{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,30]],"date-time":"2026-06-30T17:18:37Z","timestamp":1782839917358,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":8,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2014,6,1]],"date-time":"2014-06-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1401580800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2014,6,1]],"date-time":"2014-06-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1401580800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["royalsocietypublishing.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Biol. Lett."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2014,6,30]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n            Infection thresholds, widely used in disease epidemiology, may operate on host abundance and, if present, on vector abundance. For wildlife populations, host and vector abundances often vary greatly across years and consequently the threshold may be crossed regularly, both up- and downward. Moreover, vector and host abundances may be interdependent, which may affect the infection dynamics. Theory predicts that if the relevant abundance, or combination of abundances, is above the threshold, then the infection is able to spread; if not, it is bound to fade out. In practice, though, the observed level of infection may depend more on past than on current abundances. Here, we study the temporal dynamics of plague (\n            <jats:italic>Yersinia pestis<\/jats:italic>\n            infection), its vector (flea) and its host (great gerbil) in the PreBalkhash region in Kazakhstan. We describe how host and vector abundances interact over time and how this interaction drives the dynamics of the system around the infection threshold, consequently affecting the proportion of plague-infected sectors. We also explore the importance of the interplay between biological and detectability delays in generating the observed dynamics.\n          <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rsbl.2014.0302","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2014,6,25]],"date-time":"2014-06-25T09:35:06Z","timestamp":1403688906000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":22,"title":["Plague epizootic cycles in Central Asia"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"10","author":[{"given":"Jonas","family":"Reijniers","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mike","family":"Begon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Integrative Biology, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Vladimir S.","family":"Ageyev","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Kazakh Scientific Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Herwig","family":"Leirs","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2014,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_3_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2343186"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2005.07.004"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2011.2210"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ento.50.071803.130337"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1095854"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature07053"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1461-0248.2012.01767.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_9_2","volume-title":"Plague and plague control in the Soviet Union","author":"Pollitzer R","year":"1966","unstructured":"Pollitzer, R. 1966 Plague and plague control in the Soviet Union. Bronx, NY: Fordham University."}],"container-title":["Biology Letters"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1098\/rsbl.2014.0302","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1098\/rsbl.2014.0302","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1098\/rsbl.2014.0302","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,29]],"date-time":"2025-04-29T13:09:32Z","timestamp":1745932172000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/10.1098\/rsbl.2014.0302"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2014,6]]},"references-count":8,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2014,6,30]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1098\/rsbl.2014.0302"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/rsbl.2014.0302","relation":{},"ISSN":["1744-9561","1744-957X"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1744-9561","type":"print"},{"value":"1744-957X","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2014,6]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2014-04-09","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2014-05-29","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2014-06-01","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"20140302"}}