaine","family":"Wong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Kidney Research, The Children\u2019s Hospital at Westmead, Westmead, NSW, Australia."},{"name":"School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW, Australia."},{"name":"Department of Renal Medicine, Westmead Hospital, Westmead, NSW, Australia."}]}],"member":"276","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,8,4]]},"reference":[{"key":"R1-20240805","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"289","DOI":"10.1016\/j.kint.2021.03.028","article-title":"A conceptual framework linking immunology, pathology, and clinical features in primary membranous 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