{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,2]],"date-time":"2024-09-02T17:11:36Z","timestamp":1725297096362},"reference-count":20,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"15","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2007,1,24]],"date-time":"2007-01-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1169596800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/royalsociety.org\/journals\/ethics-policies\/data-sharing-mining\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["J. R. Soc. Interface."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2007,8,22]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Plague surveillance programmes established in Kazakhstan, Central Asia, during the previous century, have generated large plague archives that have been used to parameterize an abundance threshold model for sylvatic plague in great gerbil (<jats:italic>Rhombomys opimus<\/jats:italic>) populations. Here, we assess the model using additional data from the same archives. Throughout the focus, population levels above the threshold were a necessary condition for an epizootic to occur. However, there were large numbers of occasions when an epizootic was not observed even though great gerbils were, and had been, abundant. We examine six hypotheses that could explain the resulting false positive predictions, namely (i) including end-of-outbreak data erroneously lowers the estimated threshold, (ii) too few gerbils were tested, (iii) plague becomes locally extinct, (iv) the abundance of fleas was too low, (v) the climate was unfavourable, and (vi) a high proportion of gerbils were resistant. Of these, separate thresholds, fleas and climate received some support but accounted for few false positives and can be disregarded as serious omissions from the model. Small sample size and local extinction received strong support and can account for most of the false positives. Host resistance received no support here but should be subject to more direct experimental testing.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2006.0208","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2007,1,26]],"date-time":"2007-01-26T18:32:38Z","timestamp":1169836358000},"page":"649-657","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":18,"title":["Empirical assessment of a threshold model for sylvatic plague"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"4","author":[{"given":"S","family":"Davis","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology, University of AntwerpGroenenborgerlaan 171, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"H","family":"Leirs","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology, University of AntwerpGroenenborgerlaan 171, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium"},{"name":"Danish Pest Infestation Laboratory, Skovbrynet 14DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"H","family":"Viljugrein","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of BiologyUniversity of Oslo, PO Box 1050, Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"N.Chr","family":"Stenseth","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of BiologyUniversity of Oslo, PO Box 1050, Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"L","family":"De Bruyn","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology, University of AntwerpGroenenborgerlaan 171, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium"},{"name":"Institute of Nature Conservation, Kliniekstraat 251070 Brussels, Belgium"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"N","family":"Klassovskiy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"M. Aikembaev's Kazakh Scientific Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, 14 Kapalskaya StreetAlmaty 480074, Republic of Kazakhstan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"V","family":"Ageyev","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"M. Aikembaev's Kazakh Scientific Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, 14 Kapalskaya StreetAlmaty 480074, Republic of Kazakhstan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"M","family":"Begon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Comparative Infectious Diseases and Population and Evolutionary Biology Research Group, School of Biological SciencesUniversity of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3BX, UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2007,1,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_1_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1202.050651"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3545365"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Burnham K.P& Anderson D.R Model selection and inference: a practical information-theoretic approach. 1998 New York NY:Springer.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4757-2917-7_3"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1095854"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_6_1","unstructured":"Davis S. Klassovskiy N. L. Ageyev V. S. Suleimenov B. Atshabar B. Klassovskaya A. Bennett M. Leirs H. & Begon M. In press. Plague metapopulation dynamics in a natural reservoir: the burrow-system as the unit of study. Epidemiol. Infect . (doi:10.1017\/S095026880600759X)."},{"key":"e_1_3_1_7_1","unstructured":"Diggle P.J Statistical analysis of spatial point patterns. 2003 London UK:Arnold."},{"key":"e_1_3_1_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(06)70438-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_9_1","unstructured":"Fedorov V. N. 1944 On mechanism of plague microbe preservation in non-epizootic years. Vestnik mikrob. epidem. i parazitol . Collection of articles devoted to 25-anniversary of Microbes institute pp. 27\u201339."},{"key":"e_1_3_1_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0006-341X.2005.030536.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ento.50.071803.130337"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ento.50.071803.130337"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_13_1","first-page":"165","article-title":"Lasting interruptions in epizootic activity of natural plague foci and their possible causes","volume":"48","author":"Kalabukhov N.I","year":"1969","journal-title":"Zoological Zhurnal"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lindsey J.K Models for repeated measurements. 1999 Oxford UK:Oxford University Press.","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780198505594.001.0001"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lindsey J.K Nonlinear models in medical statistics. 2001 Oxford UK:Oxford University Press.","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780198508120.001.0001"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2005.07.004"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_17_1","unstructured":"Naumov N. P. Zhuchaev A. A. & Varshavskiy S. N. 1959 Conditions of the existence and most important epizootological peculiarities of the Pre-Aral section of the natural plague focus in the Central-Asian plains. In Saratov. Prirod. ochagovost' i epedemiol. osobo opasn. inf. zabolevaniy pp. 65\u201384."},{"key":"e_1_3_1_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2006.0160"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_19_1","unstructured":"Samia N. I. Chan K.-S. & Stenseth N. Chr. 2007. A generalized threshold mixed model for analyzing non-normal nonlinear time series with application to plague in Kazakhstan. Biometrics 94 101\u2013118. (doi:10.1093\/biomet\/asm006)."},{"key":"e_1_3_1_20_1","first-page":"270","article-title":"On the mechanisms of the plague natural focus conservation in Volga-Ural sands","volume":"48","author":"Shevchenko V.L","year":"1969","journal-title":"Zoological Zhurnal"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0602447103"}],"container-title":["Journal of The Royal Society Interface"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1098\/rsif.2006.0208","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1098\/rsif.2006.0208","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1098\/rsif.2006.0208","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,2,10]],"date-time":"2024-02-10T13:36:29Z","timestamp":1707572189000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/10.1098\/rsif.2006.0208"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2007,1,24]]},"references-count":20,"journal-issue":{"issue":"15","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2007,8,22]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1098\/rsif.2006.0208"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1098\/rsif.2006.0208","relation":{},"ISSN":["1742-5689","1742-5662"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1742-5689","type":"print"},{"value":"1742-5662","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2007,1,24]]}}}