{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,12]],"date-time":"2026-05-12T22:10:17Z","timestamp":1778623817971,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":25,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"12","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2006,10,11]],"date-time":"2006-10-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1160524800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/royalsociety.org\/journals\/ethics-policies\/data-sharing-mining\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["J. R. Soc. Interface."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2007,2,22]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    We propose a new stochastic framework for analysing the dynamics of the immunity response of wildlife hosts against a disease-causing agent. Our study is motivated by the need to analyse the monitoring time-series data covering the period from 1975 to 1995 on bacteriological and serological tests\u2014samples from great gerbils being the main host of\n                    <jats:italic>Yersinia pestis<\/jats:italic>\n                    in Kazakhstan. Based on a four-state continuous-time Markov chain, we derive a generalized nonlinear mixed-effect model for analysing the serological test data. The immune response of a host involves the production of antibodies in response to an antigen. Our analysis shows that great gerbils recovered from a plague infection are more likely to keep their antibodies to plague and survive throughout the summer-to-winter season than throughout the winter-to-summer season. Provided the seasonal mortality rates are similar (which seems to be the case based on a mortality analysis with abundance data), our finding indicates that the immune function of the sampled great gerbils is seasonal.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2006.0160","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2006,10,15]],"date-time":"2006-10-15T07:38:46Z","timestamp":1160897926000},"page":"57-64","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["Statistical analysis of the dynamics of antibody loss to a disease-causing agent: plague in natural populations of great gerbils as an example"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"4","author":[{"given":"Siyun","family":"Park","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics, Seoul National UniversitySillim-dong, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-742, South Korea"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Kung-Sik","family":"Chan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of IowaIowa City, IA 52242, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Hildegunn","family":"Viljugrein","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of OsloPO Box 1066 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Larissa","family":"Nekrassova","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"M. Aikimbaev's Kazakh Scientific Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases14 Kapalskaya Street, Almaty 480074, Republic of Kazakhstan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Bakhtiyar","family":"Suleimenov","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"M. Aikimbaev's Kazakh Scientific Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases14 Kapalskaya Street, Almaty 480074, Republic of Kazakhstan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Vladimir S","family":"Ageyev","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"M. Aikimbaev's Kazakh Scientific Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases14 Kapalskaya Street, Almaty 480074, Republic of Kazakhstan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Nikolay L","family":"Klassovskiy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"M. Aikimbaev's Kazakh Scientific Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases14 Kapalskaya Street, Almaty 480074, Republic of Kazakhstan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Sergey B","family":"Pole","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"M. Aikimbaev's Kazakh Scientific Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases14 Kapalskaya Street, Almaty 480074, Republic of Kazakhstan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Nils","family":"Chr. Stenseth","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of OsloPO Box 1066 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2006,10,11]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_2_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0408026101"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1202.050651"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_4_1","unstructured":"Bhattacharya R.N& Waymire E.C. 1990 Stochastic processes with applications. New York NY:Wiley."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_5_1","first-page":"207","article-title":"A generalized linear model for repeated ordered categorical response data","volume":"13","author":"Chan K.S","year":"2003","journal-title":"Stat. Sin"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_6_1","unstructured":"Cox D& Miller H. 1968 The theory of stochastic processes. London UK:Chapman and Hall."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1198\/1085711032697"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1095854"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_9_1","unstructured":"Dickmann O& Heesterbeek J.A.P. 2000 Mathematical epidemiology of infectious disease: model building analysis and interpretation. Chichester UK:Wiley."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0006-341X.2005.030536.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Grenfell B.T& Dobson A.P. 1995 Ecology of infectious diseases in natural populations. New York NY:Cambridge University Press.","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511629396"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1985.10478195"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_13_1","unstructured":"Kanatov Yu. V. 1974 Systems of serological tests using sensitized erythrocytes for detecting antigens and antibodies. Thesis of doctoral dissertation. Saratov. 36 [In Russian]."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1644\/1545-1542(2002)083<0478:EAPFAW>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_15_1","unstructured":"Korneyev G. A. & Karpov A. A. 1977 Dynamics of the sex and age structure of the large gerbil population. In Ecology and medical value of the gerbils of the USSR fauna. Materials of All-Union meeting. M pp. 144\u2013146."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_16_1","unstructured":"MacIntyre S. Knight S. D. & Fooks L. J. 2004 Structure assembly and applications of the polymeric F1 antigen of Yersinia pestis . In Yersinia molecular and cellular biology (ed. E. Carniel & B. J. Hinnebusch) 110 363\u2013407. Norfolk UK: Horizon Bioscience."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_17_1","first-page":"549","volume-title":"Rodents in desert environments","author":"Naumov N.P","year":"1975"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Nelson R.J Demas G.E Klein S.L& Kriegsfeld L.J. 2002 Seasonal patterns of stress immune function and disease. New York NY:Cambridge University Press.","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511546341"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/CMR.10.1.35"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_20_1","unstructured":"Pinheiro J.C& Bates D.M. 1995 Mixed effects models in S and S-Plus. New York NY:Springer."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_21_1","unstructured":"Pollizer R. 1966 Plague and plague control in the Soviet Union. New York NY:Fordham University Bronx."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0018-506X(02)00028-4"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_23_1","unstructured":"Rothschild V. E. 1978 Spatial structure of plague natural focus and methods of its study p. 192. Moscow Russia: Publishing House of Moscow University. [In Russian.]."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_24_1","unstructured":"Samia N. I. Chan K. S. & Stenseth N. C. In press. A generalized threshold mixed model for analyzing non-normal nonlinear time series: plague in Kazakhstan as an illustration. Biometrika ."},{"key":"e_1_3_2_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0602447103"},{"key":"e_1_3_2_26_1","unstructured":"Suleimenov B. M. Isin Zh. M. Atshabar B. B. Klassovskiy N. L. Kogay O. V. Kopbayev E. Sh. & Novikov G. S. 2001 Immunophysiological structure of acute plague epizootics. Quarantinable and Zoonotic Infections in Kazakhstan. Almaty 4 261\u2013266. [In Russian.]."}],"container-title":["Journal of The Royal Society Interface"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1098\/rsif.2006.0160","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1098\/rsif.2006.0160","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1098\/rsif.2006.0160","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,12]],"date-time":"2026-05-12T21:18:26Z","timestamp":1778620706000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/rsif\/article\/4\/12\/57-64\/65214"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2006,10,11]]},"references-count":25,"journal-issue":{"issue":"12","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2007,2,22]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1098\/rsif.2006.0160"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/rsif.2006.0160","relation":{},"ISSN":["1742-5689","1742-5662"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1742-5689","type":"print"},{"value":"1742-5662","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2006,10,11]]}}}