{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,3]],"date-time":"2026-10-03T17:07:58Z","timestamp":1791047278280,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":30,"publisher":"The Royal Society","issue":"15","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2007,2,7]],"date-time":"2007-02-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1170806400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/royalsociety.org\/journals\/ethics-policies\/data-sharing-mining\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["J. R. Soc. Interface."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2007,8,22]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n            The discovery of three individuals suspected to have contracted variant Creutzfeldt\u2013Jakob disease (vCJD) through blood transfusions has heightened concerns that a secondary epidemic via human-to-human transmission could occur in the UK. The Department of Health responded immediately to this threat by banning those who had received blood transfusions since 1980 from donating blood. In this paper, we conduct a sensitivity analysis to explore the potential size of a blood-borne vCJD epidemic and investigate the effectiveness of public health interventions. A mathematical model was developed together with an expression for the basic reproduction number (\n            <jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic>\n            <jats:sub>0<\/jats:sub>\n            ). The sensitivity of model predictions to unknown parameters determining the transmission of vCJD via infected blood was assessed under pessimistic modelling assumptions. We found that the size of the epidemic (up until 2080) was bounded above by 900 cases, with self-sustaining epidemics (\n            <jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic>\n            <jats:sub>0<\/jats:sub>\n            &gt;1) also possible; but the scenarios under which such epidemics could arise were found to be biologically implausible. Under optimistic assumptions, public health interventions reduced the upper bound to 250 and further still when only biologically plausible scenarios were considered. Our results support the belief that scenarios leading to large or self-sustaining epidemics are possible but unlikely, and that public health interventions were effective.\n          <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2007.0216","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2007,2,13]],"date-time":"2007-02-13T18:34:12Z","timestamp":1171391652000},"page":"675-684","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":22,"title":["Is there the potential for an epidemic of variant Creutzfeldt\u2013Jakob disease via blood transfusion in the UK?"],"prefix":"10.1098","volume":"4","author":[{"given":"Paul","family":"Clarke","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineKeppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Robert G","family":"Will","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National CJD Surveillance Unit, Western General HospitalCrewe Road, Edinburgh EH4 2XU, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Azra C","family":"Ghani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineKeppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"175","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2007,2,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_3_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/emboj\/cdf653"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1474-4422(06)70413-6"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_4_1","first-page":"223","volume-title":"Methods in molecular medicine: prion diseases","author":"Bruce M.E","year":"1996"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.1994.0036"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/39057"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2004.0017"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_8_1","unstructured":"Det Norske Veritas 2003 Risk assessment of exposure to vCJD infectivity in blood and blood products. 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